As I anticipated last week, the X360 did indeed have a huge week, and did over my projected "well over 600k" units of software. This was the 3rd highest week of the year for the X360 - only Crackdown week, and GRAW 2 week did better. Some good holds and re-deux of old numbers, and some bad drops for others.

Notes: It's no real suprise that NCAA08 did so insanely well. Last year, 07 did 293k last year. This represents a 20% increase. Why only 20%? NCAA07 was the first NCAA on X360, and I believe it was more frontloaded, due to demand of a next-gen NCAA football game. NCAA07 (as I showed in a recent post about multipliers), finished with a 2.7 multiplier. If NCAA08 trended the same - expect just under 1m units (975k). However, it should hit 1m, since NCAA 08 shouldn't be as frontloaded as 07. But expect a huge drop next week (probably around 100k units next week)

APF2k8 didn't do too well - but neither did the PS3 version. However, with Madden coming in 2 weeks, APF could chart for quite sometime. Still, it's a failure for 2kS, as APF will probably finish with around 250k units, unless something crazy happens. However, since it focuses on legends rather than standard current-season players, it could certainly suprise.

Outside of the new releases, there wasn't much change, outside of Guitar Hero 2 hitting 1m. It's the first game of the year for the X360 to hit 1m. At 25k a week sales still, and very low drops, it should still hit 1.5m before GH3 and Rock Band hit.

Call of Duty 3 re-enters the charts on a massive 20% surge. Spurred most likely by a pricedrop, it could still wind up selling a few more hundred thousand units. Why? GRAW #1 is still charting, 1 and 1/2 years (nearly) after it's release. It's budget title really helped out.

Dirt, Bigs, Tenchu Z, Vampire Rain, Fight Night, and others took decent sized drops - enough to fall off the overall 50, or near it. Other big notables include Lost Planet, Crackdown, and Dead Rising continue to drop off the charts, as LP and CD are off the top 100 overall now.

Mlestones: Shadowrun (200k), Ghost Recon AW 1 (1,300k).

Obituaries: Def Jam Icon (238,124), Rayman Raving Rabbids (44,347), Fantastic 4: ROTSS (29,331)

Japan: Land of the Rising Sun (and falling X360 hardware sales)

#1 Ghost Recon AW2 has a suprisingly low drop (atleast relevant to shooters/western titles in Japan). 65% is lower than Trusty Bell, Saints Row, Gears of War, and Blue Dragon. Interestingly enough, GRAW 2 is within 50 units of GRAW 1's numbers. In just 2 weeks, GRAW2 has nearly surpassed GRAW 1's lifetime total(s). This is interesting, because it does show a significant increase of consumers of X360 games in Japan from last year - even for Western shooters.

Outside of this, not much notables. Trusty Bell is #6 in the X360 LTD's, and will surpass GOW's running total in 2 weeks. It's also on track to wind up with atleast #4 on the LTD charts. SR will hit my projected 17.5k, but not much more. DR continues to have strong drops without recovery. Expect 80k LTD from it. It should be noted, DR has sold 10,000 units (approx) since the budget re-release. Pretty good for the game. VP increases slightly.

The big question is next week: does Oblivion really sell as well as shinobi's pre-orders anticipate? Supposedly, Trusty Bell's retail orders are fewer than Oblivions. It could sell through like TB, and wind up with 50-75k, or do less. Regardless, hardware should increase next week. By how much, who knows. Nevertheless, if it increases to +4000 or so, we should see new life in some of these titles. Expect TB, Forza, BD, and VP to get the biggest increases if HW does indeed increase. Most should see positive gains.

Projections: X360 software next week: 450k (US/NA), 65k (Japan).

Hardware: 35k (US/NA), 4k (Japan)

i think that the greatest news for x360's owners is that the consoles confirms once more to be highly profitable for 3rd party developers ....ok, the HW sales have been decreasing in the last months, but SW sales have remained strong and thus the decision of not releasing a game for x360 is not an easy one for a 3rd party.

we all know that developing an A title for X360 or Ps3 might cost a lot of money and till now apart for some notable exceptions i think that a 3rd party developers have made money only out of x360 (= at present Sony has to pay for exclusives much more than MS).

Madden sales are going to be insane. Do you think the 360 version will outsell the PS2 version for Madden 08 overall?

heh, 21th.

It's hard to say... I think the 360's first week sales for Madden 2008 will be higher than the PS2's but considering the PS2 really doesn't have a lot of big games coming out this Fall/Winter it's likely that Madden 2008 won't have much competition so it may sell a lot more over time because of that.

^Thats what I was thinking. It will have stronger legs.

Madden 08 is going to be ungodly high across the board - the X360 stands a decent chance of getting close to 1m copies 1st week (but not quite). 750-950k should happen. There was no way I figured NCAA08 would hit as high as it did.

As for PS2 vs. X360's Madden - I somewhat agree with Legend. The X360 version should see very good sales 1st week vs. PS2, but the PS2 has better legs. Nevertheless, I do believe that the X360 will sell the most - by about 200k or more units. I think Madden 07 last year sold 1.8-2.0m on the PS2 vs. 1.6m for the X360. Not much of a difference, considering the huge chance of NCAA's opening week for both systems.

PS2 software has been decreasing, and will continue. It's an outdated system, and regardless, people will addopt the next gen more readily (Wii, X360, PS3), with the X360 version taking the lion's share.

Thus far, imo, X360 devs have probably done pretty well thus far. There have been very few bombs in terms of sales - except for a few real budget games. Very, very few games have done under 250k that were considered "large" budget games, or even mid-budget.

As the gen goes along, I think, with the succuess of NCAA 08 PS3/X360 garnering near 450k first week sales, that devs will still have a very profitable option in PS3/X360 - enough to where there will still be plenty of major-IP/franchise titles. Just very few exclusives. Which really isn't bad. I really could care less if the PS3 gets an IP the X360 has, because I'm still getting 10x better games on the X360 than I did on the Xbox (but wheres my dang Dai Senraku 8 for X360!??!)

Japan charts in the process of updating.

Madden is gonna be explosive next month.

Too bad for 2K Sports but All Pro Football certainly sold less than I expected and I don't think it will challenge EA's domination in football at all.