PDF said:
Those are the points I made and the points you questioned. I said the Wii market is risky because it is. Not many companies have been able to harnest the selling power of the Wii. Despite many compaies losing money right now they still heavily rely on the HD market and if they gave it up they would really be screwed. The HD market is a market they understand better. HD games are much like a big hollywood block buster. They spend tons of money to make them with the hope of a big pay off.
As long as the pay offs keep coming they will keep making the big blockbuster titles.(i hope)
Its simple. The Wii will get more and more support but we wont see a massive transition. The transition will go slow and steady throughout this gen due to the big differences between the HD consoles and the Wii. We still have so many big games being made that these companies rely on. Games that just wont get the same sales on the Wii.
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That's the problem though: although they're invested in the HD model, and know it well, it's not profitable for the majority of companies. Their revenue is at record high: their profits are all but non-existent. I know you prefer the graphics and power of the HD twins, and more power to you for that, but unfortunately the costs of delivering the awesomeness you love are too high for most third-parties to bear.
Look around for financial data. You can even do so on this site. Companies that are making the blockbusters may be selling millions of copies, but even then the bottom line doesn't increase much. Even worse, if they make even one flop, they're in serious trouble. Today alone we've heard of Free Radical closing down, because Haze did not do well. That's a decade old company with four good games, done in by a single poorly selling (and made) game. THAT'S the definitive sign of an unhealthy business model.
But I'm willing to meet you halfway on this one. If said companies start making precisely the same games on the Wii instead of the HD systems, they won't sell anywhere near as many copies for the first few years, as the market for those games has already settled on the HD consoles. So profits won't be sky-high, certainly not at first.
