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I agree 100% with the first figure by all means! This is graphically exactly what I have been estimating with the safety intervals (including max-min figures).

My estimates by the year end were/are...

Wii - 14,5-15 mil
360 - 11,5-12,5 mil
PS3 - 5-6 mil



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates