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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wii will not make 50% marketshare this year :(

AvZeroMkA157 on 21 October 2008

The Wii most likely will meet 50% market share. The question is when?

The overall rate at which the 360 and PS3 are selling will not be enough to prevent this from happening. I don't see the possibility of Nintendo screwing up anytime soon either.

In order for this to happen this year, the supply of Wii must be solid throughout the holiday season.

Hopefully, Wii Music is well received worldwide because it probably is the biggest game of the holiday lineup.

The $200 price tag of the 360 arcade bundle is clearly not a hurdle for the Wii at this point. What grounds do you have to believe that the 360 would suddenly be a compelling force to be reckoned with during the holiday season?



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bardicverse on 21 October 2008
Groucho said:

I don't think the Wii will ever hit 50%, honestly. I kinda think it'll cap out around 48.5%, and then slide a little as the HD consoles continue to pick up steam, in relative terms. Blu-Ray is a bigger deal than most think -- and not because of the consumer (its the retailers and publishers who want to switch -- they will shove it down the consumer's throat with BD pricecuts and shelf space), and those 360 price cuts are going to hurt the Wii this holiday season in America, I'm sorry to say. $199 looks a lot better than $249 when you're buying little Billy a present during a serious economic recession.

 

Beyond your opinion, there's nothing to back up your claims. The Wii keeps outpacing the HD consoles combined by a strong amount, making the gap wider, not smaller. Blu Ray has already been questioned in terms of necessity and longetivity as the market is still a miniscule number overall. The 360 cuts didnt affect Wii sales for the past month+ that they have been in effect, so the holiday season won't be any different. 

Last I understood, the XB360 Arcade does not come with a game, so with a $50 game, we're talking about the same price. The Wii already comes with a game. Of course, then add on the fact that the Wii is the hot item to be had, and that kinda kills your point here.

If you can prove to me with actual numbers and trends, I'll concede your point. You will be hard pressed to provide that data, though.



dib8rman on 21 October 2008

The year for me is in April as far as the Wii is concerned, I want to see Iwata's projection pan out, if it does I may be time I purchased a lions share of that company.

As far as that goes 50% by Jan 1 2009 would be interesting... but nothing more - there is no signifigance in that number as far as money movement.



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astrosmash on 21 October 2008
superchunk said:

With that I would peg Wii at around 42m by years end. Throughout this year I have pegged it at 45m, so it is now a little lower than my expectations, however, IF I was wrong and the 50% increase is actually WW not just NA it will definitely be over 45m.

 

 

Nintendo says 51mil shipped to retail by March 31. Do the math backwards from there and you will see supply will not constrain them to 42 mil by December 31.

 

Without rushing January shipments, they should get about 43.5 million to retail by December 31; if they rush January shipments like last year 46 million to retail by December 31 should be possible.

 

 

 



souixan on 21 October 2008
Oyvoyvoyv said:
DMeisterJ said:
Nope, it won't. It'll be like at 49.5 or something. 360 should be at 26, 26.5 PS3 should be somewhere between 20 - 21.5, and Wii should be 45 million on the dot.

So it should miss the mark by at least 1 million, but at most, 2.5 million.

 

 Well, http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=45704.

 

You do here predict

Wii: 44.75M - 48.5%

Ps3: 21.4M -23.2%

X360: 26.1M - 28.1%

 

So

1) Your predictions are very different

2) The prediction in the quote leaves 4% to no-one.

 

 


Ummm where do you get 4% in 48.5 23.2 and 28.1? that leaves 0.2%

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makingmusic476 on 21 October 2008

I hope the Wii never gets much higher than 50% marketshare. I want my third party support split equally between the Wii and pc/ps3/360. :P

I'd say 50-55% would be perfect.



makingmusic476 on 21 October 2008
bardicverse said:
Groucho said:

I don't think the Wii will ever hit 50%, honestly. I kinda think it'll cap out around 48.5%, and then slide a little as the HD consoles continue to pick up steam, in relative terms. Blu-Ray is a bigger deal than most think -- and not because of the consumer (its the retailers and publishers who want to switch -- they will shove it down the consumer's throat with BD pricecuts and shelf space), and those 360 price cuts are going to hurt the Wii this holiday season in America, I'm sorry to say. $199 looks a lot better than $249 when you're buying little Billy a present during a serious economic recession.

 

Beyond your opinion, there's nothing to back up your claims. The Wii keeps outpacing the HD consoles combined by a strong amount, making the gap wider, not smaller. Blu Ray has already been questioned in terms of necessity and longetivity as the market is still a miniscule number overall. The 360 cuts didnt affect Wii sales for the past month+ that they have been in effect, so the holiday season won't be any different. 

Last I understood, the XB360 Arcade does not come with a game, so with a $50 game, we're talking about the same price. The Wii already comes with a game. Of course, then add on the fact that the Wii is the hot item to be had, and that kinda kills your point here.

If you can prove to me with actual numbers and trends, I'll concede your point. You will be hard pressed to provide that data, though.

 

The Arcade now somes with Sega Superstars Tennis.

But even so, I don't think the $199 price point will do much for the 360.  It's not just a matter of price, but rather the matter of what people actually want.  They WANT the Wii, and they will continue to get that over a 360 despite the price difference.



Groucho on 21 October 2008
makingmusic476 said:
bardicverse said:
Groucho said:

I don't think the Wii will ever hit 50%, honestly. I kinda think it'll cap out around 48.5%, and then slide a little as the HD consoles continue to pick up steam, in relative terms. Blu-Ray is a bigger deal than most think -- and not because of the consumer (its the retailers and publishers who want to switch -- they will shove it down the consumer's throat with BD pricecuts and shelf space), and those 360 price cuts are going to hurt the Wii this holiday season in America, I'm sorry to say. $199 looks a lot better than $249 when you're buying little Billy a present during a serious economic recession.

 

Beyond your opinion, there's nothing to back up your claims. The Wii keeps outpacing the HD consoles combined by a strong amount, making the gap wider, not smaller. Blu Ray has already been questioned in terms of necessity and longetivity as the market is still a miniscule number overall. The 360 cuts didnt affect Wii sales for the past month+ that they have been in effect, so the holiday season won't be any different. 

Last I understood, the XB360 Arcade does not come with a game, so with a $50 game, we're talking about the same price. The Wii already comes with a game. Of course, then add on the fact that the Wii is the hot item to be had, and that kinda kills your point here.

If you can prove to me with actual numbers and trends, I'll concede your point. You will be hard pressed to provide that data, though.

 

The Arcade now somes with Sega Superstars Tennis.

But even so, I don't think the $199 price point will do much for the 360.  It's not just a matter of price, but rather the matter of what people actually want.  They WANT the Wii, and they will continue to get that over a 360 despite the price difference.

That's just it... holiday sales aren't about what the buyer wants for themselves.  Last year the Wii was the cheapest, so it was no contest.  This year... not the same story.  The recession in the US will exaggerate this phenominon, as well.

 



sc94597 on 21 October 2008

@ Groucho The gamecube didn't take away PS2 sales dispite being over 100 dollars cheaper, what makes you think the Wii would be overtaken by the 360 due to a 50 dollar difference.



DMeisterJ on 21 October 2008
souixan said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:
DMeisterJ said:
Nope, it won't. It'll be like at 49.5 or something. 360 should be at 26, 26.5 PS3 should be somewhere between 20 - 21.5, and Wii should be 45 million on the dot.

So it should miss the mark by at least 1 million, but at most, 2.5 million.

 

 Well, http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=45704.

 

You do here predict

Wii: 44.75M - 48.5%

Ps3: 21.4M -23.2%

X360: 26.1M - 28.1%

 

So

1) Your predictions are very different

2) The prediction in the quote leaves 4% to no-one.

 

 

Ummm where do you get 4% in 48.5 23.2 and 28.1? that leaves 0.2%

I'm confuzzled.

I mixed my predictions of percentages with millions of units sold @_@