know that there have been hundreds of threads about Wii Marketshare, and I do not intend for this to be one of those. Instead I intend to follow the Wii's road to 50% marketshare, if it reaches that goal, by each week posting numbers of Wii sold and PS360 sold.

I will be keeping a running tab on the amount of units that the Wii needs to outsell the PS360 by to reach 50%, as well as how much the marketshare is affected by both the increase in PS360 and the surplus of Wii's sold over that number (too lazy to do this, really). Hope I am making sense here...

Also, thanks Crazzyman for the idea and the format :) I really loved your PS3 vs PS2 thread.

Starting by the end of the Week ending the 18th of October 2008:
Wii      - 33,827,524
PS360 - 37,670,822
Gap     - 3,843,298
Marketshare Wii: 47.31%

Changes week ending 25th of October 2008
Wii vs PS360: 469,662 vs 337,486
Gap difference: -132,176
New gap: 3,711,122
Marketshare: 47.467%
Marketshare difference due to increased total units: +0.025%
Marketshare difference due to gap difference: +0.130%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.155%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 28 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: +675,371 vs +406,808
Gap difference: -268,563
New gap: 3,442,559
Marketshare: 47.654%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.187%

Changes week ending 01st of November 2008
Wii vs PS360: 486,409 vs 390,353
Gap difference: -96,056
New gap: 3,346,503
Marketshare: 47.746%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.093%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 35 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: +11,846 vs -15,864
Gap difference: -27,710
New gap: 3,318,793
Marketshare: 47.765%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.019%

Changes week ending 08th of November 2008
Wii vs PS360: 527,317 vs 468,655
Gap difference: -58,662
New gap: 3,264,686
Marketshare: 47.831%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.066%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 55 weeks

(There was new adjustments made between my last adjustment and the numbers for the week ending 08th of november 2008 came in, so there's a small discrepency in my calculations, which I'm really too lazy to sort out. It's a really tiny one, around +4k PS360)

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: +13,524 vs +26,618
Gap difference: +13,094
New gap: 3,277,780
Marketshare: 47.823%
Total Marketshare difference: -0.008%

Changes week ending 15th of November 2008
Wii vs PS360: 603,408 vs 489,924
Gap difference: -113,484
New gap: 3,151,502
Marketshare: 47.929%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.108%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 28 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: +231,741 vs +53,094
Gap difference: -178,647
New gap: 3,027,195
Marketshare: 48.027%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.097%

Changes week ending 22nd of November 2008
Wii vs PS360: 784,777 vs 675,809
Gap difference: -108,968
New gap: 2,918,227
Marketshare: 48.134%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.107%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 28 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: +8,068 vs +42,989
Gap difference: +34,921
New gap: 2,953,148
Marketshare: 48,113%
Total Marketshare difference: -0.021%

Changes week ending 29th of November 2008
Wii vs PS360: 1,365,476 vs 1,202,781
Gap difference: -162,695
New gap: 2,790,453
Marketshare: 48.273%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.161%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 18 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: -12,131 vs -50969
Gap difference: -38,838
New gap: 2,751,615
Marketshare: 48,296%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.023%

Changes week ending 06th of December 2008
Wii vs PS360: 1,178,793 vs 995,698
Gap difference: -183,095
New gap: 2,568,520
Marketshare: 48.451%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.155%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 15 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: +353,225 vs -14,897
Gap difference: -368,122
New gap: 2,200,398
Marketshare: 48.678%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.227%

Changes week ending 13th of December 2008
Wii vs PS360: 1,478,813 vs 1,155,676
Gap difference: -323,137
New gap: 1,877,261
Marketshare: 48.907%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.229%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 7 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: -90,623 vs -22,165
Gap difference: +68,467
New gap: 1,948,728
Marketshare: 48,866%
Total Marketshare difference: -0.041%

Changes week ending 20th of December 2008
Wii vs PS360: 1,835,350 vs 1,456,367
Gap difference: -381,983
New gap: 1,563,745
Marketshare: 49.122%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.256%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 5 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: +87,410 vs -57,074
Gap difference: -144,484
New gap: 1,419,261
Marketshare: 49,204%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.081%

Changes week ending 27th of December 2008
Wii vs PS360: 1,535,755 vs 1,251,806
Gap difference: -283,949
New gap: 1,135,312
Marketshare: 49.382%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.179%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 5 weeks

Adjustment
Wii vs PS360: -116,395 vs -285,437
Gap difference: -169,042
New gap: 966,270
Marketshare: 49,472%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.090%

Changes week ending 27th of December 2008
Wii vs PS360: 741,196 vs 602,856
Gap difference: -138,340
New gap: 827,930
Marketshare: 49.554%
Total Marketshare difference: +0.082%
Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare: 7 weeks

Current Totals:

Any questions or suggestions as to how and what to measure are welcome. This is purely a statistical post, and I will try my very best to keep personal opinions out of it.

DISCLAIMER: I will only keep going until Wii reaches 50% marketshare, or it becomes apparent that it will never reach that number. Also, since VGChartz adjusts it's data from time to time, adjustments are handled at the beginning of every new week. If you see anything wrong, please let me know.

Reserved in case I need more space :)

I'll do the 2009 numbers in this post.

This one too :)
Hope I won't need more than this.

My estimate for end of the year market share (weekly sales are here: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=45704&start=50).

Wii: 45.52M - 48.5%

Ps3: 21.67M - 23.1%

X360: 26.64M - 28.3%

The gap will then be 2.79M

I see the Wii selling 2M-2.2M/month in Q1 next year, which is ~ 484K weekly. I see the HD consoles dipping as most consoles would, down to ~ 180K for Ps3 and 150K for X360. 330K total.

So I see it taking 18 weeks or so (into 2009) for Wii to achieve 50% market share, and it happening roughly at the start of May.

Note: This is not a purely statistical post, and it has a few personal estimates that are not totally proof backed. No cakes were hurt during the making of this Barack Obama ad.

Thanks for your input Oyvoyvoyv (difficult name to type, that).

Also, I will take the opportunity to point out that my meaning is only to track changes, not predicting when or how much, hence my "Estimated weeks to 50% marketshare:" is simply the Gap divided by the gap difference :) As more data flows in I might do revised estimates, but pretty much any estimate is going to be bonkers because of christmas coming up.

Still, I pretty much agree with your estimate there.

Correct my if I'm wrong but I think there is a thread very similar to this one.

Any ways I think Wii will reach 50% in march '09.

If there is, I couldn't find it and I haven't seen it yet. If you find it, please post a link :)

28weeks is WAY too long. This would put it out in

It will happen before March of 2009.

As I previously stated, those 28 weeks are simply the decrease in the gap divided by the gap. It's there so that one will be able to track at which rate the gap is closing (if it is Indeed closing, if it's not, I'll have to find that infinity-symbol on the keyboard).

I know, you get silly results, but it's going to be really interesting to follow them. At least that's what I think, and that's why I made this thread, and will try to keep it updated as the weeks pass by.

Great, but this Topic wont be as epic as Crazzymans =)