I started wondering a while ago. I think buried in all the LBP talk among the vocal minority at message boards, the actual real world hype for Gears 2 is much more than people know. I think having an excellent first game will help its sales a lot also.

At first I figured no chance to top Halo 3 (Halo 3 sold 3.3 m it's first month.), and I still think it's doubtful. However, one thing it has going for it is more install base.

The first Gears sold 1 million it's first month.  However the 360 install base going into that Nov was just 2.9m. 360 also sold 500k in Nov so, the install base at the end of Gears 2's first month was 3.4 million.

Contrast that today, the 360 install base stands at 11.2 million, with October probably add another 300k, it will sit at 11.5 m starting Nov, compared again with 2.9 for the first game a the same point. Probably at least 12.1 m at the end of November.

Now, sales dont increase linearly with install base, obviously, or PS2 Madden 05 would have sold 10 million copies. However of course it's an advantange.

I'm predicting Gears 2 will top 2.5 million in it's first month. Thoughts?

But... but... Halo 3 is unvincibal!

Well it doesn't have the same amount of hype as Halo 3 but doesn't mean it can't top it. I mean it is basically appealing to the same crowd. Also take into account that Halo 3 was out for 2 weeks in September while Gears of War 2 will be out virtually every tracking week in November except probably the first. This gives Gears 2 a better chance.

I'd say it has a decent chance but I'm not ready to say it will. I'm still thinking about 2.5-3.0 million in November from NPD but we'll see. But definitely a possibility.

I doubt it will top Halo 3's first month or LTD sales. It will definitely beat the first Gears in LTD sales and most likely first month sales.

Alot of people buy Halo just for the multiplayer.. If Gears 2 Multiplayer is good it can have a snowball effect resulting in alot of sales.

Piracy is surely going to hit sales hard. The game is already out there, I will go play it tomorrow at a friend's , I know two more people who have it too, and a couple more who just modded their X360 as soon as they found out of these "very early releases" they can get this way.... heck, I'm giving it some serious thought too, it might be worth it to pick up an old 20-gigger if I'm to get early games and for free (or almost free), RROD or not, I think I'd take the deal >:)

No it isnt. Piracy is always very small on consoles since you actually have to physically mod the console to do it (unlike on PC, where it's just a matter of downloading a cracked game). PS2 was modded and piracy wasnt a big factor on it.

Also all new 360's DVD drives cant be flashed for some time, this will be another big limiting factor going forward, it's limited to old 360's.

Halo 3 (or was it 2, cant recall) was pirated almost a month before release and had no major effect on sales. With Gears 2 it's only some two weeks till release, better off than Halo was.

^I hope you burn in hell Magnific0 =P Piracy is never the option no matter how poor you are. If you're too poor to buy games than I think it's a sign from heaven itself screaming at you to "Get a JOB! Maybe you should use that time playing games on a job!" Something I tell all the homeless in San Francisco, except for them it's stop using your money on crack and heroin and get a job!

Sure GeoW has a bigger install base to work with, so i'll bite.

But also, I'm not 100% sure that GeoWis as popular a franchise as HALO is.
A lot of poeple that i've talked to (hooray for anecdotal evidence!) have definately heard about HALO but don't even know about Gears.

If we're talking NPD sales, then yes, Gears 2 has an excellent shot at beating Halo 3.

Why? Halo 3 had a scant few days of sales, whereas GOW2 will have the entire month. That should make it rather competitive.

Now, if we're talking first week sales vs. H3....That one will be difficult.