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Forums - Sales Discussion - Besides Halo 3 and possibly GT5, any other 10 million sellers for PS360?

FilaBrasileiro on 16 November 2008
atma998 said:
c0rd said:

I think it'd be more accurate to say GT5 will do 4mil minimum... in the Others region.

We don't have complete data on the old GT's, so it's hard to tell, but as I've said many times before: GT3 sold 1.7mil in Japan, with only 5.6mil consoles out. That's a 30% attach rate.

People are underestimating the GT franchise. I personally don't care that much for the game and thought 10mil was nonsense too, until I took a closer look at the old numbers.

OT: No, no other games are reaching 10mil. I would include multiplats to at least make it interesting.

 

WHAT? are you serious? LOL that's an attach rate of 50% don't you know? Even if you double the Others userbase to 16 millions which could happen sometime in 2011 it must have an attach rate of 25% to make it. GT4 did 8% on PS2. Really....you must be joking...

I think you're joking, let's say GT5 releases in Fall '09 (Please God), the "Others" user base will be what then? 10 million? 12? Ok, so then he's saying it'll sell a minimum of 4 million LTD in others, so at 12 million, it'd be a 30% attach rate, which is normal for a big release like GT5.

 



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atma998 on 16 November 2008
FilaBrasileiro said:
atma998 said:
c0rd said:

I think it'd be more accurate to say GT5 will do 4mil minimum... in the Others region.

We don't have complete data on the old GT's, so it's hard to tell, but as I've said many times before: GT3 sold 1.7mil in Japan, with only 5.6mil consoles out. That's a 30% attach rate.

People are underestimating the GT franchise. I personally don't care that much for the game and thought 10mil was nonsense too, until I took a closer look at the old numbers.

OT: No, no other games are reaching 10mil. I would include multiplats to at least make it interesting.

 

WHAT? are you serious? LOL that's an attach rate of 50% don't you know? Even if you double the Others userbase to 16 millions which could happen sometime in 2011 it must have an attach rate of 25% to make it. GT4 did 8% on PS2. Really....you must be joking...

I think you're joking, let's say GT5 releases in Fall '09 (Please God), the "Others" user base will be what then? 10 million? 12? Ok, so then he's saying it'll sell a minimum of 4 million LTD in others, so at 12 million, it'd be a 30% attach rate, which is normal for a big release like GT5.

 

 

 First it's 33.3% attach rate on a userbase of 12 M, second do you know a game with such an attach rate? And finally like I said before GT4 did 8%. Now try to be more informed next time you post.



c0rd on 16 November 2008

I'm talking about lifetime sales here, obviously. Halo 3 is at 6mil in America right now. The week it came out, there were under 7.5mil 360's sold there. If someone predicted 6mil back then, I'm hoping nobody was silly enough to think, "LOL 80% ATTACH RATE?"

If it helps you get my point at all, I expect PS3 to sell at least 20mil in the others region. It hasn't even seen 2 holiday seasons there yet (it came out March 07), and it's at 8mil right now. By 2011, the userbase should be much higher than 16mil. It sold around 4.5mil in its first year, and should be at or very close to 11mil at the end of its second year. Even if it somehow declines during its third year, it will at least pull off first year sales, which puts it at around 16mil. From there, it has 9 more months of sales (including the holidays) till 2011.

I think I'm being conservative, here. Unless the economy really turns disastrous, or something unexpected happens with Sony, 20mil is assured in Others.



atma998 on 16 November 2008
c0rd said:

I'm talking about lifetime sales here, obviously. Halo 3 is at 6mil in America right now. The week it came out, there were under 7.5mil 360's sold there. If someone predicted 6mil back then, I'm hoping nobody was silly enough to think, "LOL 80% ATTACH RATE?"

If it helps you get my point at all, I expect PS3 to sell at least 20mil in the others region. It hasn't even seen 2 holiday seasons there yet (it came out March 07), and it's at 8mil right now. By 2011, the userbase should be much higher than 16mil. It sold around 4.5mil in its first year, and should be at or very close to 11mil at the end of its second year. Even if it somehow declines during its third year, it will at least pull off first year sales, which puts it at around 16mil. From there, it has 9 more months of sales (including the holidays) till 2011.

I think I'm being conservative, here. Unless the economy really turns disastrous, or something unexpected happens with Sony, 20mil is assured in Others.

 

 And you think that a game released in 2009 will still sell well in 2011? BTW why would GT5 sell better than GT4 on a userbase 4-5 times smaller? It makes no sense at all. Your predictions are'nt conservatives at all dude, sorry.



c0rd on 16 November 2008
atma998 said:

 First it's 33.3% attach rate on a userbase of 12 M, second do you know a game with such an attach rate? And finally like I said before GT4 did 8%. Now try to be more informed next time you post.

You should know that attach rate doesn't really scale with the userbase. For example, compare GTA4's current attach rate with San Andreas. There are plenty more to compare, most HD games are seeing higher attach rates due to a relatively smaller userbase.

As for an attach rate higher than 33% - yes, there is one far higher. Look at the other game that will hit 10mil - Halo 3. It has a 46% attach rate in America, and it was definitely higher at one point (can't be bothered to check its max).

edit: Care to show your reasoning why PS3 sales will fall off the map? GT5 will sell better than GT4, because it's the first (and only) GT on the current gen system. As for selling higher on a smaller userbase making "no sense," then explain, why has Halo 3 outsold Halo 2 already? (it hasn't quite yet, sorry). Still, you're obviously not getting my points, so I'm done explaining.



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FilaBrasileiro on 16 November 2008
atma998 said:
FilaBrasileiro said:
atma998 said:
c0rd said:

I think it'd be more accurate to say GT5 will do 4mil minimum... in the Others region.

We don't have complete data on the old GT's, so it's hard to tell, but as I've said many times before: GT3 sold 1.7mil in Japan, with only 5.6mil consoles out. That's a 30% attach rate.

People are underestimating the GT franchise. I personally don't care that much for the game and thought 10mil was nonsense too, until I took a closer look at the old numbers.

OT: No, no other games are reaching 10mil. I would include multiplats to at least make it interesting.

 

WHAT? are you serious? LOL that's an attach rate of 50% don't you know? Even if you double the Others userbase to 16 millions which could happen sometime in 2011 it must have an attach rate of 25% to make it. GT4 did 8% on PS2. Really....you must be joking...

I think you're joking, let's say GT5 releases in Fall '09 (Please God), the "Others" user base will be what then? 10 million? 12? Ok, so then he's saying it'll sell a minimum of 4 million LTD in others, so at 12 million, it'd be a 30% attach rate, which is normal for a big release like GT5.

 

 

First it's 33.3% attach rate on a userbase of 12 M, second do you know a game with such an attach rate? And finally like I said before GT4 did 8%. Now try to be more informed next time you post.

 

As mentioned, Halo 3 with a 37.3 attach rate, GTAIV is MP and is just a tad below 30% if I'm not mistaken. Now try to be more informed next time you post.



Slimebeast on 16 November 2008

I fink The Elder Scrolls V has a good chance.



ThePerilous on 16 November 2008

It will be enthralling to see how well Gran Turismo 5 will do.



atma998 on 16 November 2008
FilaBrasileiro said:
atma998 said:
FilaBrasileiro said:
atma998 said:
c0rd said:

I think it'd be more accurate to say GT5 will do 4mil minimum... in the Others region.

We don't have complete data on the old GT's, so it's hard to tell, but as I've said many times before: GT3 sold 1.7mil in Japan, with only 5.6mil consoles out. That's a 30% attach rate.

People are underestimating the GT franchise. I personally don't care that much for the game and thought 10mil was nonsense too, until I took a closer look at the old numbers.

OT: No, no other games are reaching 10mil. I would include multiplats to at least make it interesting.

 

WHAT? are you serious? LOL that's an attach rate of 50% don't you know? Even if you double the Others userbase to 16 millions which could happen sometime in 2011 it must have an attach rate of 25% to make it. GT4 did 8% on PS2. Really....you must be joking...

I think you're joking, let's say GT5 releases in Fall '09 (Please God), the "Others" user base will be what then? 10 million? 12? Ok, so then he's saying it'll sell a minimum of 4 million LTD in others, so at 12 million, it'd be a 30% attach rate, which is normal for a big release like GT5.

 

 

First it's 33.3% attach rate on a userbase of 12 M, second do you know a game with such an attach rate? And finally like I said before GT4 did 8%. Now try to be more informed next time you post.

 

As mentioned, Halo 3 with a 37.3 attach rate, GTAIV is MP and is just a tad below 30% if I'm not mistaken. Now try to be more informed next time you post.

 

 Ok so you expect GT5 to have one of the best attach rate of this gen? Just to let you know Halo 3 is a major exeption and GTAIV which is suppose to be ''the game of the gen'' is at 27,4% for X360 and 29% for PS3 and those attach rates are falling down week after week (Halo 3 too!). You got to compare apples to apples. Anyway...you'll see. Now you can continue to live in a illusion.



FilaBrasileiro on 16 November 2008
atma998 said:

 

Ok so you expect GT5 to have one of the best attach rate of this gen? Just to let you know Halo 3 is a major exeption and GTAIV which is suppose to be ''the game of the gen'' is at 27,4% for X360 and 29% for PS3 and those attach rates are falling down week after week (Halo 3 too!). You got to compare apples to apples. Anyway...you'll see. Now you can continue to live in a illusion.

 

I'll take a permaban bet with you.