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Forums - Sales - Extrapolating Sales Data - With Images!

shams on 03 August 2007
leo-j said:
You guys keep doubting the ps3 as usual...you should make a chart that shows what would happen if they release a model priced at $399.99 this holiday season..

Not much doubt in that PS3 graph. The holiday bump is almost as large as the 360, given less "mega" hits and a higher price.

Agree about the gradient of the Wii curve after the holidays. It will/should match the curve pre-holidays, whereas you will see the PS3/360 curves more or less return to normal (for a while anyway).

 

 



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tabsina on 03 August 2007

The keyword being "if", you should also make a chart that shows what would happen if they gave wiis out for free with a massive stock boost



nintendo_fanboy on 03 August 2007
z64dan said:
steven787 said:
It's a nice start. You can do a lot of things from there. Consider release dates, sales from similar future releases, etc. Nice work.

Yeah maybe I can do one later that adds in the Halo3 release... That should boost 360 a bit. Also I didn't take into account the 360 price cut...

 It's hard to predict how Nintendo's sales are going to play out. Will they reveal their super secret warehouse when Galaxy is released? Metroid? Smash Bros? Do they HAVE a warehouse?


I'm sure they will bring more Wii's to stores when their big hits are released, they already did so with Mario Party or Super Paper Mario.



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freedquaker on 03 August 2007

I agree 100% with the first figure by all means! This is graphically exactly what I have been estimating with the safety intervals (including max-min figures).

My estimates by the year end were/are...

Wii - 14,5-15 mil
360 - 11,5-12,5 mil
PS3 - 5-6 mil



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

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dallas on 03 August 2007

Not bad. Instead of a net total, redo the chart and show month to month sales, b/c these would be better to show long-term market potential anyway.



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TWRoO on 03 August 2007
freedquaker said:
I agree 100% with the first figure by all means! This is graphically exactly what I have been estimating with the safety intervals (including max-min figures).

My estimates by the year end were/are...

Wii - 14,5-15 mil
360 - 11,5-12,5 mil
PS3 - 5-6 mil

i would say all three of those are too low, if wii doesnt increase shipments it will make 15 million easy, ps3 will reach 5 million before the hols so over 6 is definate, and 360 will be minimum 13.5 mil by year end.

Punisher on 03 August 2007

Yup, Wii curve after X-mas should remain in same angle before X-mas sales :p



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z64dan on 03 August 2007
Punisher said:
Yup, Wii curve after X-mas should remain in same angle before X-mas sales :p

Yeah I was considering doing that... maybe in a couple weeks I will re-do these charts with updated numbers...



senatorpjt on 03 August 2007

If Wiis become readily available, I think you'd see sales drop off pretty severely. People are holding off on buying the PS3/360 until the price drops. The Wii is already cheap, just unavailable.



Sqrl on 03 August 2007
freedquaker said:
I agree 100% with the first figure by all means! This is graphically exactly what I have been estimating with the safety intervals (including max-min figures).

My estimates by the year end were/are...

Wii - 14,5-15 mil
360 - 11,5-12,5 mil
PS3 - 5-6 mil

 You do realise his first picture is current sales rates with variation, but they also assume there is going to be no holiday sales growth.  So in essence you are basically saying your numbers assume one of the following...

  1. That all consoles will have severely diminished sales from now until the end of the year
  2. There will be no holiday sales boost at all.
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