2011 would be following the trend that all the other generations have set.

2010 is a possibility, but remote
early 2012 is also possible
2013 is laughable

I voted 2012. Seems the most logic. In 2010 we'll start hearing the first rumors. At mid 2011 we'll see the specs. 2012 release

It will be out in time for Gears of War 3.

I have an inkling that this generation will last longer than previous generations. I voted 2012.

I voted for 2011, it seems like a good year for MS to launch the next xbox. Halo4 exclusive and a next gen CoD4 made by IW will no doubt sell 10mil systems the first 6months.

2012 will see a new Xbox. Will Sony and Nintendo follow? At some point they have to, but it might not be before 2013. I do think Sony will be alot less arrogant next gen, so they might launch side by side with the new Xbox.

My guess, is that some of the people who voted 2009 consider handhelds as consoles, and thought a new DS/PsP will be released in 09.

We will see the next generation when the console company in question believes they have something compelling to offer over the Xbox, PS and Wii of this generation. A lot of it really depends on what technologies and interfaces they choose to use. Its not really about an arbirtrary number.

For exampe: An Xbox based on an Intel X86 with Larrabee and Sandybridges (A shrink and generational change over the Core I7) would have to release in 2012 as thats the earliest time for mainstream production, though they might squeeze a 2011 release out though thats unlikely.

An Xbox with a similar architecture could be released now.

An Xbox using say ultrasonic motion and 3d positioning controls would have to wait for that technology and the software using it to become viable.

next Xbox: 2011
next PS: 1st half 2012
next Wii: 2nd half 2012

ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.

we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime next year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation. sony will be the last to post profits form its game division, and depending on how many units they move form now until the cut (march earliest), software could even offset a small loss per console basis.

other things that work against the launch are the "recession" that we are told we are in. the much more real slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen (the dollar has held steady but was already weak against it).

on top of that there  currently on going  major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)

honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous