| Sky Render said: You speak of "fad" market dynamics. However, I think you've missed one of the key points I've made which underlines why the Wii isn't going to go down the "fad" path: they have been keeping their new customers satiated with new products which surprise and please them. The wave of ever-increasing-in-number "sleeper hits" is evidence enough of this fact. Back in the late 1980s, most analysts and industry insiders claimed that the NES would fail due to it being just a passing fad ("Oh, who would want to play games on a TV in the long run? Computers can do so much more!"). The NES did not die, even without endless waves of classics from Nintendo (1987 was almost a dead year for Nintendo software-wise with practically nothing new coming out), because what classics the system did put out kept people coming back to their Nintendos. Newcomers picked up the older classics like the original Zelda, and eventually got the newer games like SMB2, Tetris, and Dr. Mario. Meanwhile the existing customers would take ever-increasing interest in the release of these games as they kept finding new gems to play. And the analysts actually ignored those "sleeper hits", believe it or not. They focused instead on how "traditional" games did horribly on NES, totally missing the point... Don't make the same mistake in 2008 that analysts in 1988 did. |
I never called the Wii a fad , when you say "Wii" i'd think more "?" than long term success or likely fad.
The successes on the Wii ( Mario Kart , Wii play , SSBB) doesn't proove the long term viability of the console . The problem isn't so much the Wii itself but the type of demgraphic they have attracted , the casual gamer tends to be more volatile and upredictable; it's just as likely that the Wii will last for 10 years as it is that it won't last for half that . My guess is that Nintendo will experience long term success due to lack of succesfull casual gaming alternatives but with devices like the Iphone&Ipod growing expontetialy and the possibility of the newly established market attracting more comptetion I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a newcomer stopping the Wii dead.
Personaly I don't see the Wii as a fad but it isn't something i'd invest in for the long term , it's stay strong as long as there isn't a viable alternative but as soon as there is one there's no assurance that the demographic will remain loyal.
