"Also worth noting is that THQ gave projected hardware sales for this year in North America. The company believes Microsoft will sell 4.5 million to 5 million units of the Xbox 360, Nintendo will sell 6 million to 6.5 million Wiis, and Sony will sell 3 million to 3.5 million PlayStation 3s. THQ thinks the PS2 could sell roughly the same amount as the PS3, despite the console's age."
http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=16994 (For more on THQ, read the article)
For reference, by USA NPD, here are 2007 sales to date from Gamedaily:
| 5 weeks | 4 weeks | 5 weeks | 4 weeks | 4 weeks | 5 weeks | |
| Console | January | February | March | April | May | June |
| Wii | 436,000 | 335,000 | 259,000 | 360,000 | 338,000 | 382,000 |
| Xbox 360 | 294,000 | 228,000 | 199,000 | 174,000 | 155,000 | 198,000 |
| PS3 | 244,000 | 127,000 | 130,000 | 82,000 | 82,000 | 99,000 |
I dug up Pachter's 2007 USA projections for comparison:
| Pachter | Wii | DS | GBA | PS3 | PS2 | PSP | Xbox 360 |
| 2007 | 7,000,000 | 6,000,000 | 1,800,000 | 4,500,000 | 3,500,000 | 3,400,000 | 4,500,000 |
Lastly, here are my estimates for USA sales (assuming the $499 PS3 is phased out, and that the rumoured slight 360 pricedrops are correct):
| 4 weeks | 4 weeks | 5 weeks | 4 weeks | 4 weeks | 5 weeks | |
| Console | July | August | September | October | November | December |
| Wii | 340,000 | 460,000 | 430,000 | 408,000 | 975,000 | 2,000,000 |
| Xbox 360 | 150,000 | 300,000 | 600,000 | 500,000 | 600,000 | 1,400,000 |
| PS3 | 125,000 | 95,000 | 140,000 | 360,000 | 380,000 | 870,000 |
My estimates are based on sales in the comparable period of last generation. Wii sales are very similar to PS2 sales in months 1-6 of 2001. In both cases, sales by NPD were roughly 2 million. PS2 sales jumped to almost 900,000 in November on holiday sales and the lineup of GTA III, FFX, DMC, and others. Wii is outselling PS2 through the first 6 months in it's first full USA year ~ 2.1 million to 1.9 million - so I expect sales to be similar on the strength of software like Mario Galaxy (Nov), Metroid Prime 3 (August), Guitar Hero III (Oct), and a host of others. Typically sales in December are 2x that of sales in November - PS2 in 2001 jumped from a ~900k November to a 1900k December. With Wii still the cheapest console and Nintendo expected
Xbox 360 sales, by my estimation, are 15-20% higher than Xbox, despite being more expensive. As such, it is hard to predict how much work the rumoured $20-$50 pricedrops would do in boosting sales, when GTA, GHIII, Rockband, Madden, CoD, Halo, DMC and a host of others are coming this year as well. Sales in Nov & Dec last year were 576k and 1100k, so the doubling rule works again. However, GTA and Halo 3 have such followings that it is possible people who were on the fence about buying a 360 will buy the console immediately - preventing a 2 million+ December, by simply spreading hardware sales of over 500,000 across September (Halo), October (GTA), November (holidays), and December (holidays - but some demand already met). All in all, I expect a holiday season in the USA 20% stronger than last year (2.0 million in Nov-Dec vs. 1.67 million), with a much stronger build up if the small pricedrop comes in August and Halo & GTA keep their dates.
PS3 sales are going to jump this month from the pricedrop of the 60 gig SKU. However, with the phasing out of the old SKU, and reintroduction of a $600 SKU in August, I expect the sales spike to be limited until GTA comes out. That means July should see a nice boost, August will be higher on (comparing to June on a weekly basis) the strength of Madden, Lair and others. While I think Madden and Lair can have Motorstorm like openings, I don't think many will buy a PS3 to play those games - they preach to the converted. September will be more of the same - Heavenly Sword will sell well, but I don't think it will sell alot of PS3s, and by this time the allocation of the $500 PS3 should be spotty in retail - at best. NPD September I think will see a PS3 boost at the end however - as Ratchet & Clank will be counted in the September period. Alot of that momentum will carry over into October - leading upto the release of GTA - which I think will move alot of PS3s. However, PS3 at $600 is still far too expensive for an ordinary purchase, so I think many will wait until November and December to buy one. Still - sales should be 2x-3x higher than 'normal'. As the holidays approach, sales in November should remain high from seasonal boosts as well as new software like Rockband and GHIII offsetting the slow GTA decline. Once December comes, and people can fully analyze the software of the three consoles, I expect PS3 to boost significantly - to 10x the levels it experienced in April & May (82k). I base this on GC sales - sales never jumped more than 10x the weakest in any year. Since PS3 sales are limited by price, I think this is a fair multiplier for PS3. Still - overall - compared to last year PS3 sales in holiday 2007 (November-December) should be 2x as strong as PS3 sales in 2006 .
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
