My cousin who is a management consultant told me last September that his company is advising his client to buy Sony and Microsoft. They believe that the PS3 and Vista will win. I asked him that do you know about Wii? I am very excited about it. He told me Sony kick ass on graphics and blue-ray. He also told me according to their million dollar research, video game industry is a deep pock industry which you have to be a big company with a lot of resource in order to win. Then he told me that I was wrong because the focus is not the console, the focus should be the software. Historically, it is the software that sells the console not the console itself. Sony has tons of software company making games for them. In addition, they believe Wiimote is like a USB port that any company can just plug-in if it is needed. Therefore, according to their million dollar research, Wii has no chance to compete with PS3.

Well, my question to him now is "they pay you something like $100K a year for that advice?"

The moral of the story: If you only use historical data to project the future, you will miss the mark. Also, if you have passion in you job, you will do better than other 100 professional people who do not have passion in their job.

Think they are having him unload shares of softie and sony from the company portfolio?  MS just had to put off the shut down of XP day until June 08 (claims vista driver issues).  Sony has lost to the iPod, the Wii and is losing the HD TV market too.  Furthermore, Nintendo is a deep pocket company with a lot of resoucres, and a great deal of IP, such as Mario.  The Wiimote comment your cousin made is lower than ignorance of the gaming market.  Probably a sign to short MSFT and sony. 

Well, their conclusion, though very dumb according to us, was a logical expert opinion by people tracking numbers everyday and multi-screen fancy computers.

I think they will never admit they were wrong. They will just say given the available information at that time, that was the correct conclusion and the actual development, however, aren't predictable. They also have disclaimer something like "please be advised that we can not guaranty the future."

BUT, on the bright side, because they were slowly in catching up with the reality, that's why we can make money. I bought NTDOY back in April at 40. It is 69.16 as I type this. That's 73% return!! They key to make money is for them to make such mistakes, because the general investors listens to them. 73% increase in 6 months is not a normal growth of a company's value. It is the market that just realized they were wrong about the value of this company.

The two branches of forcasting stocks: 1) making a prediciton 2) explaining why the forcast was wrong without admiting error.
It only happens once every 10 years that the little guy beats the big guys to the next big thing, but the Wii is disruptive to the gaming market and I think we did it too. After missing Apple, and Google I was wondering if I would ever latch onto one again.

In 2005 I considered putting all my money in Nintendo stock... but I decided it was too risky. I really really wish I had ;(

I bought $7000 of NTDOY recently, when it was at about $60. 24 hours later it was at $62.50.

I just wish I'd taken my own advice when I made someone buy it back when it was at $40 (this summer).  And I only got her to do it by saying, "If you're that worried, I'll tell you something.  I am very confident that this stock will be good through 2009 or 2010, but I am not 100% sure.  I am 100% sure that it will profit from now through the Christmas season.  I swear to you that there is no way Nintendo stock can fail to go up by Christmas.  You can sell after New Years if you're that scared.  I will personally pay you back if I'm wrong."

Obviously I was not wrong.  

Funny you should mention APPLE because in April, I bought both APPLE and Nintendo. These were the only two stock I bought in April. I bought Nintendo at 40 and I bought Apple at 91. Nintendo is around 69 and Apple is about 161 now.

I actually think Apple has bigger potential than Nintendo because of Mac and other products up in its sleeves, while Nintendo only depends on its current products. Comparing these two stocks' in my portfolio, Apple was "beating" Nintendo most of the time and I have to admit that Apple was a more exciting stocks with its ups and downs. One day you lose 5 dollars per share and the other days you gain 5 dollars per share. Nintendo, on the other hand, was steadily increasing its share price.

As you can see, I am against my cousin and his big billion dollar employer on these stocks. In fact, I sent him an email on April 13th to tell him that I am going to sell all my shares on Microsoft and buy Apple and Nintendo.

One month later, I sent him an email saying that Apple has gained a good 7% and he replied by saying "true, but Microsoft has also gain about 7% during that period. So it does not mean anything." About two months later when Apple hits 120, I sent him another email says,"its 120 now, that over 30% and Microsoft still at nowhere." He finally admits that he could be wrong. But told me it is over priced.

I will send him another email when I double my money. It seems very likely that Nintendo will hit 80 or Apple will hit 182 by the end of this year. I just don't know which one will get there first.

Apple may make a considerable amount of money from the AT&T iPhone deal - word is that they get a cut of each AT&T subscription. Still, I think NTDOY is a better buy.

I'm almost all-in on NTDOY, with an average share price of 42. I started buying when it was at 27. I think the stock has at least  1.5 to 2 more years of upside to it, and will go up huge if Nintendo decides to do a massive split and/or formally list on the NYSE in 2009. Looking forward to earnings at the end of this month.

The only other stock I hold is small position in Garmin, which is only up 100% in the past year compared to NTDOY's 160%. GRMN's going to pay off my student loan, NTDOY's going to pay off my mortgage. ;)

Dont know if ive replied to this thread, but im not going to read the entire thing.

I bought nintendo with all the money i had at 18.90, I now own nintendo stock, majesco and ubisoft stock... all have a big focus on the wii and casual gaming.
The video game market has so much more potential to expand to nongamers.

I think wii fit is really going to break down those walls, wii fit is going to bring down the house.

PS majesco is a really good deal right now, buy it while you can!, i plan on buying some more next time to goes near 1.30

many of my friends work on wall street, and a lot of times the sentiment on large-cap stocks is that "they're priced to perfection". of course, by "perfection" they largely mean in the eyes of fund managers. so if you know something better than fund managers, like nintendo, then it's ka-ching!