Keep bringing strong softwares and it will.

leo-j said: @lightbleeder If only you saw what they gave in the news today, a retire ment home full of thousands of elders, playing the wii.

These elders you speak of... were they, by any chance, in possession of certain scrolls?

If they keep selling out for the next 2 years then they should reach ~100 million sales by the end of 2010.
The way I calculated was 2.4 X 24months= 57.6 + approx 42 million end of 2008= 99.6 million.

That assumes a constant production of 2.4 million a month and the wii completely selling out their shipments.

Will be interesting to say the least as I do still think that the competition will increase from the other consoles.

That's a bit far-fetched.

100 million at the end of 2010, in other words, 100 million in 4 years means that it would have to outdo the DS, and I don't see that happening.

Even if the Wii were to reach 45 million by the end of this year(and even that's taking it to the highest degree of generosity that's possible), it would have to sell 55 million in two years time, or 27.5 million/year, and it's doubtful that Nintendo could even make that many Wiis.

I'd say somewhere around 80 million is more likely.

well ninendo may ship 100mln wiis by the end of 2010 for sure, but software sales will be much higher after all nintendo predicted more than 180mln games sold during this fiscal year(which will make more than 365mln software sold since wii launch). i'm guessing that in 2010 wii will hit 900mln software mark(especially since all nintendo home consoles have really high attach rates)

Nintendo is producing 28.8M Wiis a year. I don't see why your prediction wouldn't be valid, although I believe it is a tad too high, that's what makes predictions golden, right?

leo-j said: If demand is met it wont. Now here is the thing, I have a feeling these holidays will make or break the wii.. I honestly expect 1 million units WW this week, its still in stock at every retailer, and I wouldnt doubt its selling like crazy.

I hope you can realise you have that wrong with this explanation.

Current production rate is enough to produce 100 million + by the end of 2010.... currently demand is still (albeit slightly) below that level.

So if they meet the current demand they will have produced more than what they are currently set to do.... if demand is not met then they will sell less, but still over 100 million.

That's very well possible. Nintendo's estimate is 52 million end March 2009. Currently they're shipping 28 million Wii's per year, so should be 80 million end March 2010. That makes 100 million very well possible, seeing that they can still cut the price and have different SKU's.

PS2 sold 120 million or so. Besides the US alone is not 50% of the market.

I'll be a bit conservative and say 90 mill., even that's the most optimistic scenario.