I was digging around the archives of Dean’s blog (the guy who wrote the xbox book) to see if he made any hilariously bad predictions like all the other journalists. I was surprised to find this Malstrom-esque post,

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/aei/2007/01/20/does_nintendo_really_compete_with_microsoft_and_sony/

January 20th, 2007

Lots of interesting comments here on the Bill Gates interview. I’m starting a new post to address one of the claims Gates made about how Sony is really the competition, not Nintendo. I would disagree with Gates. As I see it, Nintendo’s console is indeed competition for the Xbox 360. Consider the book, “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” by Clayton Christensen, the Harvard Business School professor. Christensen said that many companies fail to foresee the point when technology in their products becomes “good enough” for the vast majority of users. 

At that point, they will stop paying for more and more features in their products and then decide to buy a cheaper product that is good enough. The danger for both Sony and Microsoft is that the Nintendo Wii offers good enough graphics and some additional features that are missing from the other consoles, such as the new controller. This has happened in industry after industry, from steel to personal computers, according to Christensen. Now Christensen’s book was a bestseller in the business book category and it has been cited by numerous executives such as former Intel CEO Andy Grove for its insights into the state of competition among tech companies.

Nintendo’s bet is a big one. What if, for instance, the game developers come up with outstanding games that require all of the horsepower of the PlayStation 3 or the Xbox 360? Grove, in his own book, “Only the Paranoid Survive,” says it’s hard to judge when an industry reaches a point, which he dubs an “inflection point,” where the trend in the industry changes. When people start to complain about too many features, devices that are too complicated, and technology that they just can’t utilize, that may be the sign of the inflection point.

If Nintendo has correctly predicted that we are in an inflection point, then it could be the winner. If Nintendo is right, Bill Gates may not realize just how much of a competitive threat Nintendo represents. Or, more likely, he may just not be willing to acknowledge it.

pretty interesting

hewas so true

it's surprising to see a journalist for 07 who understood disruption

but his point about MS is horrid.

MS does not view Ninty as the competition simply because Nintendo's success might hinder the xbox brand, but Sony's success will not only negatively effect xbox products, but also Windows products. MS joined the console business to fight Sony in the living room, so that they wouldn't have to fight them at the computer desk later

It's good to see that some people actually still think before they talk nowadays.

I think why a lot of people have had difficulty seeing the success of the Wii is because they have had difficulty understanding what consumers value ... There have been endless discussions about technical features, brand recognition, third party support, price, value, big budget blockbusters and pretty much anything that is easy to create a list about. The one thing that people tended to overlook is the one thing that seems to be the most important thing to the most consumers, and that is whether the system is fun.

Well it's a lose lose situation for him anyway no matter his opinion. First, factually the wii is directly competing with PS3 and 360. Anything released in the same market at the same time competes especially stuff that are marketed as such.

Second, heres the lose-lose situation. If he says they are directly competing then he has to admit how badly he's getting rocked by it which is not good for marketing (Note we already know MS thinks its competing because of a lot of their moves such as new dashboard, Rare games, and $200 price point show they are trying to compete with it). But if he doesn't admit it then he does get to say how he's ahead of the PS3 but then he has to answer to why is the current market failing so bad because without Wii's sales in there, the shape of the market between PS3 and 360 is not necessarily healthy. Especially in regions such as Japan and Europe.

So really it doesn't matter what the PR says because usually they aren't telling the truth... including this supposed smart man but we all know what's true so no need to care what they say.