Let me state that I think Gran Turismo 5 will be the top selling game lifetime on the PS3, as it's Sony's biggest exclusive franchise. That said, I think it's a bit of a longshot to reach 10m in sales; I'd peg a number around 8m as more reasonable, with 10m at the upper edge of potential sales. There are three major reasons why I would put the sales significantly lower than Gran Turismo 3:
- GT5 will release vastly later in the PS3's lifecycle. GT3 was one of the earliest PS2 titles, and benefited a lot from having little competition. It was one of those games that people bought to showcase their shiny new system; look at Motorstorm 1 sales for a good example. Coming out early also gave this game a very, very long time to sell - something that GT5 won't have going for it.
- GT3 benefited from extensive bundling with the PS2 in North America. While I fully expect there will be a lot of GT5 bundles, the lower hardware sales of PS3 compared to PS2 won't make up the difference here.
- GT3's early release meant it hit "Greatest Hits" status and bargin bin cheap price midway through the PS2's lifecycle, helping it squeeze out several million more sales. Sony won't be able to do the same thing with GT5, as it won't be releasing until holiday 2009 (in the most optimistic scenario) and the astronomical development costs won't be able to justified a reduced price for a very long time. This will depress sales long term, although it won't do anything to stop huge week 1 numbers.
All told, I expect GT5 to sell more in line with GT4, which also came out relatively late in its console's lifecycle, thereby having less time to rack up sales. Keep in mind too just how insanely difficult it is to reach 10m in sales; the 360 sells monstrous quantities of software, and it still doesn't have a single game near 10m. GT5 will sell fabulously well, just not as well as its incredible predecessor.
