The Wii-360 cross over is coming. While John Lucas was slightly off in his predictions, his general concept of the market has been stellar. That said, here is my take on the cross over:
1) When Japanese sales data comes in (btw the new update schedule is Others data - Monday, Americas - Tuesday, Japan - Wendsday) Wii should be at ~10.10 million worldwide. Xbox 360 will be at ~10.323 million worldwide.
2) The 360 pricedrop goes into effect next week. Madden arrives soon (it will show up in the data for the week ending August 18).
3) PS3 sales briefly tripled on the Americas pricedrop. Lets assume 360 sales do as well in week one of the pricedrop in the Americas. Worldwide, that would put 360 sales next week at ~ Americas (35k)(3) + ~ (20k) Others + ~ (3k) Japan.
That is a total of 128k. Wii has yet to have a week where it sold under 160k. With the 'average' 360 price ($449+$349+$279)/(3) at roughly $357 (pretend for a moment that the three skus are sold in equal amounts), and the median price at $350, I don't think the week one sales increase will be 3x last week.
In reality, a boost on the order of 2x current sales should be sustainable through Halo 3's launch, at which point sales will pick up.
That said, next week I expect -
360 - 60,000 to 70,000 (Americas), 20,000 (Others), 3,000 (Japan). I'll call it 88,000.
Wii - 85,000 to 95,000 (Americas), 55,000-65,000 (Others), 70,000-80,000 (Japan) I'll call it 225,000.
For the week ending August 12, 2007:
360 - 10.411 million
Wii - 10.325 million
The next week will be critical. Unlike the previous week, 360 will have a) Madden b) a full week with the pricedrop. 360 sales should decrease on a day-day basis, but hold up as double the week for 360. Madden will be the catalyst for maintaining higher sales. Once again, I expect 360 to sell roughly 88,000 units worldwide.
Wii will be getting Madden as well, but Nintendo may start saving units for Metroid Prime 3. I expect sales to be lower this week - ~200,000 to 210,000 worldwide.
Worldwide, through August 19, 2007:
360 ~ 10.50 million worldwide
Wii ~ 10.53 million worldwide
That is ridiculously close.
Through the 26th of August, Wii should absolutely be in the lead however, even if 360 sells 100,000 per week for the next three weeks. The following week, Metroid Prime 3 arrives, and Wii sales should get a sizable Americas boost.
My projection continues like so:
August 26: Wii - 10.705 million, 360 - 10.618 million
September 2: Wii - 11.00 million, 360 - 10.70 million
September 9: Wii - 11.30 million, 360 -10.78 million
September 16: Wii - 11.55 million, 360 - 10.86 million
September 23 (on the eve of Halo 3): Wii - 11.80 million, 360 - 11.00 million
September 30: Wii - 12.05 million, 360 - 11.20 million (360's first 200k week of 2007)
October 7: Wii - 12.35 million, 360 - 11.35 million
October 14: Wii - 12.55 million, 360 - 11.47 million
October 21: Wii - 12.78 million, 360 - 11.60 million
October 28: Wii - 13.0 million, 360 - 11.72 million
November 4 : Wii - 13.35 million, 360 - 11.90 million
November 11: Wii - 13.70 million, 360 - 12.10 million
November 18 : Wii - 14.20 million, 360 - 12.35 million
November 25 (Post Black Friday): Wii - 14.65 million, 360 - 12.60 million
December 2: Wii - 15.15 million, 360 - 12.90 million
December 9 (Brawl): Wii - 15.75 million, 360 - 13.20 million
December 16: Wii - 16.75 million, 360 - 13.60 million
December 23 (never shop this week.): Wii - 18.25 million, 360 - 14.2 million
December 30: Wii - 19.10 million, 360 - 14.55 million
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Officially, I think it should become to clear to everyone in the industry that Wii has passed 360 sales when quarterly shipment numbers (covering July-September) arrive for Wii & 360 in October. If Nintendo ships another 3.5 million Wiis, and Microsoft ships ~1.5 million 360s or less (remember - in the USA NPD for 360 has been under 200k lately - Vgchartz has 360 at ~140k for July, which would amount to something like a 225k month is likely worldwide. Even if August is 400k worldwide and September is 625k worldwide 1.5 million shipped in the quarter is still a stretch) even by units shipped Wii will have caught 360. During the period, Halo 3 arrives only in the last week, and the pricedrop only covers North America for 54 days of the 92 day quarter, making unexpectedly big shipments quite unlikely.
Currently, Wii sales are stronger than 360 in all three regions - 90k vs. 35k in the Americas this week, 70k vs. 3k in Japan most weeks, and 60k vs. 20k in Others most weeks. A Wii lead of 3 million+ is quickly approaching in Japan - completely offsetting the 360 lead in the Americas since that lead is well under 3 million now - and shrinking. The Euro lead is roughly 500,000 - but that gap should be closed by the end of 2007. I expect Nintendo or Chart Track to release data confirming it.
With Metroid Prime 3 pushing sales, and NPD, Chart Track, MC and Vgchartz to back up Nintendo, I expect an announcement of some kind from Nintendo that they have surpassed 360 in the coming weeks.
When it happens, I suspect a number of 3rd parties will finally wake up to some of the realities of the current market.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
