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Forums - Sales Discussion - Christmas Casualities: Maybe too early to call them?

noname2200 on 07 December 2008
scottie said:
noname2200 said:
scottie said:
LBP and Wii Music selling incredible for new IP. Both will hit 1 million next week, both will hit 2 million lifetime easily, 3 million a possibility.

How the hell is that a flop?

One can argue that both of them have flopped relative to fanboy's expectations. Recall that LBP was supposed to be Sony's biggest property in all three regions this year, and that it was supposed to be a hardware mover as well. Neither has happened.

 

Fixed :P

 

I doubt Sony was the one saying LBP WILL BE HUEG!!!1

Hardware seller:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/littlebigplanet-will-be-hardware-seller-claims-sony

Biggest title in all territories this year:

http://www.videogaming247.com/2008/09/01/yoshida-littlebigplanet-will-be-the-biggest-title-for-sony-in-all-markets-this-year/

 



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Oyvoyvoyv on 07 December 2008
noname2200 said:
scottie said:
noname2200 said:
scottie said:
LBP and Wii Music selling incredible for new IP. Both will hit 1 million next week, both will hit 2 million lifetime easily, 3 million a possibility.

How the hell is that a flop?

One can argue that both of them have flopped relative to fanboy's expectations. Recall that LBP was supposed to be Sony's biggest property in all three regions this year, and that it was supposed to be a hardware mover as well. Neither has happened.

 

Fixed :P

 

I doubt Sony was the one saying LBP WILL BE HUEG!!!1

Hardware seller:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/littlebigplanet-will-be-hardware-seller-claims-sony

Biggest title in all territories this year:

http://www.videogaming247.com/2008/09/01/yoshida-littlebigplanet-will-be-the-biggest-title-for-sony-in-all-markets-this-year/

 

 

Whoa. That's pretty huge indeed.

 

His fixed in your quote was still correct though :P



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

noname2200 on 07 December 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:

 

Whoa. That's pretty huge indeed.

 

His fixed in your quote was still correct though :P

Touche!

 



scottie on 07 December 2008

There we go, Sony actually did say LBP will be huge.

Do we know how Media Molecule responded to the sales?



noname2200 on 07 December 2008

I don't. But I'm sure they're okay with it (they're a small studio. Platinum status is fine by them). Even if they weren't, it's rare for the PR people to put on anything but a happy face.



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bigjon on 07 December 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:

 

 

Well, look at the games.

 

1.- Banjo Kazooie: Nuts and Bolts - What did you expect really. Banjo was big on N64, but Tooie only sold 1.5M. What brought the games forward was their surpreme quality. Rare doesn't have that anymore, but it still looks like the game should break 1M. Not too shabby. What did people really expect? Is it a flop if it sells a bit above 1M instead of 2M? Because if you thought it would sell over 3M, you probably didn't check your info properly. 

 

2.- Bioshock (PS3) - Well, this could be called a flop. Still, 2K is going to make money of it, and I believe it was more of a preparation for Bioshock 2 on Ps3. Could have hoped for better sales, but acceptable indeed. Hey, they went profit, and this definately increased the change of high sales for the sequel, that's pretty good. 

3.- Left 4 Dead - Huh? The 360 version alone should come close to 1M. If you say the PC version retailed 1M, then it sold 2/3 as much as The Orange Box, which was definately a better package, so you would have to call a game that sold 3M a flop too. 

4.- Lips - Surely MS will have made profit of this when all is said and done, and it could break 500K. Still, I can accept some people calling this a flop. 

5.- LIttle Big Planet - It is a flop if you thought it would sell 1M first week. If you did believe that, you were stupid like heck. The title is breaking 1M, and and should beat 2M by the end of the FY. That is going to put it as Sony's 5th best selling Ps3 game, behind 2 games that wouldn't have made 2M if it wasn't for bundles, Uncharted and GT5:P. Overall, it did more than good enough. 

6.- Mirror's Edge - not my field, have no clue really. 

7.- Mortal Kombat Vs DC - So far it has sold 400K combined, and it could end close to 1M. That means only 1 of the 5 Ps2 versions outsold it (but it did with a lot). Traditional fighting games are dieing - this one did good enough. 

8.- MotorStorm: Pacific Rift - has good legs. Should sell good, possibly a million. Not a flop. 

9.- Resistance 2 - So far it looks like it could be below expectations, but not a flop. Also, I would wait for EU sales to go a bit further - that is where the original had over half its sales. 

10.- Tom Clancy's EndWar - No clue

11.- Wii Music - What the hell? It should sell 4M easily. It is the 2nd best selling console music game in Japan, and it should end as the best, or 2nd best selling music game in Others. It did awesome in those 2 regions, and far better than you should expect. In Americas, it didn't do too well, at least not initially. 

 

 

Bottom line, those games are insanely far away from being very big flops. If you take the combined average profit/loss of those titles, I'm sure it would be far higher than the average profit/loss for other games.

Just because you can defend a game and make excuses for it does not mean it is not a flop. If a game falls far below expectations it is a flop. that Said I would only label 1/2 of those game a true flop.

Wii Music, LBP, MK v DC, Left 4 dead, and Bioshock would not qualify as flops in my book.

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Shadowblind on 07 December 2008

Left 4 Dead is practically half a mil in two weeks. I HARDLY call that a flop.



GOTY Contestants this year: Dead Space 2, Dark Souls, Tales of Graces f. Everything else can suck it.

outlawauron on 07 December 2008
Chrizum said:
outlawauron said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
outlawauron said:
@ oy

Uncharted did make 2 million before bundles!

 

 

I know. What I meant was that it is doubtful that Motorstorm or Resistance would have made 2M without bundles. Then 2 other games have also made 2M, Uncharted and GT5:P (was that bundled btw?)

Well that's just not true either. Resistance 1 was bundled for a very brief time in 2007 and amassed less than 200k in sales through the bundles. The game is over 3 million. Motorstorm is the only case you have.

That's just not true. In Europe, every 60GB PS3 was bundled with Motorstorm and Resistance until other SKU's were announced.

Resistance was in a bundle for 3 months. From July to September, Sony put Motorstorm and Resistance in a bundle only in Europe.

Adding the sales from week ending July 14th to October 20th is 681,750 units, and customers in the UK didn't have to get RFOM and Motorstorm, they had a choice.

So the bundles have accounted for ~37% (out of a total 1.87 mil) of Resistance's sales in EU.


The bundle started July 13th. And the Starter Pack was dwindling in supply in late August. I gave you two weeks in July and three weeks in October. It was cancelled for PAL territories outside of EU in September and was stopped in production on October 5th.

Here is the day of annoucement link:

http://www.psu.com/SCEE-reveals-Starter-Pack-for-Europe-News--a691-p0.php

Cancelling link: 

http://kotaku.com/gaming/ps3/scee-ps3-60gb-nixed-for-uk-too-307651.php

This was an effort to get rid of the 60gb backstock in favor of the 80gb model.

 

I am more than generous in my amounts.

 



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

outlawauron on 07 December 2008
Chrizum said:
outlawauron said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
outlawauron said:
@ oy

Uncharted did make 2 million before bundles!

 

 

I know. What I meant was that it is doubtful that Motorstorm or Resistance would have made 2M without bundles. Then 2 other games have also made 2M, Uncharted and GT5:P (was that bundled btw?)

Well that's just not true either. Resistance 1 was bundled for a very brief time in 2007 and amassed less than 200k in sales through the bundles. The game is over 3 million. Motorstorm is the only case you have.

That's just not true. In Europe, every 60GB PS3 was bundled with Motorstorm and Resistance until other SKU's were announced.

 

My numbers were incorrect. (I was estimated off of a previous post I made months ago defending Resistance)

However, the point is the same.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

noname2200 on 07 December 2008
Shadowblind said:

Left 4 Dead is practically half a mil in two weeks. I HARDLY call that a flop.

For a game of this calibre (and cost...) it would be a flop.

But since you're not counting Steam and PC sales, I definitely wouldn't call it a flop.