Killzone - I don't see blueray adoption being as quick as dvd adoption so it isn't an advantage this year. Alot of people bought dvds because they wanted to upgrade to a lasting format (videotapes stopped working after awhile, dvds don't). HD-DVD also stands as a semi-viable format to ciphon off blue ray sales.
Lastly, I expect blue ray players to be cheaper than PS3 by X-Mas.

libellule..by 'lake' do you mean 'lack'? I hope that is the word so I'm not misinterepreting your sentiment...

I don't think Sony needs a worldwide PS3 pricedrop. The starter pack will help in Europe. Sales will increase in Japan and the USA. But Sony loses less money on the new 80 gig SKU. So from a money making perspective - Sony has to get the old sku out of the USA as soon as possible. I think it will be gone pretty soon - even if Sony has to take some of the inventory back from stores.

I would lower the Wii estimate to 3.5 million because I believe it will still be supply-constrained out over the holidays. Not for the lack of great titles though; software sales will still act like it sold 4.5 million units.

I would lower the Xbox 360 to last year's sales on the basis of no real price cut and the fact everyone who wants Halo 3 would tend to already have a 360 for their other probable favourites Crackdown and Gears of War.

I would raise the PS3's sales to 1 million simply on brand-name strength with parents because like you said $600 does not present much of a barrier at Christmas and it "doubles as a Blu-ray Player" which encourages money-rich, time-poor parents to buy it for their children regardless of utility or Blu-ray's true value.

Another thing to consider is that when Halo 2 was released the XBox was $150 ... The XBox 360 will be (at least) twice the price when Halo 3 is released.

I think the Wii numbers are fine. The PS3 numbers might be a little low. It all depends on these next couple of weeks whether the 360 price drop will affect the recent surge in PS3 sales.

I see Br being adopted quick, not as fast dvd of course but at a good pace mainly driven by healthy hdtv adoption and the value of the PS3. Br has to much exclusive support for hddvd to really take any sales from it at the end of the year. And i think the cheepest Br stand alone player will be 499, PS3 is just a much better buy.

2.3/2.5 million for next 5 months.

PS brand name.
BR success
AAA software

Seems reasonable. Always love your analysis source!

 PS Brand Name: Shouldn't this has worked all of this year? Doesn't the fact that it didn't suggest gamers are more interested in price or game library than brand loyalty? It will function to some degree I agree, but not that much.

 BD Success: Yes, versus HD-DVD, but only because PS3 is a BD player sold at a loss. Versus DVD, which all major movies are also being released on with usually the same quality on non-HDTVs for much cheaper on a player everyone already owns.

 AAA Software: Name the exclusive upcoming titles you imagine will sell just as well as Halo 3 or Super Smash Bros. Brawl. If you can do that, try competing with Mario Galaxy, Metroid, and all the other games TheSource listed.

Performance: (You didn't mention this, but it's the other common argument): In theory, yes. In practice, it's cheaper, quicker and easier to extract more performance from the 360. Most developers except Sony will only use the main core (1/3 of 360's power) and at most 1 or 2 SPEs (Look at the desktop, big name publishers are struggling to use even dual-core processors effectively , let alone six specialized ones.

Anyone brave enough to post their hardware projections?

Wii 3.5
PS3 2.3
360 2.7
Ps2 1.2 

I would be much better at predicting console sales in my homeland, though I would not mind giving a ball-Park figure for the remainder of the year in the USA.

Wii-4M limited by supply.
IF they divert units from Europe/Japan, I could see it doing another 250k. EDIT: IF 360 gets a price drop, Wii demand may decrease some for the holiday, but Wii will still sell through whatever is supplied.

360-3M limited by price drop.
IF it recieves another price drop across all other systems, I could see it doing, at least, another 250k. Price drop could increase sales as much as 500k.

PS3-1.7M limited by software-I could see some of titles slipping the holiday launch period, and many not having a big impact on hardware sales.
IF there is a $500 PS3 available during the holiday, I could see it doing another 250k. IF the 360 gets another price drop, I could see it doing 200k LESS. IF both get a price drop, my original number stands.

UPDATED: Wii