(a topic worthy its own thread)

Starting 2009 the battle between Sony and Microsoft will not center around the games. Sony executives had admitted that the age of exclusively is over. The vast majority of the titles are 3rd parties and buying exclusivity is just too expensive for anyone.

Microsoft's 1st party exclusive may still matter. Halo and Gears are huge. Sony still has to show a defining titile that will cause people to stand in lines at midnight. If they could not show it after two years, I am not sure it is ever going to happen. But regardless, the 1st party titles are pretty much insignificant in the grand scheme at this point int he game. The majority of the block busters are 3rd parties and they will all publish to both the 360 and PS3.

So if it is not the games then what is it?

PRICE: A huge factor. If you can get 95% of the blockbuster games on both platforms but one is half priced than the other which will you buy? Strong advantage for the 360.

FRIENDS: Which is the system that your friends are playing on? Here the early leader has the advantage of virtous cycle. The more people are on the platform, the more friends will be there too will will drag in their friends. Friends are not just real-life friends but also network friends. The 360 has both the unit numbers advantage and the LIVE network advantage. Moreover, some of the PS3 install base is using the system primarily as a Blu-Ray player where they don't care about their social network and they don't contribute to the player network of the PSN. Again the 360 has the edge.

It is really hard to see how Sony can overcome these disadvantages.

Other thoughts?

nice read. Usually my eyes shuts down whenever i read long boring posts.

It's ALL about games. The fact that MS assured that the majority of the games were multiplat is what gives the edge to the X360.3

3 titles once exclusive , and that suffice to the PS3 have the advantage, were what made the 5-6 mln advantage go on through 2008: GTAIV, DMC4 and SC4.
If those tiltles were still exclusives, the Ps3 would be at 20 mln and probably x360 wouldn't be at 22mln. There's also a bunch of other titles, but the point is, when you have a gaming rig with the same games and half the price as another, is a almost a certainty that the cheaper will sell most.

But Sony brand is still strong, so if they cut price(unlikelly in the next 5 months), they will gain advantage over x360.

Really? I must be the only one that bought his system for the exclusive games?

it is also about standalone bluray players. If the price is significantly lower, the only remaining ps3 purchasers are gamers. Sony had some great sales thanks to home theatre but with bd players price dipping 150$ below PS3 price and also comes with bd live (eh, finally bluray caught up with hd dvd in features), then ps3 won't have bd advantage.

I think you'll get dinged by Sony fans on two points here:

1) the the system is primarily being used as a blu-ray player, and
2) that 1st party titles are insignificant.

For what it's worth I don't think this "war" has ever been about just the games. Outside of a few notable exceptions (MGS4, LBP, Resistance) the 360 has always had a larger library of games, including critically well received ones. However the PS3 was still (until the price drop) gaining ground on them.

Just to be clear - the games HAD BEEN the deciding factor until now. Without Halo and Gears Microsoft would have had not chance to get into the game. Without being able to break Sony's exclusivity on key 3rd parties, Microsoft would never had been able to stay in the game.

But this is the past. It is done and Microsoft has now all of these blockbusters. Sony has them all as well.

Moving forward, the games are no longer a differentiating factor for any of the system when 95% of the games will show up on both systems. And when there are so many good games for each of the systems, there is no one (or a couple) new exclusive titles that will become the deciding factor.

So looking ahead (and only ahead, not backwards) - it is about price and critical mass of friends network that will be the deciding factor of buying decisions. Again - the 360 is at an a strong advantage.

About the Blu-Ray: It allowed the PS3 a decent start when they were lagging so much behind. It used to be the cheapest BR player on the market and the enthousiasts jumped all over it. But those days are over. The stand alone BR players are at the $170 price range and will drop towards the $120 during next year. The effect of the BR drive on the $400 PS3 is now marginalized.

I guess the old exclusive games won't be sold anymore? So for a person that is trying to decide on which HD console they want to get, the current library won't matter? Will they not be able to play the exclusives that are already out for them?

Boy, that would suck.

All Sony needs is a price cut. Before the 360's price cut the ps3 was out selling it every week and all the threads were about how the 360 is dead. Now all the threads are about the PS3 is dead. Enough is enough... These two consoles are going to be selling for the next several years. Everybody pays way to much attention to short term numbers. If you look at yearly numbers, Sony is doing just fine. They have still out sold the 360 this year by over 1.5 million. That is with out any price cut this year.
In the spring, when Sony finally does have a price cut, its sales will spike just like the 360's sales have spiked. At that point there will be a bunch of threads like this one saying MS is doomed.

I think a price drop is needed then Sony will be back in the game.

Personally I think both consoles are excellent and I hope neither one runs away with it.

Problem is MS it would seem will do whatever they have to do to win this race and they have a pretty big chequebook to do it.