I started wondering a while ago. I think buried in all the LBP talk among the vocal minority at message boards, the actual real world hype for Gears 2 is much more than people know. I think having an excellent first game will help its sales a lot also.
At first I figured no chance to top Halo 3 (Halo 3 sold 3.3 m it's first month.), and I still think it's doubtful. However, one thing it has going for it is more install base.
The first Gears sold 1 million it's first month. However the 360 install base going into that Nov was just 2.9m. 360 also sold 500k in Nov so, the install base at the end of Gears 2's first month was 3.4 million.
Contrast that today, the 360 install base stands at 11.2 million, with October probably add another 300k, it will sit at 11.5 m starting Nov, compared again with 2.9 for the first game a the same point. Probably at least 12.1 m at the end of November.
Now, sales dont increase linearly with install base, obviously, or PS2 Madden 05 would have sold 10 million copies. However of course it's an advantange.
I'm predicting Gears 2 will top 2.5 million in it's first month. Thoughts?
