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Forums - General Discussion - More Drilling in America Issue is Silly

Who cares? Our kids can deal with it.



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NJ5 said:

@HappySqurriel: Nice post, but now there's an extra factor to take into account... the effects of the recession in oil demand and price. This could change the picture a lot, for example it could:

- make unconventional oil unprofitable
- stop drilling and development of new fields
- last but not the least, reduce investment in renewable sources of energy. If this happens, we'll get hammered by rising energy prices after the economy recovers from the recession, which may cause yet another recession. Not a pretty picture in any way, especially since there's no Central Bank for energy which can bail us out.

All in all, I have less and less faith in the system to adequately deal with energy issues. Let's hope the third item above doesn't happen...

 

The question is, what is the recession going to look like?

If we're heading into a time where unemployment is at 10% and inflation is at 10% people's wages are (certainly) not going to outpace inflation and people are going to be much more focused on saving money. It is quite possible that this will result in people buying far more inexpensive goods from China where there is (much) less emphasis on energy efficiency and the environment, which means that the reduction in energy use in North America and Europe will (probably) be outpaced by growth in energy use in China; in particular, if you take into consideration the transportation costs and the increased energy usage of the Chineese people.

All in all, this would mean that low energy prices (in American dollars) would be a short term problem because inflation will drive up the price of commodities (in nominal terms) and increased demand from developing nations would increase the price of commodities (in real terms).

 



TheRealMafoo said:
Zucas said:

TheRealMafoo- shouldn't have needed that anyways. Anyone should be able to tell from statistics that there is a serious issue with 25% of consumption and only 2% of the world's oil reserves. But I guess concrete data helps those that need it. Point being Oil is not America's future. It just can't be given this.

I am going to make these numbers up (and grossly exaggerate them), to illustrate how these numbers don't mean anything on there own.

if 2% of the worlds oil reserves are 500,000,000,000 barrels, and 25% of the worlds oil use was 50 barrels, would we have a problem?

We need to know the absolute values of each of those percentages for the statistic to matter.

 

Yes but I would hope one would not be ignorant enough to even suggest that anyways as that would simply be laughable.  Actually I'm laughing right now that this is what begged you to question this anyways.  Silly goose.



HappySqurriel said:

This 2% of oil reserves ignores the hundreds of billions of barrels of oil that are in unconventional reserves like shale oil, and the massive quantities of coal that can (easily) be converted into synthetic gasoline and diesel.

 

 

Yes an America does have some of the most reserves of coal. But is it worth the environmental risk? That people are so willing to come into this thread an argue that we could do all these other things to get fossil fuels out of the environment and not consider the effect of it. Especially when we can switch to wind, solar, geothermal, ect.

I mean its just amazing that the first thing people do when they come into this thread is a way to try and get around the statistic.  I mean I think that shows just how much of a problem we really do have with dependence on oil as a whole.  Like addicts in their first meetings at rehab.

The point of this thread is it isn't an argument whether or not we cna continue to use oil like we do. There is no argument to that. The real issue is when will America become energy self sufficient by switching to renewable resources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and tidal/wave.



HappySqurriel said:
NJ5 said:

@HappySqurriel: Nice post, but now there's an extra factor to take into account... the effects of the recession in oil demand and price. This could change the picture a lot, for example it could:

- make unconventional oil unprofitable
- stop drilling and development of new fields
- last but not the least, reduce investment in renewable sources of energy. If this happens, we'll get hammered by rising energy prices after the economy recovers from the recession, which may cause yet another recession. Not a pretty picture in any way, especially since there's no Central Bank for energy which can bail us out.

All in all, I have less and less faith in the system to adequately deal with energy issues. Let's hope the third item above doesn't happen...

 

The question is, what is the recession going to look like?

If we're heading into a time where unemployment is at 10% and inflation is at 10% people's wages are (certainly) not going to outpace inflation and people are going to be much more focused on saving money. It is quite possible that this will result in people buying far more inexpensive goods from China where there is (much) less emphasis on energy efficiency and the environment, which means that the reduction in energy use in North America and Europe will (probably) be outpaced by growth in energy use in China; in particular, if you take into consideration the transportation costs and the increased energy usage of the Chineese people.

All in all, this would mean that low energy prices (in American dollars) would be a short term problem because inflation will drive up the price of commodities (in nominal terms) and increased demand from developing nations would increase the price of commodities (in real terms).

 

Regarding oil specifically, I believe we'll see a significant drop in demand. People will be commuting and travelling less, some airlines will go bankrupt or reduce service. I think it will affect the whole world including China, once the chain reaction of unemployment starts having effect.

OPEC is already going to cut production by at least 1 million barrels according to reports from several members (the final decision will be made on Friday in a meeting they arranged).

 



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Zucas said:
TheRealMafoo said:
Zucas said:

TheRealMafoo- shouldn't have needed that anyways. Anyone should be able to tell from statistics that there is a serious issue with 25% of consumption and only 2% of the world's oil reserves. But I guess concrete data helps those that need it. Point being Oil is not America's future. It just can't be given this.

I am going to make these numbers up (and grossly exaggerate them), to illustrate how these numbers don't mean anything on there own.

if 2% of the worlds oil reserves are 500,000,000,000 barrels, and 25% of the worlds oil use was 50 barrels, would we have a problem?

We need to know the absolute values of each of those percentages for the statistic to matter.

 

Yes but I would hope one would not be ignorant enough to even suggest that anyways as that would simply be laughable.  Actually I'm laughing right now that this is what begged you to question this anyways.  Silly goose.

Ignorance is not knowing all the facts. I just wanted clarification as to what those percentages meant before I made a judgment call on how important those number were.

The numbers are 20 years worth of oil. Did you know this when those numbers were thrown out there?

 



I think the most important thing is that no matter how you fudge the numbers, oil is finite and we are running out, while the population is growing exponentially so we'll keep running out faster and faster. Even if we could find all the oil in the planet, and get it all out at once, it wouldn't be enough. No amount of finite oil can be enough for a people that expands its population exponentially forever.

We've got energy that falls out of the sky forever. We need to find cheaper ways to harness energy from the sun, rain, wind, and lightning. Those will never stop.

We're running out of oil on the surface. We'll have to drill deeper, which costs more. At a certain depth, it costs more to drill than you can make back selling it. People will just stop drilling.



TheRealMafoo said:
Zucas said:
TheRealMafoo said:
Zucas said:

TheRealMafoo- shouldn't have needed that anyways. Anyone should be able to tell from statistics that there is a serious issue with 25% of consumption and only 2% of the world's oil reserves. But I guess concrete data helps those that need it. Point being Oil is not America's future. It just can't be given this.

I am going to make these numbers up (and grossly exaggerate them), to illustrate how these numbers don't mean anything on there own.

if 2% of the worlds oil reserves are 500,000,000,000 barrels, and 25% of the worlds oil use was 50 barrels, would we have a problem?

We need to know the absolute values of each of those percentages for the statistic to matter.

 

Yes but I would hope one would not be ignorant enough to even suggest that anyways as that would simply be laughable. Actually I'm laughing right now that this is what begged you to question this anyways. Silly goose.

Ignorance is not knowing all the facts. I just wanted clarification as to what those percentages meant before I made a judgment call on how important those number were.

The numbers are 20 years worth of oil. Did you know this when those numbers were thrown out there?

 

Of course silly.  I wouldn't make a thread with totally correct thoughts without being able to back it up.  I was just hoping people would understand there is something wrong with the statistics and that knowing that oil is running low as it is they could see how much of an issue it was.  Or how much of an issue it isn't.

Point of this thread is to debunk a myth... they myth that we can help drop gas prices and lessen dependence on foreign oil by drilling more here.  It's a complete lie and nothing but tricks politcians are using such that you will vote for them.  The only viable option is to start investing more in alternative energies and move in that direction while slowly phasing out our usage of oil starting with the ones we get from the foreign countries.  This is what we need to do.

 



Zucas said:

Point of this thread is to debunk a myth... they myth that we can help drop gas prices and lessen dependence on foreign oil by drilling more here.  It's a complete lie and nothing but tricks politcians are using such that you will vote for them.  The only viable option is to start investing more in alternative energies and move in that direction while slowly phasing out our usage of oil starting with the ones we get from the foreign countries.  This is what we need to do.

 

 

I see it a little differently. Both candidates say that moving off of foreign oil is a 10 year plan. That means it will take longer then that. I think the most important thing we can do for national security is to get off of dependance for foreign oil.

We do that in two ways. One is find alternative sources, and the second is to increase domestic production. For every barrel additional we can make, is that much sooner we get off of foreign dependancy.

We will never be off of oil 100%. All we can do is reduce it's usage. The goal is to make as much as we need... We would get to that goal sooner if we produced more then we produce today.



umm.... if we spread that 2% over 30 years we could actually go 100% independent... the danger is that we would be out of oil at the time, and if we don't have any permant energy solutions we are screwed. I say we stretch it out over 75 years and make a good dent in our indepence.

Besides, it would help our economy.Right now we are sending 700 billion dollars a year into other countries economies... imagine if we left it in the US...



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