Burning Crusade sold 2.4 millions in the first 24 hours.

EDIT: But vlad321, what period is the holiday season? November + December?

But 3.5 total in its first month.

Well I get that but I mean the starting point haha.  Like this week's sales data or next week's or what.

Those are some really fanboyish and unrealistic expectations. Gears of War 2 will sell 6.3 million by the end of the year? 8 million lifetime? Are you sure you're not thinking of Halo 3? And your Resistance 2 prediction is laughably low compared to the predictions you made for the other games. LBP is tough to say, but I can't really yell at you for your prediction since your range is so broad and its sales are unpredictable.

Anyways, I'm going to guess Wii Fit, but it really depends on how broad your definition of "holiday season" is.

Haha ya think which is why I usually ignore them to give them as little credibility as possible.  I mean that's suggestive of GTA: San Andreas like openers which is just silly.  NOt to mention that low of number for Resistance 2 and LBP and not even a mention of Animal Crossing just makes ya want to laugh at humanity and its flaws.  And of course no mention of Wii Fit or MK Wii but oh well haha.  I don't think he meant it to be a respectable prediction because if he did it wouldn't be anywhere near these numbers.

Oh sorry, Beginning of October till end end of December. Seems to be the hottest video game buying time in the year.

Then the answer is Wii Fit.

Most of these predictions are pretty bad. Gears of War 2 comes to mind immediately. Last year, Halo 3 (unquestionably a bigger game) released over a month earlier and sold just under 7m copies. And it still wasn't the top holiday seller. Gears 2 will be lucky to manage something in the 4-5m range. (Remember, this is HOLIDAY sales, not lifetime.)

Resistance 2, Little Big Planet, and Fable 2 are simply laughable in this category of discussion.

Me, I'll take Guitar Hero 4 (or whatever they're calling it). Last year, GH3 sold 7.06m copies in the holiday period - more than anything else. I really don't see how any game gets close this year - assuming we're not counting Wii Sports/Play as usual. Wii Fit will do obscenely well, but not being a new release will slow sales down somewhat. Ditto for Mario Kart Wii. Wii Music and Animal Crossing aren't going to sell in this range, or if they do, it will take much longer than the holiday period to achieve it.

Guitar Hero World Tour in an easy victory this year.

Wii Fit sold 300k+ worldwide every week in October. It's already sitting pretty at over a million copies this month. It's going to top out at least doubling that in November and December.

World Tour's price is going to be a barrier of entry for it. It's going to be a tough fight, but my money's still on Wii Fit.

I doubt World Tour will do anywhere as good as GH3 over the same period.

For starter it costs about double as GH3 for those people buying the full bundle and then some of the novelty has worn off by now...