I just checked to see how likely a drop in YOY sales is, and it didn't happen in the 3rd year for any of the consoles last gen. However, GC did show a drop in its 4th holiday YOY sales.

You're right, the holidays are about what other people, especially kids want, from their parents. THe demand is for the Wii, not a gimped version of the 360. Most people still wanting a 360 want the top version, not a version that's going to be crippled. The recession has not hit the game market, and it likely will not. The industry has a fine shield around it, and it will be all about demand. If you dont believe me, let's discuss sales results come January.

Its not a matter of cheapest console selling. The GameCube was cheaper than the PS2, but which system sold more?

I highly doubt that it will make it this year. And while it may reach 50% market share eventually I think there are a number of factors which will test the wii's domination. I believe the main one will be when blu ray starts becoming more mainstream and the ps3 is at mass market price. If the wii is still dominating at that point then I think it should get at least 60% market share.

End of next year Wii will reach 50% market share.

^^^^ While there can be challenges to the Wii's dominance, Blu Ray is not a factor. The market for Blu Ray has outright halted its growth due to the lackluster economy. There have been several reports questioning if Blu Ray will ever be a threat to standard dvds before digital distribution takes over. What needs to happen is PS3s to start selling for $300, and for complete 360s (not the gimped arcade version) to start selling at the same price as the Wii. Until then, the Wii is going to come out with larger and larger sales gaps.

It's obvious that it's mathematically impossible for the Wii to reach 50% within this year. How is it going to outsell the competition by 3.94 mill. consoles in the space of these weeks? March next year is more likely.

If Nintendo has been stock piling... It should be able to move 1 MIL units for last week in November and all but the last week in December. That's 5 MIL. Plus add a MIL prior to releasing the flood gates...

Not likely... as it would also mean that the competition does poorly, but not mathematically impossible.

Yes.. that's right.  Nintendo has been planning to sell 1 million units/week in the latter half of the quarter to the hungry masses.  They are geniouses, don't forget.

Next year, they actually plan to sell 1 million units per week... all year long...  they will hit 100M Wiis by early 2010!

Considering they were doing 650,000 to over 1.4mil during the same time last year per week, and plan to have at least 50% more available, it might be a little more likely then I was thinknig earlier.  It really depends more on how well or little the competition sells...

That said, they will not be able to maintain those numbers long after December, and they are unlikely to increase production again.


http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=------&cons3=X360&reg3=------&start=39404&end=39446


Remember last year they were not really able to stock pile much and even stated they they would not have enough units to meet demand. This year they have increased production and only slightly increased shipments, and as far as I know made no claims to expect shortages this holiday season.

Funny thing is; I've been ridiculed all year for my predictions (and rightly so in many cases, don't get me wrong) but I'll be a lot closer than John "The Prophet" Lucas which everyone mindlessly dotes on and not a single soul will call him on it (or the countless other predictions of his that failed/will fail).
I'm not really that upset that you guys hate my guts (go ahead, I won't cry), it just seems kinda comical!