QFT

@Bod,

Good explanation as usual, I think I have seen you explain this 4 or 5 times now.  I don't know why but a lot of people do seem to think there is just a switch you flip and all of a sudden developer resources are shifted deep in the bowels of the "Development Pit". 

Honestly, it would be a very bad thing if the Wii did get huge shifts all of a sudden, a lot of these third party companies would essentially be giving up on months and in some cases years of work they had already done.  Not to mention that variety is what drives this market and is probably the reason why no company has ever won three consecutive generations..people get tired and want something new by the end of the 2nd gen.  This is a good thing that prevents stagnation. 

That's 6 games, what about all the other games being announced in the last few months for 360 and PS3? These games were in development for a long time because big games like these take time and effort to make, so do you expect all these franchises in the future to be shifted to the Wii now that it's a success?

You cut me me off mid post: excellent out-of-context quotation, Ck. I answered all of yours questions in the portions of the text you cut off.

I'll add only what I've said several times before: pointing to specific games announced for the PS3/360 as proof that development isn't waning is like pointing to a baby in Japan as proof that the population isn't declining (which it is). 

@Ck,

The entire point is that it is a slow change. For all we know the new PS3/360 developments are due to the fact that once the A-team devs are done with their current projects that *were* announced before the Wii's success, they will be switching over to Wii projects. Just because dev teams are starting up new PS3/360 projects doesn't mean that don't have stuff planned for there other teams when they are finished. This whole thing is a cycle, and in fact I would say the fact that these new announcements were made is a good indication that the Wii games are coming.

I want to explain this as best I can since, I think it makes a lot of sense if I can explain it properly...

1) They aren't going to completely kill PS3/360 development, this would be stupid.
2) If you plan on shifting your A-teams (which are currently busy on projects) over to the Wii what do you do with your other dev teams right now?

Well, to answer #2, you look at #1. They are going to move them onto PS3/360 projects to maintain the balance. Then when the A-teams are done with their projects Allocate them over to new Wii developments.

Some might look at this and say "no, they are going to do nothing but PS3/360 developments!" but this just goes against common sense for a company interested in making money. For all previous generations A-team devs spend the majority of their time on the console with the most buzz and the biggest installed base. Right now devs starting new projects are almost certainly assuming the Wii will have the largest install base by the time they launch...

Anyways, I am just carrying on now, hopefully you get the idea.

 This is pretty hard to ignore.  I have seen a lot of studios announce new PS3/360 games since they started fawning over the Wii.  I think they still see it as a risky console.  They aren't familiar with motion controls, and they aren't familiar with designing games specifically for the casual audience the Wii is aimed at.  They are also worried about competing with Nintendo's 1st party games (a very legitimate concern).

I think I gave good reasoning for the new announcments. But as for the part I bolded, I don't think they can have it both ways, either the Nintendo lineup is the biggest competition problem or the 360/PS3 lineups are the biggest competition. Basically either place you go there is competition, on the one hand people want to say how great their lineup is but when it comes to scaring away devs we now talk about how great the Wii lineup is....what???

I think all of that is true, Akuma, and is a logical launch pad for arguing that PS3 and 360 development wont simply cease to exist. 

I still think the PC example is a great one. Is it a smaller platform than PS2 was? Most definitely, when looking at high or even middle end systems. But it still has some superb developers focusing almost exclusively on it and it has some of the greatest games of all time, both from a critical AND commercial perspective. Similarly, even if the PS3 and 360 end up being smaller platforms than the Wii in terms of user base (which I think is likely), not only do I expect development to continue, but I expect some absolutely superb games will come to those platforms, many of which havent even begun development. These are just general trends towards Wii development, not absolute ones, and it will never be close to a monopoly. 

I think it's great that we're seeing lots of games announced for the 360/ps3. It means we're getting something that was sorely lacking in the last gen. Variety. We're not getting three consoles that do the same thing and play the same games. We're getting different gaming experiences.

On the whole I'd say Wii's third party lineup for the rest of 2007 lags behind the other two systems, largely on the strength of Rock Band, COD4 and Assassin's Creed.

But one note I'd make is that with the delay of GTAIV, MySims is probably at the top of the list for biggest potential third party hit on a "current gen" system this year. The big annual franchises may still beat it on PS2 (Madden, FIFA, Guitar Hero, Need for Speed), but I can certainly see MySims competing with any and every third party game on PS3 or 360.

The others are quick cash-ins.  NiGHTS and Boogie (like No More Heroes) were being prepared long before the Wii launched.  I have never expected the Wii to get all the old games from last generation.  I think old sequels (by and large) will remain on the 360 and PS3.  However, I think big project new IPs will by and large be on the Wii.  I don't think the PS3 or 360 will stop getting games, I just think it's very unlikely that they will get the majority of developer focus.