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mrstickball said:
Using all of 2008's currently available data, the Wii has sold 53.7% of all next-gen consoles, worldwide.

So because of that ratio (53.7%), we can assume that the Wii should eventually get to that point.

Mind you, the total of 2007's numbers had the Wii at 51.1% of total console sales - so it's margin has actually increased this year over last year's, as of today. However, one should note that the Wii was at 52.0% on the same week last year, so it dropped by 0.9% in December. If the same trend occurred, the Wii may make it to 52.8% on the year.

Of course, it could go the other way - only one of the 2 HD systems got a price cut this year (X360) versus both getting price cuts before Christmas last year (X360 in August, PS3 in October/November).

 

What happened in the holidays last year is that Nintendo ran out of supply and the others had really good Christmas supply.  Then in the following weeks (January) Nintendo and no supply and an empty supply chain from air-freighting Wiis for the holidays.

This year things should be somewhat better, but the 360 is clearly a monster.