You speak of "fad" market dynamics. However, I think you've missed one of the key points I've made which underlines why the Wii isn't going to go down the "fad" path: they have been keeping their new customers satiated with new products which surprise and please them. The wave of ever-increasing-in-number "sleeper hits" is evidence enough of this fact.

Back in the late 1980s, most analysts and industry insiders claimed that the NES would fail due to it being just a passing fad ("Oh, who would want to play games on a TV in the long run? Computers can do so much more!"). The NES did not die, even without endless waves of classics from Nintendo (1987 was almost a dead year for Nintendo software-wise with practically nothing new coming out), because what classics the system did put out kept people coming back to their Nintendos. Newcomers picked up the older classics like the original Zelda, and eventually got the newer games like SMB2, Tetris, and Dr. Mario. Meanwhile the existing customers would take ever-increasing interest in the release of these games as they kept finding new gems to play.

And the analysts actually ignored those "sleeper hits", believe it or not. They focused instead on how "traditional" games did horribly on NES, totally missing the point... Don't make the same mistake in 2008 that analysts in 1988 did.

It seems as if Nintendo's Wii-development is grinding to a halt! Which seems VERY odd since it's the best-selling console EVER!

There are either 2 explanations; of which 1 can only be true!

1) Nintendo doesn't take themself seriously and just fuck it up now that they have a warehouse of greenbacks's stacked somewhere on a secret location.

2) They are cooking a bunch of brilliant stuff up for Wii to get somekind of enormous momentum-boost in mid-09! Potentially to deliver a killing blow! I hope it has something to do with WiiMote+! Also; I hope the lack of 3rd-party stuff announced is because Nintendo is keeping them from unveiling their secret titles which I hope are pretty big and support WM+... I really, REALLY hope so! In short; that there will be some big killer announcements from Nintendo and/or 3rd-parties!

If not; they are fucking it up!

sigh, good games take multiple years to develop. After getting their behind kicked with the Gamecube they released every single one of their biggest franchises in the first 18 months of the Wii. They could do this because the technology between Wii and Gamecube was so similar.

And it worked. While Sony didn't release anything worthwhile in the first 12 months and suffered for it, Nintendo kicked serious butt.

But now it takes multiple years to release the next round of big games and all that is left is the mediocre stuff you mentioned. Doesn't seem to hurt them though.

Sky Render said: You speak of "fad" market dynamics. However, I think you've missed one of the key points I've made which underlines why the Wii isn't going to go down the "fad" path: they have been keeping their new customers satiated with new products which surprise and please them. The wave of ever-increasing-in-number "sleeper hits" is evidence enough of this fact. Back in the late 1980s, most analysts and industry insiders claimed that the NES would fail due to it being just a passing fad ("Oh, who would want to play games on a TV in the long run? Computers can do so much more!"). The NES did not die, even without endless waves of classics from Nintendo (1987 was almost a dead year for Nintendo software-wise with practically nothing new coming out), because what classics the system did put out kept people coming back to their Nintendos. Newcomers picked up the older classics like the original Zelda, and eventually got the newer games like SMB2, Tetris, and Dr. Mario. Meanwhile the existing customers would take ever-increasing interest in the release of these games as they kept finding new gems to play. And the analysts actually ignored those "sleeper hits", believe it or not. They focused instead on how "traditional" games did horribly on NES, totally missing the point... Don't make the same mistake in 2008 that analysts in 1988 did.

I never called the Wii a fad , when you say "Wii" i'd think more "?" than long term success or likely fad.

The successes on the Wii ( Mario Kart , Wii play , SSBB)  doesn't proove the long term viability of the console . The problem isn't so much the Wii itself but the type of demgraphic they have attracted  , the casual gamer tends to be more volatile and upredictable; it's just as likely that the Wii will last for 10 years as it is that it won't last for half that . My guess is that Nintendo will experience long term success due to lack of succesfull casual gaming alternatives but with devices like the Iphone&Ipod growing expontetialy and the possibility of the newly established market attracting more comptetion I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a newcomer stopping the Wii dead.

Personaly I don't see the Wii as a fad but it isn't something i'd invest in for the long term , it's stay strong as long as there isn't a viable alternative but as soon as there is one there's no assurance that the demographic will remain loyal.

Mr Khan said: So here we are, having born full witness to Nintendo's Q1 2009 lineup, which consists of all of 5 games from Nintendo themselves: Personal Trainer: Math, Fire Emblem: Shadow Dragon, Pokemon Platinum, Play on Wii Mario Power Tennis, and Play on Wii Pikmin.   I just find it strange that first party development can slump so hard. Exactly what was Nintendo thinking, or planning? I find it hard to believe that they would deliberately let development slump like this to open a window for 3rd parties, or simply because they don't have to put out software to move units. What exactly could motivate such a slump? We know they have a lot of titles in the works, the evidence is all over the place for stuff from first-party groups like EAD and Retro, and from partners like Factor 5, Next Level Games, Treasure, and Monster Games, but why haven't better strategies been developed to more thoroughly populate each quarter with their high-level releases?   Note: this is not a rant in particular. I myself am picking up Fire Emblem and Pikmin and will enjoy them fully, just pondering why development in general seems to have slumped. Release strategy problem, simple oversight, or something more cognizant.

First, you forgot Punch Out, which I believe is still slated for Q1, and makes the lineup stronger.

I wouldn't call it a slump. Slumps are usually unintentional periods of poor performance. Currently Nintendo's performance is fine, and its games are still either selling well, reviewing well, or both.

What you have here is Nintendo choosing to release these particular titles at this particular time for reasons they have not yet revealed. Whether this will have good or bad results has yet to be seen.

We also don't know what they have in development, though rumors are rampant. If the rumors bear out, and Icarus, Mario and Zelda, among others, are in the pipe, then the slump doesn't exist. Regardless, it is still premature to declare a development slump when you've not seen their entire slate.

 

Well, think what you like, of course. I just find it pertinent to point out that the scenario with the Wii is virtually identical as the scenario with the NES was, and that the end results of this particular generation are shaping up to be a mirror image in many ways.

i think they are accumulating a bunch of almost completed, unannounced games for a "rainy day". whenever the wii stops selling as well as it has been, i think they will release the flood gates, and bring out tons of quality games to raise up demand again?

anyone else think so?

@misterd: Punch Out is not Q1 :/

The only Q1 games are the Wii remakes of the GC games, coming out in March. That's the official line up.

Anyways this is not strange, because this year Nintendo only released 2 games in Q1, althoug both were new games and 1 was perhaps the most acclaimed game by the core Nintendo fans in 2998, I talk about SSBB.

This next Q1 looks really really weak, but third parties are at least here. I hope Nintendo has more games up planned pleaseeeeeeeee, at least for the Holidays, I dont care.

@vonboy: I hope that's not the case, because we wouldnt be seeing any game until late 2010 or even further!

I think people are looking at Nintendo's past days with rose-tinted glasses. Nintendo, as awesome as they are, have NEVER been able to pump out a game like SMG or SSBB ever quarter of the year. Just look at the droughts people had to suffer through during the GC era.