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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Miyamoto's Mistake and what it'll cost the Wii

Gamerace said:
Wii Sports and Wii Fit are now old news. Nintendo knows more than anyone you have to keep grasping people imagination to keep interest up. Early results show Wii Music is failing to do that.

I definitely don't agree with this. When they say they need to offer new experiences, I don't think they're talking about yearly intervals. What has been selling the DS? Brain Age, Nintendogs, NSMB and others all came out over 2 years ago, and the DS has had its best year yet. The Wii has Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii, and massive third party support (much more than the DS had, I believe). There will be plenty of extra hype from WSR / MotionPlus early next year, and who knows what they have in store for the future.

A single game's failure cannot stop all this momentum, especially considering Wii Fit and Mario Kart just came out months ago (I'm sure that counts as "new" for the expanded audience, they're still buying the 3 year old Nintendogs). I can understand the alarming need for generating more interest in Japan, but that isn't an area Sony or Microsoft have any chance at anyway.

@triplebph
Take a look at this graph:
http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=Big+Brain+Academy%3A+Wii+Degree+-+Wii&reg2=Others&game2=Big+Brain+Academy%3A+Wii+Degree+-+Wii&reg3=America&game3=Big+Brain+Academy%3A+Wii+Degree+-+Wii&weeks=70&weekly=1

Notice how low the sales are, yet it creeps up to near 3mil? Its massive spikes are during the holiday season, which we haven't yet seen for Wii Music. Also notice where most of its sales comes from: the Others market. In the past, that market has been able to carry games' sales up single handedly. Big Brain Academy took over a year to see a price drop. Bargain bins, eh? The game is still selling, btw.

I'm willing to bet Wii Music will outdo that game.



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noname2200 said:
famousringo said:
pastro243 said:

I don't think that anybody is bashing Rock Band or Guitar Hero for being accessible. Accessiblity of play is a major advantage of those franchises and a big factor in their massive success. It's just ironic that the Wii franchise entry in the music genre is less accessible than these established music franchises.

From what I've played, Wii Music IS actually more accessible than Guitar Hero et. al. I've seen novices on Guitar Hero struggle greatly on Easy mode (I certainly did myself) for hours before the whole thing "clicked." By contrast, none of the instruments in Wii Music are particularly hard to "get"; you'll be strumming along in minutes. So I think with that game, it's Mission Accomplished, as not knowing the mechanics of instruments is no longer an obstacle.

The problem with the game isn't that it's not accessible, it's that it only gives back as much as you put into it. Put simply, while you no longer need to learn how to play an instrument to make things sound good, you do need to have a good idea for what you're aiming for. That guitar solo you just inserted in Twinkle Twinkle? Probably not the best place to put it. And playing the cymbals off-beat in any song WILL sound bad. Still, I think a lot of people will enjoy screwing up the songs, because they're the ones doing the screwing up. It's kind of like karoake, where the performer's having a good time, and the audience is preparing to throw heavy blunt objects.

 

 

What makes Rock Band more accessible than Wii Music isn't so much the interface itself. I think it's arguable whether flicking the wiimote and nunchuk is more intuitive than controllers which are custom-built to look and operate like instruments, especially when you add in all of the modifiers for Wii Music instruments which utilize the thumbstick and A, B, C, Z buttons. You could build a case for either one, really.

Where Rock Band and other rhythm games really get more accessible than Wii Music is the scrolling instruction sheet which tells the player what to do and defines exactly what constitutes success and failure. You can see this in the response of so many people to the game. They aren't willing to go searching for their own goals, they want the game to hand goals to them on a platter, and Wii Music refuses to do this. Wii Music has a scrolling instruction sheet, but it hides it away where the player can't find it, because it wants the player to deviate from the plan.

This freedom terrifies and confuses a lot of people. Many of them video game reviewers.



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

Gamerace said:
Zucas said:
Miyamoto make a mistake? Improbable haha.

I don't think he made a mistake I jsut think he had the unfortunate issue of timing with Wii Music. And Wii Music will go platinum but will not sell like it's Wii series counterpart. Wii Sports Resort will though. Mistake has not been made when Miyamoto is making projects that make Ninty money and of course he understand to make games for everyone.

So whatever you were trying to get out of this just really kinda failed haha.

 

What I'm getting at, and many here are missing the point, is that while there's nothing wrong with making Wii Music, nothing wrong with the 2-5m sales it'll likely get, eventually, what's wrong is that clearly Nintendo was expecting this to be the next Wii Fit or Wii Sports and from the looks of it, it won't be.

They could have and probably should have launched this in February (or this fairly empty summer past) and put another major seller in for the holiday season instead.

Mind, I'll say it first, Wii are still selling out so what does it matter? Yes, Wii's will be sold out all over except Japan as usual for Christmas.

It's an image thing people. The mass market is heavily influenced by image. Right now Wii is this cool, innovative, fun, must have thing. By putting so much empathize on Wii Music and it underperforming it can be made by competition to give the illustion that 'the fad is ending'. That could be utter rubbish but that's what FUD campaigns are. Releasing often misleading information (or even blantantly false - like PS2 having Toy Story graphics) to create Fear, Uncertainy and Doubt.

The fact that due to higher production levels Wii's may finally be widely available on store shelves after Christmas may falsely add to such a FUD campaign.

That leaves it to WSR to move all those Wiis off shelves again to counter such (ridiculous but possibly effective) claims of fadness. The problem with that is avg consumer thinks the Wii already does what WiiMotionPlus is adding. Therefore they won't see it as new or novel, just having more Wii Sports type games. Which is fine on one hand but doesn't create the buzz Nintendo was clearly hoping Wii Music would.

Now this may never happen and people have correctly commented that Sony and MS are poorly positioned to capitalize on this.

I am merely noting that Nintendo has made there first misstep or incorrectly judged their own market for the first time since the Wii began. Wii Music will be successful in and of itself, it's just not the universally loved game Miyamoto was aiming for. And that gives the competition an opening to spin FUD. Most likely Wii will cruise until WSR comes in to boost interest again. But if WSR doesn't and interest starts to fade and the Fad FUD begins to take hold; remember you heard of it here first.

If the competition has that good of marketing then they would already be winning.  Otherwise sales generates success and if we both agree that Wii Music will still sell well enough to be considered a success then there's not much the competition can do.

Now as for image of Ninty dissing the core gamers then this was an issue.  It's funny because a few months ago... before E3 maybe... I wrote an article talking about how Ninty needs to give more attention and PR to the core gamer as it could hurt them in the long run.  My suggestion was to bundle a core game with the Wii package alongside Wii Sports to show to the media and gamers they support all.  Funny how everyone dissed that as silly and Ninty not need it.  And then later on the backlash after E3 that Ninty doesn't support core gamers and eventually Ninty changes their stance and makes it a part of their PR.  People should just listen to me more often... I can be quite useful haha.

 



@ OP

You are not very smart.

Wii Sports is currently the 3rd highest selling game of all time. By Christmas, or soon after it shall be the best selling game of all time.

Wii Play is currently 15th, and has a chance of making it to 2nd (behind Wii Sports) by the time it stops selling

Wii Fit is currently 34th (last time I checked) but is still selling incredibly. Could end in the top 10 easily

My point is, if you expected Wii Music to sell as well as these, you are a tool. So it is fact your mistake, not our God Miyamoto's. A game doesn't have to Be in the top 10 best selling games of all time for it to be a success.

Wii Music has only seen 2 weeks in Japan and 1 in America. Little bit early for judgements I would say.

Regardless, as to what it will cost Nintendo? nothing whatsoever. Animal Crossing will sell more by the end of its life than either LBP or Gears of War II



scottie said:
@ OP

You are not very smart.

Wii Sports is currently the 3rd highest selling game of all time. By Christmas, or soon after it shall be the best selling game of all time.

Wii Play is currently 15th, and has a chance of making it to 2nd (behind Wii Sports) by the time it stops selling

Wii Fit is currently 34th (last time I checked) but is still selling incredibly. Could end in the top 10 easily

My point is, if you expected Wii Music to sell as well as these, you are a tool. So it is fact your mistake, not our God Miyamoto's. A game doesn't have to Be in the top 10 best selling games of all time for it to be a success.

Wii Music has only seen 2 weeks in Japan and 1 in America. Little bit early for judgements I would say.

Regardless, as to what it will cost Nintendo? nothing whatsoever. Animal Crossing will sell more by the end of its life than either LBP or Gears of War II

whoa whoa whoa, i agree with you there not everything can be as successful as those games but the first line is just not necessary.

 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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famousringo said:
noname2200 said:
famousringo said:
pastro243 said:

What makes Rock Band more accessible than Wii Music isn't so much the interface itself. I think it's arguable whether flicking the wiimote and nunchuk is more intuitive than controllers which are custom-built to look and operate like instruments, especially when you add in all of the modifiers for Wii Music instruments which utilize the thumbstick and A, B, C, Z buttons. You could build a case for either one, really.

I see what you're saying, and on a logical level it may be true, but that hasn't been my experience at all. Granted my sample size is small, but none of us had trouble grasping Wii Music quickly, while all of us had serious trouble adjusting to Guitar Hero's controls at first. Perhaps it's the lack of punishment for getting something wrong, perhaps it's something else, but with Wii Music we all felt comfortable in short order.

famousringo said:

 

Where Rock Band and other rhythm games really get more accessible than Wii Music is the scrolling instruction sheet which tells the player what to do and defines exactly what constitutes success and failure. You can see this in the response of so many people to the game. They aren't willing to go searching for their own goals, they want the game to hand goals to them on a platter, and Wii Music refuses to do this. Wii Music has a scrolling instruction sheet, but it hides it away where the player can't find it, because it wants the player to deviate from the plan.

This also hasn't been my experience. Again, the lack of any punishment for doing something "wrong" in Wii Music let us all play around and settle in quickly, and we quickly started to experiment. By contrast, when you don't press the right button at the right time in Guitar Hero, you lose points, get closer to losing, and get this nasty sound. From what I've seen, most people find that stressful, because most people don't like being punished when they're just starting to learn the ropes.

That said...

famousringo said:

This freedom terrifies and confuses a lot of people. Many of them video game reviewers.

THIS, I feel, really nails the "problem." People who review games have the win/lose mentality engrained in them to a far greater extent than the general public, at least when it comes to video games. I think that explains part of why that crowd is so against this game. "What, I can't lose?!" is and was a common refrain from that crowd, and they said it with true horror. By contrast, I don't think most people have that mentality when it comes to gaming. There are tons of people out there who aren't so competitive that they must always have a winner and a loser. I'd argue that the general public is less sanguine about finding stress in their hobby than traditional gamers are.

To the snobcore, freedom is something new and scary. Most of us don't have that problem, though. Not that I'm saying that's the only reason people would dump on the game (it ain't perfect, let me tell you that), but I think it goes a long way. And I would also submit that even amongst the traditional gaming crowd, the more open-minded will be okay with this product, once they've had enough time to abandon the adversarial mindset and take this game on its own terms. The E3 impressions were almost universally negative, if I recall, likely because the reviewers were trying to treat it like Guitar Hero. Quite a few of them came around once they had time to settle down with it, though.

I think it was one of 1up's reviewers that summarizes this best: he hated it at E3, thought it was a waste of time for the first hour he got his review copy, and then he "clicked" after he realized that the point was to do whatever you want.

He sucked, mind you, and I'm surprised at how proud he was of his recordings, but that goes back to my karaoke comment. I think it also demonstrates that the initial terror the traditional gamer will feel will disapparate, if they give it a bit of a chance.



Just wanted to take a second and thank everyone who actually took the time to read what I had to say and give a considered opinion irregardless of whether you agreed with anything I said or not. More than anything it's the high level of discussion on this site that keeps me coming back everyday.

I do feel, unfortunately, that ultimately despite it's success Miyamoto won't ever be happy with the end results of Wii Music. I feel it was dear to his heart and he'll be disappointed it wasn't more universally embraced.

Otherwise, I too doubt this will stop Wii any but I had this idea nagging in my mind and since my instincts have been pretty good so far thought I'd share this for discussion. Time will ultimately tell, but if there's one thing I learned from John Lucas it's that anyone can call something when it's apparent, but if you want to be taken seriously you have to be willing to put yourself out there a bit a call it even when no one else can see it.



 

SOOOOO let me get this straight.

Wii Music has only been out for two weeks in Japan and one week here. It sold 100k and then dropped to ~30K in Japan. The US has seen 100K. It hasn't come out in Europe yet.

Why is it a failure again? This is just like calling a poll early. We don't know how well it will do. It's only been out two weeks which is not enough time to tell how well it will do in it's life time. It could sell ~30k a week and do fairly well in the end.

And no, the company will not fail becuase Wii Music didn't do that well.



johnsobas

perhaps not. Sorry



Gamerace said:
Just wanted to take a second and thank everyone who actually took the time to read what I had to say and give a considered opinion irregardless of whether you agreed with anything I said or not. More than anything it's the high level of discussion on this site that keeps me coming back everyday.

I do feel, unfortunately, that ultimately despite it's success Miyamoto won't ever be happy with the end results of Wii Music. I feel it was dear to his heart and he'll be disappointed it wasn't more universally embraced.

Otherwise, I too doubt this will stop Wii any but I had this idea nagging in my mind and since my instincts have been pretty good so far thought I'd share this for discussion. Time will ultimately tell, but if there's one thing I learned from John Lucas it's that anyone can call something when it's apparent, but if you want to be taken seriously you have to be willing to put yourself out there a bit a call it even when no one else can see it.

 

Well we all want the console to succeed while looking out for our personal interests within which is good why we need to keep pushing Ninty.  Hell we pushed them so hard after E3 look what we got out of that October conference.  And people say you can't change agendas. 

So it's good that we dissect every outside and unique opinion because if you don't then you are left with the known and not the unknown.  That never bodes well with me.  Although i can't say this opinion has much creedance on affecting Nintendo, it could be something that could affect PR and we are already seeing that happen.