The PS3 might not be able to overtake the 360

[kn]

Smashchu2 said:

kn said:

Smashchu2 said:

Before I begin, I want to say PLEASE don't make this a console ware thing. I'm just trying to look at sales.

From some calculations I did, I don't think the PS3 can possibly beat out the 360 at the end of this generation. Here is how I got there. The gap is 6.24million units. The PS3 typically sold ~50k a week over the 360 (when it beat the 360 weekly). If you use this number, it will take ~125 weeks to meet the gap (about 124.5). So, if the trend was to change now it will meet 360 sales in March 2011 or so.

The problem though is two fold

1. The 360 is starting to beat the PS3 weekly. Normally it was the other way around. But recently, the 360 has been beating the PS3 again (much like in 2007). The problem us a matter of time. Every week the 360 beats the PS3 is lost ground. It not only means that the gap will widen, but it will take much longer to fill this lose. Sony is pressed for time if it wishes to take 2nd place.
2. The generation will end arounf 2011. The generations have been getting shorter and shorter, and, with neither of these consoles straying from the old business model, it's likely to be this way too. Last generation lasted from 2000-2006. This is the long range (from the PS2 launch to the Wii launch). Most consoles live for ~5 years with the mark being met in 2011. Some may try to say the 10 year life cycle, but with Microsoft as a power competator and the system's weak reception, they can not let Microsoft beat them to the punch. They will have to make a system if Microsoft is.

So, that's what I'm looking at. The chances looked good for the system, but it may be too far gone since the PS3 isn't winning on a weekly basis.

Lol, I made the exact same post many months ago and got hammered by the local village idiots. Check it out:

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=24476

 

I said something like Holidays 2010 if the PS3 was going to catch it at all.... And that major price moves would skew things. Nice. Now we are here one year later and that pushes the "win" by the PS3 out another year, if it happens at all.

 

Interesting. Although I wouldn't say you were bashed (I've seen worse). It is interesting to note a lot of the predictions made by the replies were wrong. Given, that was before we realized that software isn't pushing the HD Bros.

 

 

Just curious if you read the whole thread... It's a bit long, lol.  I guess it wasn't bashing from a whole bunch of people, but a small handful of the regular knuckleheads.  It is funny, though, the awesome predictions from some of the "regulars"...