hmmm i dont know what to say,
we all know that wii will probably sell as much as available
for xbox 360 it really depends on if the titles can really push sells (halo 3, mass effect, bioshock, lost odyssey for japan and rpg lovers) and price cuts can do it

For ps3 i have no clue, even with pricecut i dont think it will do to well, but who knows

Agreed, and congratulations is the more realistic prevision as i seen, except for the GTA4 (delayed).

PS3 doesn't have a 'Gears of Wars' to compete in christmas, and GT5 is a demo.

The PS3 60 gb unit is not even close to disappearing, even after August they will be around abundantly. It will still be around till the holidays.

Personally I think you are underestimating the PS3, especially in August, September and October.

This is also assuming that the PS3 80 gb unit doesn't drop to 500 dollars after the 60 gb units run out close to the end of the year.

These predictions are too optomistic on the 360 side and pesemistic on the PS3 side, particular for August and September. I think the holiday numbers are pretty close to what I think they'll turn out to be, maybe with slightly higher numbers for both the Wii and PS3.

Here is my take on the 80 gig PS3 taking over as the dominant sku - I've been checking local stores recently and asking the clerks about future 60 gig PS3 shipments. 

Most places (8 out of the 10 stores) said they didn't expect any new shipments of the 60 gig PS3 to come.  The other two stores didn't know anything either way.

To me, that means one of two things at the 8 stores:

1) The stores have so many unsold 60 gig PS3's in boxes in the back that they will not be ordering new PS3s for awhile. 

2) The 60 gig pricedrop was used to clear out 60 gig PS3s on store shelves.  That allows the PS3s stored in the backrooms of retailers to go to the actual storefront - where customers (gamers) can buy them.  With the excess inventory gone, Sony switches the backroom build up to the 80 gig model, and over time (Aug-Nov) the 80 gig SKU slowly replaces the 60 gig PS3 in stores across the USA.  Knowing that they will sell well over the holidays - even at $600 - Sony has positioned the new $600 sku as the primary PS3 hardware while minimizing the losses Sony takes on each console sold.

I really believe it is option two.  I see the split like this:

Nov 06' - Jan 07'

60 Gig PS3 - $600/ 80%+ of all PS3s sold

20 Gig PS3 - $500/<20% of all PS3s sold

Jan 07' - July 07'

60 Gig PS4 - $600 - clearing as much inventory as possible as 80 gig PS3 production begins

Aug 07'

Pricedrop moves most of the 60 gig PS3's from Sony's warehouses to store warehouses.  Some stores sell out of the 60 gig PS3 - but Sony has negotiated with them to take the 80 gig PS3 after they sell out of the last shipment of the 60 gig PS3.

The split is still like 80/20 in favor of the 60 gig PS3 however due to price and availability.

Sept-Oct 07'

Most stores finally sell through the old 60 gig PS3 shipments, production for the 80 gig SKU ramps up for Nov-Dec.

The split is like 60/40 in September in favor of the 60 gig PS3, but switches to 60/40 in favor of the 80 gig PS3 by October.

November-Dec 07'

When PS3 sells in highest volume, the 80 gig PS3 is the predominant PS3 - saving Sony millions in losses.

The split is 80/20.

I believe in late December a new SKU will be manufactured - and Sony will begin phasing out the currently 'new' 80 gig SKU before GTA IV arrives in Feb-April 2008.

This is all speculative, but I think financially it makes alot of sense for Sony.

Edit: Here is support for what I just wrote: http://www.gaming-age.com/news/2007/8/6-9

Sony Computer Entertainment America Announces Availability of New 80GB PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3)

Million-Selling Online Racing Game MotorStorm Packed In With New System; Sales of Existing 60GB PS3 Continue to Surge

FOSTER CITY, Calif., Aug. 6 /PRNewswire/ -- Sony Computer Entertainment America Inc. (SCEA) today announced the availability of a new 80GB PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at online and brick-and-mortar retailers in the United States and Canada. The system, available immediately for a suggested retailer price of $599US/$659 CND, comes with the hit online-enabled off-road racing game MotorStorm packed in the box.

Featuring an expanded hard disk drive, the new 80GB PS3 is designed to appeal to the online gaming and entertainment enthusiast, providing ample storage space to download more games and other entertainment content from PLAYSTATION Network. There are currently more than 60 playable games and game-related downloads available through PLAYSTATION Store, with expanded entertainment content coming soon. The new model features the million-selling game MotorStorm in the box, allowing up to 12 players to play online at one time, hitting the dirt in this visually-arresting, fast-paced racing title.

"The 80GB PS3 offers expanded options in the PS3 family of products for those who want to enjoy more downloadable content," said Peter Dille, senior vice president of marketing, SCEA. "The new model will provide ample storage space to meet the appetites of those who wish to download content today, and for many more years to come. With the expanded disk capacity and dynamic system upgrades, we have effectively created a system that is 'future-proof', providing consumers an exceptional entertainment value that will stand the test of time."

The 80GB model joins the existing 60GB PS3 that has been available at retail since launch last November. The 60GB PS3 is currently enjoying a surge in sales following a price reduction in the US and Canada on July 9 of $100 to $499/$549 CND. Since that date, unit sales at the company's top five retailers have jumped 113% when compared to the average sales of four weeks prior to the price drop. SCEA will continue to sell the 60GB in the US and Canada at the new, reduced price until current inventory is depleted, which is predicted to be this fall based on current consumer demand.

Throughout the holidays and this fiscal year, more than 120 new first and third-party software titles will be available for North American PS3 users to enjoy, in addition to the more than 40 software titles currently available. Key upcoming first-party titles include Folklore, Heavenly Sword, LAIR, NBA '08, Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction, SingStar, SOCOM: U.S. Navy SEALs Confrontation, THE EYE OF JUDGMENT, Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, PAIN, and Warhawk.

Both the 80GB and 60GB PS3 models come standard with Cell Broadband Engine (Cell/B.E.), built-in hard disk drive, 1080p high-definition output, Wi-Fi connectivity, SIXAXIS wireless controller and Blu-ray Disc player. According to Nielsen VideoScan, there are currently more than 270 high-definition Blu-ray Disc movies available at retail, including the recently released "300," "Shooter," and "Ghost Rider."

But that press release doesn't mean they won't have a non bundled 80 gb SKU at 500 dollars after the 60 gb units are sold out. Especially that these new units are less costly to make, the 500 dollar price tag on them won't hurt as much as the one now on the 60 gb units.

For the Wii sells number:

Nintendo is planing to have shipped a total of 22 millions untill end of fiscal year 07. Now Nintendo has sold roughly 10 millions Wii now, that leaves 12 millions until marsch next year. Assuming that Nintendo ships 1 million WW each month after holidays, januari, februari and Marsch, we can remove 3 millions from that number. That leaves us with 9 millions WW. That I think will leaves us the possibility for a total sale of 3-4 millions in USA. I think that USA will get the lion share (4 millions) followed by Japan (3 millions) and last as usual PAL (2 millions). Of course this is just assumptions. BUT 3-4 millions should be max in USA.

I'm not denying that possibility ckmlb. I just think Sony wants to get rid of the 60 gig sku as soon as possible because of the advantages in cost.

By the time the 60 gig is phased out completely, it should be October - so there won't be a need for a $500 version of the 80 gig SKU since the game adds $60 in value to gamers even if it only costs Sony a fraction of that. Sony I think will stay at $600 w/ the game because that amounts to roughly the same drop in price (at least to people who want Motorstorm) Microsoft will be giving the 360.

With Elite as the precedent, I don't think the 80 gig Motorstorm PS3 will be seen as a pricehike from last X-mas when the $500 SKU was available because the hardware upgrade and game just about offset the lack of a $500 pricepoint

I thought 22 Millions in the fiscal year? It started about March (5.9 Million Units). If you count shipped = Sold meaning they have about 18 Millions left til march (not 12). Also keep in mind, the only region the Wii is avaible any time at the moment is Others (Europe). It got a big share of the already increased production. Makes sense to Nintendo, they have the strongest competition there. Also I think, Nintend is keeping that number "low". I think they can ship more (25 Millions). I think they upping prodiction big time at the moment, and america is getting this time the big piece of the pie. I think the Wii will be avaible in North America begin of september. Either that or the numbers sold get trough the roof this month. I excpect Nintendo to ship every week more to NA this month. I think the shipments at begin of September will be 150-175k a week.