@tabsina: the only reason they probably won't release it on VC-Wiiware, is because they know they could sell it for US$50 (US$100) and tools like me will still buy it.

@Artof: Especially with the DS as popular as it is. It will probably go on a long time like Gameboy did.

Question:Would you buy a new Mario Kart DS if it weren't as racerish, and had more of a focus on battle, add in voice chat, new battle mechanics? That could be a good excuse to come out with a sequel in a generation

There are already 2 :P Paper Mario, not really a RPG mostly platform and Mario Galaxy. But if you say a full 3D adventure game... I HOPE SO!

Didnt the NES launch with SMB since the game existed in the arcades before the NES hit the stores? the snes also launched with SMW, and went on to have yoshis island.

I think since we are geting Mario galaxy quite early in the machines life, and the wii has far more potential to sell for much longer than the N64 or Cube showed it would be a safe bet that we would see another.
In the case of the cube, by the time Sunshine was released (to a luke warm reception) the cracks were already showing, a year later there wasnt much left of the market so taking up development of a new game would have been a waste of resources.
A year after mario galaxy will be a very very different situation, expecially as alot of people are saying that SMG could be one of the biggest selling games of all time.

The thing about mario, or just games in the past were you could take a game update the sprites, make new levels, add a few twists etc and it was a new game, nowadays if a franchise isnt vastly improved the general public doesnt want to know.
There was very little different to the the core of the games throughout SMB1/2/3, SMW and YI, yet when the switch to 3D was made, each one after that has been distincly unique. This fact alone would make multiple mario games on one format less likely. I personally wouldnt mind if they made another Galaxy game which is basically more of the same, but i dont think that would happen.

Slightly OT:

I haven't played Super Paper Mario yet (EU citizen... sigh), but from what I saw and read, I am a little disappointed that Nintendo didn't include real platforming mechanics. Currently I am playing Paper Mario 2, and I am seriously annoyed by Mario's awkward controls: No running, no acceleration, no responsive physics. It just doesn't feel as groovy as, say, NSMB. And SPM, despite being more of a platformer, still seems to be the same as its predecessors, controlwise.

Why don't they bring true Jump'n'Run controls to the Paper Mario series, now that it has gone platformer? I mean, it's all Nintendo, right?

My guess is that they're going to do their best to release another big Mario game for the Wii eventually. Might end up depending on how long the Wii's lifespan is, and whether or not they decide to bump the late games for their next console.

Then again the only console with a lot of bumping done that I can think of was the Gamecube (the least succesful console that wasn't a failure IMO), and the Wii looks like it's going to be the most succesful of all time. Very unlikely to have dead periods like the GC's last few years for a very, very long time.

I was actually thinking about this same thing playing SMB yesterday.

I think WiiWare may be the answer as stated above. To get that service off the ground, you may see a NSMB type game released. It would be a smart idea, cheap for Ninty and sell a ton.

As for NDS, they would be foolish not to release one more Mario game considering the legs that the original has.
Even if they just made more levels based on the same graphics it would be a t least a 3 million seller.

As for the main series, I don't think you'll see a true sequel until Wii2 (or whatever) As someone mentioned above... these games take forever in development.

I would consider a TP like scenario reasonably likely, where it exists on both the Wii and N's next console.

 Actualy I would rather have one 3D Mario and one 2D Mario on the Wii. So give me a NSMB spinnoff to Wii.

Actually, the American release of SMB2 is NOT a true Mario game, because it it a NON-Mario game with Mario sprites inserted into it. Don't get me wrong, I had a blast with it, but the Miyamoto argument is just pathetic. Is Pikmin a Mario game? But what if it was Mario in that space suit? Oh, oh, Olimar = Mario L = Mario and Luigi! Conspiracy! Pikmin REALLY IS a Mario game!! NO.

And although jSMB2 is a "true" Mario game, as I said, it wasn't really an addition to the series as much as it was an addition to the first game. It's literally exactly like the original SMB only harder and with a couple new items and enemies (both of which make the game even harder). [edit: There's a reason why on SM All-Stars it's called "The Lost Levels" (i.e. of the first SMB).]

[edit: let's try this without the condescension:

[P.S. Try multiple paragraphs next time.]

This is true, but in another way, i think if 1 game is TOO popular and sales never actually died down, then they may never see the need to make another, opting to create a new game all together. I doubt that would ever happen in the case of the DS, I have no doubt the machine will run for another 5 years before it is replaced, but depending on just how well a Wii title does and how long the Wii will be in existence, it may not be so straght forward in its case.

Overall i think we will see 2 true mario games on the current machines, the only reason we didnt see the same for the cube and N64 was that they both did pretty badly,but im sure they both had a follow up game planned at some point, only for it to be cancelled. Quite why the GBA never got its own mario game is a bit of a mystery, I guess it lived off pokemon.