Below are GamerMetrics' lists of the top 10 games scheduled for release on PS3 and Xbox 360 this year that could benefit from GTA IV's delay:

Xbox 360

• 1. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (71% overlap)
  
• 2. Assassin's Creed (62%)
  
• 3. Heavenly Sword (59%)
  
• 4. Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (57%)
  
• 5. Haze (52%)
  
• 6. Lair (51%)
  
• 7. Ratchet & Clank: Tools of Destruction (41%)
  
• 8. Unreal Tournament 3 (35%)
  
• 9. Army of Two (30%)
  
• 10. Folklore (30%)
  

I thought that overlap was some measure about relative release dates, but it's actually measuring gamers' interest in buying two games (GTA4 and each game). Cool. More as soon as I figure out what those numbers imply in the PS3 vs 360 war.

It's called GamerMetrics.

It cross-refferences the clickthrough, and other properties of a particular game getting associated with another.

IE, what the chances are that a person that is interested in game X is also interested in game Y.

IE: Gamer Bob checks out Super Mario Galaxy Page, then goes over to Super Smash Brothers Brawl. 80% of the people do this for SMG>SSBB, but only 25% from SSBB>SMG. This would illustrate the anticipation of a given game, and the fanbase connected to it (Im just using a random idea).

Having said this, it means that the X360 fanbase was already very, very strongly looking at Call of Duty 4 to buy as well as GTAIV. This means that CoD4 is going to massively benefit from a delay in GTAIV. How much? Who knows. There is no extrapolation data to sugguest given numbers. However, without GTA, that leaves litterally MILLIONs of gamers worldwide without the GTAIV Holiday purchase option.

So this *might* give us a good idea where sales will go: Call of Duty 4 and Assassains Creed are going to benefit the most. Likewise, Mass Effect and Rockband for X360 and Heavenly Sword and Drake's will probably garner more sales too. The rest are unknown - they should increase too.

Another great example would be Call of Duty 3 last year (X360) versus Gears versus Rainbow Six Vegas, and recent Japan bombs/ubersellers Dewy's Adventure and Mario Party 8.

In the first example, Gears outsold CoD3 and RSV combined 2:1, and just trounced them for the holiday season. However, CoD3 and RSV eventually were million-sellers. Nevertheless, they didn't live upto CoD2 and GRAW1 precedents for sales. Gears was *the* shooter of 2006 for those owners. Both RSV/CoD3 ended up doing very well, but without Gears, they would of done better.

Likewise, Dewy's Adventure was a moderately-hyped game that was supposed to do One Piece-ish numbers (40k first week, give or take), but bombed horridly. Why? You had MP8, DQS and Gundam 0079 selling huge ammounts, leaving consumers with little extra cash to pick up a more niche title like Dewy's that woulda sold well had it released 2 weeks from now or 2 weeks before DQS.

Hmmm still CoD4 will be hurt by Halo3...I thikn Assasins Creed will be benefited most.

assasins creed benefited the most and cod 4 as well.

All big games coming out these holidays on 360 and PS3 will benefit from GTA IV's delay and that's a fact. Especially the biggest games (COD, AC, ME)...

Call of Duty 4 will suffer from Halo 3 in my opinion but not massively so. On the PS3 and PC it won't have this problem, and on the 360, many big FPS fans will pick up both.

On the other hand, people who buy games few and far between, even FPS fans among them are a lot less likely to buy COD 4 on the 360 just because Halo 3 is coming out two months earlier and can be played a lot without the need for another game to play...