600 is a reasonable amount but I don't see it going past 1 million. I think its somewhere in between those two numbers. 800K or so? anything over that exceeds my expectations at how great it will be.

This just helps to confirm what was already believed...that Fable is a GOTY candidate!

I would be surprised if Fable II did one million the first week.

Mass Effect did 385.000 first week. I would think that Fable II would be more in the 500,000-700,000 range taking into account the increased install base.

Fable 2 is a game than many xbox owners played (the fisrt part), it sold 3 millions, so, mass effect was a new game, with more installbase + well know name, would be more like 700 - 900k.

ME 2 will deliver strong numbers compared to ME, as Fable II will compared to Fable. While Saints Row had a strong week for the 360, I think ALOT of people had Fable II pencilled for purchasing...if Fable 2 does 1 million in week 1, it's going to be HUGE...absolutely HUGE...on some levels, it would be Halo 3 like Huge.

Btw, since the OP (5 hours?), the number of users w/ gamercard data at MyGamerCard.net has doubled to well over 61,000.

There's a leader board on Lionhead's site. I was playing around with it to see what the lowest ranking is and it's 282,000. Remember people should have multiple characters that are in the leader boards and some people don't have the internet so their data wouldn't show up. So a good guess for first day sales would be just above 220,000 in NA. Fable gets released in Europe on the 24th and Japan gets it early December.

You are making the assumption that only leaderboard numbers are right, and they are not. 40% of Xbox 360 users are not online.

So that could make up a significant portion of sales that you would never know about.

uhm... I don't understand why you compare the voice data of a game with online multiplayer with one without any multiplayer though