Well with the year pretty much over the PS3 isn't going to drop below 120k again (if it does Sony might as well pack it up), so I was checking over Leo-J's prediction that the PS3 would not drop below 120k for a single week during 2008.
It turns out that there were three weeks: July 25th, Aug 1st, and Aug 8th.
Other than that everything is above 120k and in most weeks by a good margin. By the strictest terms Leo-J's prediction was incorrect. But going by the complete mocking he recieved for the prediction at the time I think Leo deserves to serve a bit of crow for this prediction. And I've prepared a few stats to show exactly why:
Week Ending Jan 4th through Oct 24th:
- Average Week: 173,345
- Median Week: 161,897
- Min Week: 116,729
- Max Week: 335,964
- Note: I excluded the holidays which means these numbers don't enjoy any holiday boost.
So you tell me, who was right? The guy who was mocked for a prediction that fell short by less than 3% in one week, 0.6% short in a second week, and 0.03% short in a third week. Or was it those who mocked him whose predictions were wrong in 49 out of 52 weeks.
Going by an average or a median, Leo-J's prediction was actually low by 44.4% and 35.0% respectively.
So while he doesn't deserve full credit, he was a hell of a lot closer than anyone else, and the kicker is that I must include myself in the group. So for those who still have the guts to admit when you're wrong (myself included), eat up:
I'll leave this to an honor system, for those who have it. So for those who told him his prediction was crazy you can eat your crow, and those who didn't call him crazy but know they would have if they were there...well you can give the man some credit as well.
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| To Each Man, Responsibility |
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