By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii sales asymptotic limit over 53%

Zucas on 03 December 2008

Why all the want to combine PS3 and 360. What is the motive into HD vs Wii. And if that be true why not combine Wii with PS2 sales since the HD releases as well? Isn't that only fair.

These are the issues I always have with combining things for such reason. It's never about justice when combining it but using the combo as a way of devaluing or valuing something else.

Now what you say is probably true that wii can get to about 53% market share but I keep PS3 and 360 separate. If I were to combine them for an "HD vs not" I'd only fairly have to include sales of the PS2 since 360 released and combine them with Wii. Until then we are looking at a trend right now of Wii getting to 50%, 360 at 30%, and PS3 at 20%. Howeverf I feel in 2009 that 360 and PS3 percentage will start to move towards a median while Wii continues to grow and take shares from both of them.



Around the Network
TheBigFatJ on 03 December 2008
mrstickball said:
Using all of 2008's currently available data, the Wii has sold 53.7% of all next-gen consoles, worldwide.

So because of that ratio (53.7%), we can assume that the Wii should eventually get to that point.

Mind you, the total of 2007's numbers had the Wii at 51.1% of total console sales - so it's margin has actually increased this year over last year's, as of today. However, one should note that the Wii was at 52.0% on the same week last year, so it dropped by 0.9% in December. If the same trend occurred, the Wii may make it to 52.8% on the year.

Of course, it could go the other way - only one of the 2 HD systems got a price cut this year (X360) versus both getting price cuts before Christmas last year (X360 in August, PS3 in October/November).

 

What happened in the holidays last year is that Nintendo ran out of supply and the others had really good Christmas supply.  Then in the following weeks (January) Nintendo and no supply and an empty supply chain from air-freighting Wiis for the holidays.

This year things should be somewhat better, but the 360 is clearly a monster.



Alby_da_Wolf on 03 December 2008
noname2200 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
TheBigFatJ said:

Although you are right about this not being the most appropriate period to evaluate trends, current numbers are so crazy that this Xmas sales weight on the total will be even heavier than normal, so that results achieved at the end of this year will take longer than in the past to be shifted by subsequent sales trends.

Granted, but your original statement concerned the long-term trend of this generation. Whether this holiday season will postpone or hasten that trend is immaterial to the overall point.

 

Yes,  I did too many hypotheses and oversimplifications, mrstickball in his msg just after yours described Wii's sales trend much more accurately (and honestly, distracted by current Wii crazy sales, I was forgetting that starting from zero one year after XB360, Wii simply HAD to have exceeded 50% weekly sales long enough to approach 50% as it's currently doing).

 



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


The Ghost of RubangB on 03 December 2008

Wii will break 53% simply because it will be able to sell for 3-10 years more than its 7th gen competitors.

Also, the Wii's Christmas spikes are huger than its competitors by a large margin, and its been known to break PS360's Christmas bumps in off-months like April.



twitter.com/evaneldeneller

Sunday Fundays

mrstickball on 03 December 2008
TheBigFatJ said:
mrstickball said:
Using all of 2008's currently available data, the Wii has sold 53.7% of all next-gen consoles, worldwide.

So because of that ratio (53.7%), we can assume that the Wii should eventually get to that point.

Mind you, the total of 2007's numbers had the Wii at 51.1% of total console sales - so it's margin has actually increased this year over last year's, as of today. However, one should note that the Wii was at 52.0% on the same week last year, so it dropped by 0.9% in December. If the same trend occurred, the Wii may make it to 52.8% on the year.

Of course, it could go the other way - only one of the 2 HD systems got a price cut this year (X360) versus both getting price cuts before Christmas last year (X360 in August, PS3 in October/November).

 

What happened in the holidays last year is that Nintendo ran out of supply and the others had really good Christmas supply.  Then in the following weeks (January) Nintendo and no supply and an empty supply chain from air-freighting Wiis for the holidays.

This year things should be somewhat better, but the 360 is clearly a monster.

Well, since the X360 is 'clearly a monster' we can't say for certain what variables will be involved this Christmas. Although I don't expect the marketshare of the Wii to drop 0.9% this year (for some of the reasons you mentioned), the fact is: It's been a pretty crazy 4th quarter already, so we can't say with certainty what will happen, until everything is tabulated.

But again, it'd look like the Wii will maintain a 53-54% marketshare in 2008 - up from that 51% in 2007.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.