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Forums - General Discussion - Crow? Nah... I want head of John Lucas :-)

John Lucas will probably sign on midweek when the final tally for July is up and Wii is still 250k or so below 360 and say "Well I was really close..."

However, I really want to see what he says in January when 360 is still a few million ahead in NA. That's the prediction I've always been...wtf John, are you crazy?



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@superchunk - Haha, yeah he's crazy like a fox.



"Whenever you find a man who says he doesn't believe in a real Right and Wrong, you will find the same man going back on this a moment later."   -C.S. Lewis

"We all make choices... but in the end, our choices... make us."   -Andrew Ryan, Bioshock

Prediction: Wii passes 360 in US between July - September 2008. (Wii supply will be the issue to watch, and barring any freak incidents between now and then as well.) - 6/5/08; Wow, came true even earlier. Wii is a monster.

JohnLucas will be 1-2 weeks out. Others tends to be on average 50K above 360 a week, Japan is about 65-75k above 360 and Na is about 50-60K above, so that's only about 180k a week more than the 360, the gap is about 450k, so depending on game releases, 1-2 weeks. Good call back in March though, has to be commended for that. Wii won't pass NA by September 22nd though. It looks like 20 weeks or so it'll happen, so we're talking end of December it'll be ahead of the 360 WW, following current trends.



All I have to say is my prediction below has been there since early march and it appears to be right on.

Now I can't wait for January to see if my other prediction is within 5%.



kber81 said:
HappySqurriel said:

You want head from JOHN LUCAS?


Gehehe. Nah. I'm not interested. My gf blows me like Heather Brooke...

Wow, so you get it on with Heather Brooke as well!

 



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kber81 said:
Ray007 said:

@kber81 - this thread will backfire. Many people here (including myself) respect the man, for having the balls to make such outlandish predicitions far ahead of time. Most people here give credit based on how close a prediction gets... I think it's equally important to consider how far ahead of time the predicition was made.


This thread isn't against John Lucas... it is against his attitude regards sale. 


You shouldn't be picking fights with people,  he's been far more accurate than you after all and now that you have something to hold above him you're going to act like king of hill? Silly silly silly.



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Louie said:
@kber81: What do you think?

Will he admit he was "wrong" or will he say he was correct because vgchartz can be 5% off? I´m looking forward to your conversation

I think he will admit he was wrong. He was pretty close indeed (regards July). I wouldn't start all this witch hunt because of this or any other prediction alone (ok, this new one is totally out of this planet). When you read John Lucas's posts - there is one striking thing - he belief he knows better than anyone. You are just silly, unaware observer who will understand someday meaning of the big prophecy. New prediction (September 22 Wii>X360 NA) is even more outlandish - even if X360 just stopped where it is right now - gap - >2,64 million - in less than 2 months? With what? MP3C?

@ your mother

 



Sporticus/kber81, one of you needs to change avatars cause in the words of Dave Chappel...

"That shit is confusing!"

On topic, if this is meant in jest then by all means, but if this is meant to humiliate or suggest he was wrong, then I would say you need a reality check.  Nobody expected him to be even close to correct, and now that he is probably going to be off by 1-2 weeks (depending on whose definition you go by) I would say it was a damn good prediction and any redicule he might deserve for being a bit off was already given to him when he made the prediction. 

@Superchunk, it depends when it passes the 360 if it passes with Aug 12th numbers then JL was closer. But if you go strictly by wording yours was correct. I personally don't feel that either of you is any more or less right than the other, you got pretty damn close from pretty far out.



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Sqrl said:
Sporticus/kber81, one of you needs to change avatars cause in the words of Dave Chappel...


I'm the real one so I will stay with my avatar. Gball just borrowed it for a while. Probably till another ban. It won't take long. Believe me.



JohnLucas actually turned out to be really accurate. He had been predicting since 2005 that the Wii was going to be the leading console. In March 2007 (when he joined I think) he predicted that the Wii would lead 360 sales WW by the end of July.

So he's like what, 1.5 weeks off? 2 weeks off? pretty impressive if you ask me. professional hurricane forecasters predicted an above-average season this year... yet there hasn't been any hurricanes at all, right?

and @kber.... i don't think he UNDERestimated 360/PS3. i think it was simply that he OVERestimated Nintendo's Production capabilities, haha. There weren't enough Wiis produced to make his forecasts come true.