Is a 13% drop in PS3 sales this week worse than it appears?

leo-j

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leo-j on 25 July 2007

davygee said:

HappySqurriel said:

After a system has been released it starts to build a backlog of people who want to buy the system but are only willing to pay a certain price which is less than the current selling price; these people are not willing to wait around forever and may move on or decide down the road that it is not worth the price they were previously willing to pay.

When a system gets a price cut the people who were in the backlog of potential purchases become highly motivated to buy the system and there is typically a massive sales spike that lasts a short period of time (usually less than a month); after that spike sales return to a lower rate more representative of the average demand for the system.

A reduction in sales should be expected, it is not a bad sign.

Totally true, I expect it to tail off at around 28k and sit there until the big games arrive or another pricecut hits.

I doubt it, lair and warhawk coming out in august. I expect them to drop but not lower than 35k, then slowly start going up.

mM

Biggerboat

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Biggerboat on 25 July 2007

Ok, looks like I got my info for the price cut date from an uninformed site, The Source also said it had only been at the new price point for '"a few" days on his 14/7 roundup which I took to mean also 2. I'll redo my figures but obviously the dailly sales drop won't be as steep.

Hus said:

Grow up and stop trolling.

WiteoutKing

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WiteoutKing on 25 July 2007

If we take it as 5 days instead of 2, the adjusted per-day sales during the cut are approximately 9090 per day. A drop to 6443 is still a 30% drop. That's pretty heavy.

PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

johnsobas

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johnsobas on 25 July 2007

yea it might be a little worse than it seems, but either way we have to wait and see how far it really drops. One thing i know for sure is that it's not at all done dropping yet.

currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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Kytiara on 25 July 2007

Just like at launch, you need to give it a few weeks to settle down =). I wouldn't expect a huge increase in the average stable weekly sales, but I would expect something. $500 is still a lot of money, but there's going to be a percentage of people that think a 100$ price difference is worth the money.

Especially with the 60 GB having a limited quantity, those people that have heard what Kaz said and are worried about the price going back to $600 might head out and buy one. When does the new 80Gb go on sale?