Regarding GT5, I wrote this in another thread.

Compared to GT3, this is the case.

 

GT3 released in Americas/Others with 13M Ps3s WW.

GT5 should release with at least double of that.

 

GT3 did probably not sell at all after February 05, as then GT4 was released in Americas/Others. At that time the sales of Ps2 were at 80M. Realistically, GT3 didn't sell over 10K weekly for more than 2 years. That means that it sold at least 12M of its sales with an userbase of 13-50M.

GT5 will probably also sell 10K + for max 2 years only. If we assume that Ps3 makes 10M a year after GT5 is released, it will sell pretty much all its sales with an userbase of 30-50M, and that is looking pessimistic at it.

 

So I'd say that GT5 has a better situation to sell much than GT3 did.

I would gladly take a permaban if GT5 sells less than 10 million lifetime.

It will definitely outsell Halo 3.

Honestly?

srsly.

 Like I said in another thread :

Ok let's use logic here...

GT4 did 10 millions on a userbase of 125 millions PS2. Why a GT5 on a 20-30 millions userbase would do better?

GT3 did about 14 millions on a smaller userbase right but also on the most popular console of its time. So the userbase increased very quickly as GT3 sales.

Now PS3 is a far different story. It's the less popular console of its time. Plus GT5 have solid competition this gen in the name of Motorstorm. Also no game on PS3 is close to 10 millions even GTAIV which is considered by many as 'the game of the gen'.

conclusion : GT5 will do around 4 millions LTD Worldwide.

atma, stop while you're behind.

Install bases won't matter as much as you think. It will slow the legs of titles like it has shown in both GTAs. But GT5 selling any less than 6 million is impossible.

 LOL we'll see.

Okay, did some digging up for some GT3 numbers. Going by this link, it says on page 33 (or 31 on the page) cumulative sales of the game were over 8mil. I'm not sure if it's the end of the fiscal year they're talking about, so to be safe I'll assume it's the end of April (the date of the document). If we take out Japan, we can say at least 6mil copies of the game were shipped outside Japan at this time. Going by VGC:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 05th Feb 2000 to 27th Apr 2002:

The userbase outside of Japan was about 17.5mil with over 6mil copies of the game shipped. I would guess there were about 21mil PS2's shipped at the time. That's all I can find for early numbers. Here it shows GT3 shipped over 11mil worldwide a year later, or over 9mil out of Japan. VGC has the PS2 userbase out of Japan at 35mil then (end of April 03).

While these numbers are only shipped, it should give you an idea how high the attach rate for GT can get. It has managed higher than a 30% attach rate in Japan (at 1.7mil copies), and should have no problems doing 20% outside of Japan. If the game meets expectations and is pushed hard by Sony, 10mil is definitely within reach.

Can anyone give me a list of Playstation 3 games that have outsold their previous iterations, on games with over 2m+ sales on the PS3?

Last I checked, MGS4 bombed relatively to MGS2/3.

MGS4 is outperforming MGS3 in all regions but Japan. GT5:P outsold GT4:P.

Those are the only 2m+ titles, pretty much... GTAIV's drop is understandable.