By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS3 might not be able to overtake the 360

Smashchu2 on 28 November 2008
kn said:
Smashchu2 said:

Before I begin, I want to say PLEASE don't make this a console ware thing. I'm just trying to look at sales.

From some calculations I did, I don't think the PS3 can possibly beat out the 360 at the end of this generation. Here is how I got there. The gap is 6.24million units. The PS3 typically sold ~50k a week over the 360 (when it beat the 360 weekly). If you use this number, it will take ~125 weeks to meet the gap (about 124.5). So, if the trend was to change now it will meet 360 sales in March 2011 or so.

The problem though is two fold

  1. The 360 is starting to beat the PS3 weekly. Normally it was the other way around. But recently, the 360 has been beating the PS3 again (much like in 2007). The problem us a matter of time. Every week the 360 beats the PS3 is lost ground. It not only means that the gap will widen, but it will take much longer to fill this lose. Sony is pressed for time if it wishes to take 2nd place.
  2. The generation will end arounf 2011. The generations have been getting shorter and shorter, and, with neither of these consoles straying from the old business model, it's likely to be this way too. Last generation lasted from 2000-2006. This is the long range (from the PS2 launch to the Wii launch). Most consoles live for ~5 years with the mark being met in 2011. Some may try to say the 10 year life cycle, but with Microsoft as a power competator and the system's weak reception, they can not let Microsoft beat them to the punch. They will have to make a system if Microsoft is.

So, that's what I'm looking at. The chances looked good for the system, but it may be too far gone since the PS3 isn't winning on a weekly basis.

Lol, I made the exact same post many months ago and got hammered by the local village idiots. Check it out:

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=24476

 

I said something like Holidays 2010 if the PS3 was going to catch it at all.... And that major price moves would skew things. Nice. Now we are here one year later and that pushes the "win" by the PS3 out another year, if it happens at all.

 

Interesting. Although I wouldn't say you were bashed (I've seen worse). It is interesting to note a lot of the predictions made by the replies were wrong. Given, that was before we realized that software isn't pushing the HD Bros.

 



Around the Network
kn on 28 November 2008
Smashchu2 said:
kn said:
Smashchu2 said:

Before I begin, I want to say PLEASE don't make this a console ware thing. I'm just trying to look at sales.

From some calculations I did, I don't think the PS3 can possibly beat out the 360 at the end of this generation. Here is how I got there. The gap is 6.24million units. The PS3 typically sold ~50k a week over the 360 (when it beat the 360 weekly). If you use this number, it will take ~125 weeks to meet the gap (about 124.5). So, if the trend was to change now it will meet 360 sales in March 2011 or so.

The problem though is two fold

  1. The 360 is starting to beat the PS3 weekly. Normally it was the other way around. But recently, the 360 has been beating the PS3 again (much like in 2007). The problem us a matter of time. Every week the 360 beats the PS3 is lost ground. It not only means that the gap will widen, but it will take much longer to fill this lose. Sony is pressed for time if it wishes to take 2nd place.
  2. The generation will end arounf 2011. The generations have been getting shorter and shorter, and, with neither of these consoles straying from the old business model, it's likely to be this way too. Last generation lasted from 2000-2006. This is the long range (from the PS2 launch to the Wii launch). Most consoles live for ~5 years with the mark being met in 2011. Some may try to say the 10 year life cycle, but with Microsoft as a power competator and the system's weak reception, they can not let Microsoft beat them to the punch. They will have to make a system if Microsoft is.

So, that's what I'm looking at. The chances looked good for the system, but it may be too far gone since the PS3 isn't winning on a weekly basis.

Lol, I made the exact same post many months ago and got hammered by the local village idiots. Check it out:

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=24476

 

I said something like Holidays 2010 if the PS3 was going to catch it at all.... And that major price moves would skew things. Nice. Now we are here one year later and that pushes the "win" by the PS3 out another year, if it happens at all.

 

Interesting. Although I wouldn't say you were bashed (I've seen worse). It is interesting to note a lot of the predictions made by the replies were wrong. Given, that was before we realized that software isn't pushing the HD Bros.

 

 

Just curious if you read the whole thread... It's a bit long, lol.  I guess it wasn't bashing from a whole bunch of people, but a small handful of the regular knuckleheads.  It is funny, though, the awesome predictions from some of the "regulars"...



I hate trolls.

Systems I currently own:  360, PS3, Wii, DS Lite (2)
Systems I've owned: PS2, PS1, Dreamcast, Saturn, 3DO, Genesis, Gamecube, N64, SNES, NES, GBA, GB, C64, Amiga, Atari 2600 and 5200, Sega Game Gear, Vectrex, Intellivision, Pong.  Yes, Pong.

ymeaga1n on 28 November 2008
kn said:
Smashchu2 said:
kn said:
Smashchu2 said:

Before I begin, I want to say PLEASE don't make this a console ware thing. I'm just trying to look at sales.

From some calculations I did, I don't think the PS3 can possibly beat out the 360 at the end of this generation. Here is how I got there. The gap is 6.24million units. The PS3 typically sold ~50k a week over the 360 (when it beat the 360 weekly). If you use this number, it will take ~125 weeks to meet the gap (about 124.5). So, if the trend was to change now it will meet 360 sales in March 2011 or so.

The problem though is two fold

  1. The 360 is starting to beat the PS3 weekly. Normally it was the other way around. But recently, the 360 has been beating the PS3 again (much like in 2007). The problem us a matter of time. Every week the 360 beats the PS3 is lost ground. It not only means that the gap will widen, but it will take much longer to fill this lose. Sony is pressed for time if it wishes to take 2nd place.
  2. The generation will end arounf 2011. The generations have been getting shorter and shorter, and, with neither of these consoles straying from the old business model, it's likely to be this way too. Last generation lasted from 2000-2006. This is the long range (from the PS2 launch to the Wii launch). Most consoles live for ~5 years with the mark being met in 2011. Some may try to say the 10 year life cycle, but with Microsoft as a power competator and the system's weak reception, they can not let Microsoft beat them to the punch. They will have to make a system if Microsoft is.

So, that's what I'm looking at. The chances looked good for the system, but it may be too far gone since the PS3 isn't winning on a weekly basis.

Lol, I made the exact same post many months ago and got hammered by the local village idiots. Check it out:

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=24476

 

I said something like Holidays 2010 if the PS3 was going to catch it at all.... And that major price moves would skew things. Nice. Now we are here one year later and that pushes the "win" by the PS3 out another year, if it happens at all.

 

Interesting. Although I wouldn't say you were bashed (I've seen worse). It is interesting to note a lot of the predictions made by the replies were wrong. Given, that was before we realized that software isn't pushing the HD Bros.

 

 

Just curious if you read the whole thread... It's a bit long, lol.  I guess it wasn't bashing from a whole bunch of people, but a small handful of the regular knuckleheads.  It is funny, though, the awesome predictions from some of the "regulars"...

lol, it's quite funny reading the boneheaded predictions of the past.

 




Turin Turambar on 28 November 2008

You know what's really funny MikeB...I just went to Gamestop today (I'm Italian) and the price of the Xbox360 Arcade was 179.80 euros...I thought that 179.80 was closer to 180 than to 149...funny...really funny



Sometimes even if you know what you are going to lose, you got to go fight. That's part of being a man.  Eikichi Onizuka

mrstickball on 28 November 2008

Good analysis.

The issue that we must ask is "How big will the PS3/X360 gap be, when the Playstation 3 has a chance to overtake the X360 on a weekly basis?"

If the rumors are true that it'll be March before the Playstation 3 gets a price cut - How much bigger is that 6.2 million gap going to become? 7 million? 8 million?

And if the Playstation 3 drops in March - how much could it drop - $50? $100? If $100, the Playstation 3 could take the lead, but by how much?

There are indeed a lot of variables. And very few could argue that the Playstation 3 would have the gas to overcome as much as a 8 million unit gap when the Playstation 3 may even overtake the X360.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Around the Network
MikeB on 28 November 2008
Turin Turambar said:

You know what's really funny MikeB...I just went to Gamestop today (I'm Italian) and the price of the Xbox360 Arcade was 179.80 euros...I thought that 179.80 was closer to 180 than to 149...funny...really funny

 

I think you may need to look harder:

"Per gli appassionati di videogames poi abbiamo deciso di tenere per ultima la vera chicca della promozione: la famosa Xbox 360 Arcade di casa Microsoft, console tra le più interessanti in circolazione, disponibile sottocosto da Saturn al prezzo esclusivo di 149 euro (la versione a volantino è la Xbox 360 Core Arcade HDMI - Sega Bundle con 5 giochi Arcade e gioco Sega Superstars Tennis). Microsoft sta cercando di combattere il grande successo commerciale della Nintendo WII attraverso una politica di prezzo piuttosto aggressiva, e vedere l’Xbox 360 Arcade già a 30 euro in meno rispetto ai 179 euro del nuovo prezzo ufficiale, ci fa pensare che le vendite di questa piattaforma saranno ancora notevoli (se poi pensiamo che presto arriverà anche in Italia dal 19 novembre l’Xbox Live Video Marketplace, da cui si potranno scaricare Film e Serie TV anche in alta definizione, la console Microsoft a questo prezzo - meno di 150 euro - diventa ancora più interessante). "

Currently from September till next year the 360 only costs, here in the Netherlands and various other European countries:

17/10/2008

-X360 VALUE PACK ELITE 120 Go ( Lego Indiana Jones/KungFu Panda) - 249 Euro
-X360 VALUE PACK PRO 60 Go (Lego Indiana Jones/KungFu Panda) - 199 Euro
-X360 VALUE PACK ARCADE (Sega Superstar Tennis + XBLA games) - 149 Euro



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

KBG29 on 28 November 2008

I think that the strength of the 360's sales at this point in time show a very interesting fact. There is huge demand for HD gaming console/media centers as long as the price is right. Microsoft has a huge advantag over Sony, and they may have very well put a stop to any chance that the PS3 will ever see second place.I feel that Sony is not going to worry to much about this generation anymore. Sony should just do the smart thing, and sell what they can at a price that makes them money. They can continue to release awsome exclusives, and they will always get the third party support. Over time the price of compnents will fall, and the ability to safly drop the price will occur.

Sony did a lot of things this generation to set a foundatition for the furture of the company. They spent big on a new style of processor that will be ahead of the rest for years to come, and they can keep there advantage by refining the design which is much cheaper than developing a whole new achitecture every generation. Sony established Blu-ray as the next generation movie, and game delevery method. IMO the PS3 is a very important buliding block to a very successful future for SOny, and for the rest of this generation they need to focus on getting back the R&D. Next generation Sony can lauch a very high powered low cost system, making moey, and outselling the competition from day one.

What this situation shows me the most is the media hub is the future. Even if Sony waits tell next september and drops the price to $299 they are going to see an explosion of sales. Next holiday will mo longer be a walk in the park for Nintendo. Microsoft has changed the veiw on these consoles, and people are seeing just how awsome they are, and that is going to build a lot of momentum for both HD consoles.



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010 

KBG29 on PSN&XBL

Bitmap Frogs on 28 November 2008

So according to MikeB's warped logic, the ps3 is a terrible failure. Because although it's free, people still prefer to pay 149€ for a 360. Thank you MikeB for illuminating our minds and revealing to us how the consumers dislike the playstation 3 so much they don't even want it for free.

See what I did there? I took a seasonal offer, available only on selected markets and used it as if it was the entry price point everywhere. Nevermind the fact that there's a tiered structure to the 360's SKU's and many sales aren't coming from the cheapest bundle. But hey, who cares about logic? It's all about damage control. Cherrypicking is so fun, yippeee!

edit: to add that the X360 was already outselling the ps3 in Europe months ago before those seasonal discounts came into effect, a fact MikeB conveniently forgot. It's also part of the whole cherrypicking shenanigans.





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

astrosmash on 28 November 2008
Tharthesos said:
You know what I think? Sony doesn't have to make a comeback for second place. Instead they should just do what Nintendo did with the GC: sell console for a profit!
Cutting the price and losing money in this generation is not worth it!
Sony made a choice to make a console that would best the other spec-wise, but that comes obviously with a high price tag on it and ther is not much you can do with that. The Cell chip, with its billion cost for development, and the Blu-Ray with its high manufacture cost are those two choices that cut the legs of the PS3.

This.

Sony is in no position to gamble right now, and that's what any play for second place involves - a gamble. Sony's best bet is to look for the highest possible profit at the lowest possible risk so they have the capital to come out swinging next gen.

 



SOLIDSNAKE08 on 28 November 2008

let me tell you know, anything can happen! if someone said to me the wii would beat the ps3 4 years ago i would have laughed my dick off at them but look what happened! the wii is the casual gamers wet dream! this generation aint over for shit yet! not even close! and we all can agree that ps3 has the most room for growth especially looking at the price tag.