I totally have to agree there. This game is very well hyped and I've read from several sites (in general, they're about even on the harshness scale) that it's the best controled FPS on any console ever. I think it will do well enough within the hardcore crowd to sell out the first week (so I'll say 225k first week) and slow down to about 1/3 or 2/7 of that by the end of September, leading to about 625k (roughly calculated using an exponential sequence) sales or so by then. I love this game, and for that I'm going to put end of the year sales at 1.1 million.

Summary:
First Week: 225k
End of Semptember: 625k
End of the Year: 1.1mil

But why such a high end of the year number? Well, I think atleast 700-800k can be expected of the hardcore crowd. This is the FPS for a system that shows so much potential for them. I don't care if it's the least of the Big Three, it's still very big. I'm banking on the controls and the genre for the other 300-400k sales. I think it will work quite like the Wii did with word of mouth and first hand experience leading to getting one of their own (oh, and hopefully a nice marketing strategy). I'm thinking the controls, while certainly not as simple as something like Wii Sports, will be so intuitive that casual gamers will be able to play the game (proficiently, not in a pro manner) within thirty minutes.

Couple the above idea with the fact that all the 12 year old kiddies think that FPS = hardcore and mature and teh pwnzorz and I think the game should do well (okay, Metroid is extremely mature and undoubtedly not a casual game and looks to be very good, but that's not the point).

Maybe because I'm very, very pessimistic regards Wii also I think Wii owners are much more casual than GC's... FPS? Nah...

Red Steel has already sold over a million worldwide, do you really think Metroid Prime 3 will only barely top that?

Actually, you MIGHT be right. My personal opinion is that a lot of people don't like the MP series specifically because it's not a "normal" FPS.

I guess I'm dragged in...

First week NA: 230K
Lifetime NA: 1.5 mln
Lifetime world: 2.1 mln.

1 copy on release for sure...mine :p

Don't let that first person view fool you Kber. It's a First Person Adventure game. I'm playing Prime right now and I'm completely blown away by how awesome it is. It truly is the 2D metroid arriving in the third demention. I'd say it has more in common with Twilight Princess than the FPS genre.  And if you haven't noticed, twilight Princess is doing pretty good.

Hell, Strikers Charged did over 15,000 in it's first week NA. Corruption should double that number.

Corruption should easily blow past Prime's 2.77 Million World Wide.

@Montana, I wouldn't say EVERYONE is going to buy those games....I'm not. I'm buying Metroid Prime 3: Corruption on day one, and I'm sure a lot of fans will to. Enough to warrant it a 150-200k launch week.
I just think you're too pessimistic.

Thank you.

I'm not trying to discredit MP3C... to be honest if I was Wii owner I would buy this game (along with Z:TP and RE4)... I just think this game is too... core or even hard core for large part of Wii users. Sure every single N-fan of this forum knows about MP3C and probably will buy it but this isn't an indicator of sale in general. If there is console which has no good reflection in the net - it's Wii... Still 750k for USA alone is really descent.

200 k launch
1 mil end of year worldwide
2.4 mil lifetime world wide

according to a dutch retailer thats spot on it will come to europe 26st oct 2007.
Together with these other games. I am not sure bully fits in there. I think it was 2008 for us could be eu is earlier.
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption 26/10/2007
NBA Live 08 26/10/2007
An Arctic Tale 26/10/2007
Bully: Scholarship Edition 26/10/2007
Thrillville: Off the Rails 26/10/2007

With a readily growing Wii userbase in America I think this could see higher sales then previous titles. Especially seeing that it's coming out with its only competition being Madden 08 which on a Nintendo platform has never been strong competition for a Nintendo game.

I'm going to kinda go out of the box here and think a little bit higher numbers. For one there is quite a fanbase for the Metroid games. Reason first week sales on 1 and 2 Prime weren't so high is becuase it was a resurrection of a series and then an underhyped/overclouded Echoes title.

This time Metroid 3 is in the clear, part of the triforce of bit Wii games, and has a huge, loyal fanbase. I think this could be the best selling Metroid game ever.

So as I said goign to jump a little out of the box of others and take a larger guess:

1st week- 400k
End of Sept- 900k
End of the Year- 1.5 million

All for America. It'll probably also sell better in Europe. Possibly a million in its lifetime there. In a lifetime in America possibly over 2 million. In Japan about the same. 100k maybe. So I think this could go triple platinum.