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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Next gen war: Nintendo could go two in a row. The 2 gen rule

Now Nintendo smashed the 'kiddy' stigma associated with the Gameboy and GameCube with the release and marketing of the Wii. Something that fans never thought would happen and hoped would be lost forever with the Wii and DS. Nintendo also crushed some misconceptions that people outside of gaming had about the past time. Slowly but surely, people are finally seeing what all the fuss is about and that playing video games doesn't have to be nerdy or anti social..

With the NDS, Nintendo showed the world that video games can be beneficial (Brain Training) or helpful (Cooking guide) or just some silly fun (Nintendogs).. With Wii, Nintendo showed the world that video games can be social (Wii Sports) beneficial (Wii Fit) or again just simple, quick fun (WarioWare, Wii Play, making Mii's etc).. They also showed that the console can be useful in other ways (News, weather, internet)

In doing all this they've created the two fastest selling video game syatems ever and also created some new stigmas that have plagued the Wii more than the DS.. The most obvious is the lack of horse power and lack of High Definition capabilities. Nintendo stated before the launch of the Wii that the HD capable TV penetration was not high enough and they were right. They also said that their next home console will support High Definition output. Stigma number two is the lack of third party support which has been attributed to a number of things...

The first thing being lack of power and if the last point is anything to go by, it should be less of a problem next generation. The second thing is that the audience doesn't buy the software and just gets the console out as if it were an expensive board game. Now whether that is true or not is for another topic.. Or many other topics which are inevitable so we are nt going to bother with them except to say that Nintendo cannot make the same mistakes that they did in the 90's and think that third parties don't matter.

 

A Big Start - we'll call it the N6

So we know that Nintendo are going after the blue ocean, that is the 'casuals' that never existed before. They also were targetting lapsed gamers (gamers that had not bought a console for a number of years). They also called the Wii an 'AND' console saying that they believed every owner of a PS3 or 360 should own a Wii too as they are very different to each other. I think it's fair to say that they succeeded in all 3 of those goals..

Now that Wii is a very well known brand name, Nintendo would do well to keep it intact for their next console but even without the Wii name, NINTENDO is cemented in the heads of the blue ocean audience and if Nintendo can compel them again with another 'Wii Sports' they'll be straight back on the bandwagon.

It's absolutely critical that Nintendo launches the N6 with another pack in title that hits the same note with people as Wii Sports did and also that a top IP such as a new mario or Zelda launches along side so that sales are at Wii-like levels for its first holiday which will hype it as a true Wii successor in the mainstream's minds. This is what will give Nintendo a massive launch out of the blocks and a hype train matching what the Wii is getting going into this holiday season.

They need to break out of the 'AND' or 'OR' console philosophy and become 'THE' console to own.

 

Realising Potential

It's all about social networks these days.. Myspace, Facebook, Home.. Well Nintendo have recently said that they're vision of a social network will be revealed soon (my bet is Wii World or Mii World @ E3 this year with a new Mii channel and Mii options).. Well Nintendo.. Launch a full scale service like this, casual friendly of course, with the N6 and the casuals will be hooked.. The potential in Mii avatars are there and the potential is being realised by microsoft of all people.. So get your asses into gear!

WiiConnect24.. Sigh.. We were promised a new experience every day.. What we got were monthly updates that sneakily killed any homebrew fun on our system.. Nintendo there really is some major potential there and the fact that it isn't being used is.. well.. sad.. Spice things up with N6? Nintendo can truly become a household hub.. AND CHANNELS! With N6, Nintendo could open up the channels to 3rd parties almost like the apple app store and the channels could be filled with meaningful stuff!

Obviously that means that the N6 needs lots of something tht Wii does not have.. That's right! Memory! Nintendo will deliver this time and they'll be no fridge cleaning in the next Nintendo system..

The motion controls are all waggle this, waggle that.. Wii MotionPlus will change that but just imagine what Nintendo could do with the N6 remote.. Perfect 1:1 motion, rechargable, stronger rumble feature, much higher quality speaker, wireless nunchuk, nunchuk with 1:1 motion, nunchuk with rumble..

How about a bigger innovation? Small screen on the controller? Turn the console on to check up on things without turning on the TV? Yeah stupid but Nintendo can come up with a new wacky innovation or gimmick ..

 

The Two Generation Rule

So Nintendo can capture the casuals once again if they believe that the N6 is worth the upgrade.. Nintendo just has to pounce at the right time, most likely when HD penetration is very high and Wii sales are slow.. They do have history on their side in that one company always rules for two generations before they are disrupted and fall from the top place.. Microsoft and Sony will not make the same mistake they did this generation with high powered and high priced consoles and will become closer to the Wii in terms of public image.. This will hurt Nintendo as they need to have a differentiating factor but it may also hurt the other companies if thier own userbase defects to another platform or if they simply cannot touch the N6 in sales and are stuck as an in between console with an identity problem..

 

Now that that is done, somebody do Sony :P 

 



 

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It's certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on it until we see something from Nintendo. Their R&D costs have to be going to something utterly terrifying...



Khuutra said:
It's certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet on it until we see something from Nintendo. Their R&D costs have to be going to something utterly terrifying...

How much is ducktapping 6 Gamecubes together?? jk..

OT: We will see... I don't really care about the machine.. I just want to see what they can do with their games in the next generation..



 

Face the future.. Gamecenter ID: nikkom_nl (oh no he didn't!!) 

The two generation rule is a bit of a myth.

Nintendo has won with the following:

Game & Watch to Game Boy to Game Boy Advance to DS

Thats 4 in a row, 40m to 118m to 83m to 84.55m (and counting)

 

Its more like...two generations is the most you can go without innovating to draw in a new audience.

So NES-SNES were the same audience.

PS1-PS2 were the same audience.

Neither was particularly different in terms of innovation, the latter just had better and more diverse versions of earlier games.

 

DS would have failed as a souped up GBA because Sony would have won over the GBA demographic in the way it had won most of the SNES/Genesis demographic with PS1. DS still probably lost about 20m or 30m gamers to PSP but it drew in enough new ones (as PSP has done too) that its not exactly hurting Nintendo's bottom line.

 

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

seems the sensible thing to do. Thing is nintendo doesnt have to wait for the next gen to do these things. better online (wii wordl/voice chat) better controllers (motion plus/wireless nunchucks/rechargeable) better games (increasing support) can all be done this gen. for me i believe nintendo need to destroy the crap perception in gamers eyes before they launch a new system. I reckon at least 3 years of solid third party support is needed to redeem the wii and set up its successor as a viablke gaming platform



 nintendo fanboy, but the good kind

proud soldier of nintopia

 

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Yes you could argue it that way but I'd say in the console space, the two generation rule still stands..

I agree however that it is that innovation or disruption that breaks up each 10 year period and that the reason the leader falls is because thay stick to the strategy that they employed over the previous decade while being disrupted by the competition..



 

@ woopah: I really don't see Nintendo doing a lot to in regards to improving the hardware (wireless nunchuks etc) this generation..

Yes they'll continue releasing games at the rate they have been, hopefully with more well timed releases in dry spells etc..

They really don't have to improve much.. Look at the sales! What incentive do they have?

It's up to third parties for their support really.. 2009 will be the make or break year, whatever Wii gets next year will set the tone for the rest of the generation..



 

---PREDICTIONS---

END OF GENERATION SALES (2013) (made on 8/8/08)

Wii - 150 million
Playstation 3 - 75 million
XBOX 360 - 55 million

the xbox wont get that high neither will the wii



Gearbox said:
---PREDICTIONS---

END OF GENERATION SALES (2013) (made on 8/8/08)

Wii - 150 million
Playstation 3 - 75 million
XBOX 360 - 55 million

the xbox wont get that high neither will the wii

 

 

uhh.. What does that have to do with this thread?

And would you like to back up your wonderful incite into the future or just leave it as a dumb comment?



 

Gearbox said:
---PREDICTIONS---

END OF GENERATION SALES (2013) (made on 8/8/08)

Wii - 150 million
Playstation 3 - 75 million
XBOX 360 - 55 million

the xbox wont get that high neither will the wii

This is one of the most offtopic statements I've ever seen.



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