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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ten Week Countdown 2008!

Looks Like i'm doing good so far



^_^

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^Well I have to admit, your full set of predictions looks rather odd to me, I was one to downplay the importance of Black Friday week to Shams last year, but it is still a massive week even if the effect is on the US market only, yet you don't really seem to have anysignificant jumps going into that week.



TWRoO said:
^Well I have to admit, your full set of predictions looks rather odd to me, I was one to downplay the importance of Black Friday week to Shams last year, but it is still a massive week even if the effect is on the US market only, yet you don't really seem to have anysignificant jumps going into that week.

 

So I suck

 

WEll lets see what happens, I'm still confident in my numbers, I just noticed I have the lowest numbers for all 3 consoles that week.



^_^

Well I guess the tolerance ideas isn't going to work in my favor haha.



It may yet do Zucas, you might turn out to be the most consistant across the weeks and win overall.
With my scoring method and the rather unpredictable weekly sales it's possible to get loads of points (bad accuracy) one week but be right on the money the next week.

It seems actually, that the first week has been generally underpredicted by the 8 of us for the Wii, but over predicted generally for PS360.
BHR was the only one who guessed low for the X360, and he and myself the only ones low for PS3, but for Wii only Veggie overshot, and then only by a tiny amount.

-----

@skeezer... Not neccesarily in terms of single weeks sales, but in terms of the weekly trend for the 4-5 weeks surrounding Black Friday week I think your increases are too linear.... your first few, and last few weeks however look good to me (but then I can easily be wrong too )

For next week I think I will almost definately have the advantage for PS3 sales, because they are only 190k now, and Japan will more than likely decrease for week 2 to offset some of the increase in PAL/America.... and I have the lowest guess for PS3 at 220k.

My Wii and 360 are more gambles though, If Gears of War doesn't really have much of an effect then you (skeezer) and Veggie should be easily the closest, but it needs to have quite a big impact to get up to the next biggest prediction (300k shared by 3 of us) wheras if it is in the middle, then all of us will be quite a bit off. Wii meanwhile I put a decrease from week 1 to week 2 because I thought the supply might be on and off again, and i figured Nintendo would fit it so that Guitar Hero in week 1, and CoD in week 3 might get more supply than very little in week 2.... however it may just go up incrementally like it has been, and thus giving that week to BHR-3. (He, Zucas and DMJ were the 3 to predict an increase from 1 to 2, but Zucas and DMJ are low anyway)



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TWRoO said:

It may yet do Zucas, you might turn out to be the most consistant across the weeks and win overall.

With my scoring method and the rather unpredictable weekly sales it's possible to get loads of points (bad accuracy) one week but be right on the money the next week.

It seems actually, that the first week has been generally underpredicted by the 8 of us for the Wii, but over predicted generally for PS360.

BHR was the only one who guessed low for the X360, and he and myself the only ones low for PS3, but for Wii only Veggie overshot, and then only by a tiny amount.

Well I didn't do my averages to really fit on weekly basis.  I did it such that all 10 will add up to the most correct total.  But we'll see.

 



^I did the same, except the adjustments made to Wii in particular have messed that up, so now I am hoping Nintendo manages to pull off some decent supply.

(being used as a back-up store for next years tables)

Onto the predictions.... all figures are in thousands of console units

---

Wii week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 Total
09tarheel 390 440 490 580 1,040 970 1,200 1,800 2,050 900 9,860
BHR-3 410 460 540 610 1,180 845 995 1,450 1,190 540 8,220
Blacksaber 300 360 400 550 880 700 800 1,100 950 520 6,560
Carl2291 420 470 550 600 1,000 900 1,000 1,250 1,000 600 7,790
darkjonnyx 420 480 530 620 1,100 950 1,100 1,700 1,400 650 8,950
Darthdevidem 415 465 550 690 1,190 950 1,150 1,500 1,370 690 8,970
dexorosourus 275 300 350 400 650 750 850 850 950 500 5,875
DMeisterJ 450 520 550 650 1,000 750 870 1,100 950 400 7,240
haxxiy 410 420 470 570 1,070 870 1,020 1,370 1,020 570 7,790
koffieboon 405 445 485 675 1,130 980 1,100 1,525 1,450 650 8,845
MANUELF 390 430 460 550 1,100 950 1,000 1,200 950 550 7,580
NinjaBlade360 385 415 450 650 1,075 895 1,000 1,450 1,155 500 7,975
non-gravity 450 510 560 680 1,220 1,020 1,100 1,400 1,100 560 8,600
Noobie 420 450 520 880 980 925 1,050 1,300 950 440 7,915
ph4nt 430 495 600 715 1,050 900 1,200 2,100 1,400 900 9,790
Pineapple 360 410 485 590 950 750 930 1,300 1,000 450 7,225
postofficebuddy 400 430 500 550 1050 700 800 1,100 1300 600 7,430
Skeezer 410 460 500 600 950 840 900 1,350 1000 500 7,510
theprof00 395 440 560 760 1,135 860 1,070 1,530 1,180 590 8,520
TWRoO 435 490 585 700 1,200 880 1,100 1,590 1,300 580 8,860
Veggie 410 430 480 600 1,100 800 1,100 1,500 1,200 700 8,320
zexen_lowe 390 450 500 640 900 950 1,000 1,300 1,100 550 7,780
Zucas 420 480 550 670 1,080 850 1,000 1,450 1,100 630 8,230
                     
Jadakiss1217 440 510 600 800 1,200 950 1,100 1,500 1,000 500 8,600












Original - - - - - - - - - - 0.000
Final - - - - - - - - - - 0.000


---

PS3 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 Total
09tarheel 280 300 320 390 660 580 650 880 900 470 5,430
BHR-3 235 250 300 380 685 575 685 1,000 725 385 5,220
Blacksaber 240 260 290 320 520 440 550 750 690 400 4,460
Carl2291 230 300 290 330 650 500 650 970 800 420 5,140
darkjonnyx 250 290 290 340 600 530 650 900 700 340 4,890
Darthdevidem 235 280 305 340 640 530 640 900 790 390 5,050
dexorosourus 225 250 300 325 500 450 550 700 750 400 4,450
DMeisterJ 250 280 270 280 450 400 500 900 750 350 4,430
haxxiy 240 260 300 410 840 610 700 940 790 420 5,510
koffieboon 230 250 320 375 600 540 650 1,015 900 500 5,380
MANUELF 270 320 300 340 500 420 500 780 600 400 4,430
NinjaBlade360 245 285 300 355 510 525 575 810 710 380 4,695
non-gravity 230 280 290 400 780 570 680 900 740 350 5,220
Noobie 280 300 310 340 600 480 650 1,010 690 450 5,110
ph4nt 240 270 320 360 600 540 630 800 670 420 4,850
Pineapple 260 260 310 360 600 500 650 850 710 430 4,930
postofficebuddy 260 285 300 340 790 550 690 880 810 420 5,325
Skeezer 260 320 350 400 760 580 700 920 760 400 5,450
theprof00 330 320 335 475 640 490 620 885 715 435 5,245
TWRoO 250 300 310 350 550 500 580 870 730 400 4,840
Veggie 240 250 300 340 570 420 600 800 730 370 4,620
zexen_lowe 250 280 330 370 560 580 650 800 700 370 4,890
Zucas 270 300 350 380 600 420 500 750 580 300 4,450
                     
Jadakiss1217 270 310 360 450 720 650 680 1,000 820 400 5,660












Original - - - - - - - - - - 0.000
Final - - - - - - - - - - 0.000


---

X360 week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 Total
09tarheel 160 200 220 300 530 450 520 600 680 330 3,990
BHR-3 160 170 230 300 585 450 535 680 585 310 4,005
Blacksaber 180 230 260 330 500 430 500 670 650 300 4,050
Carl2291 150 200 230 250 450 330 380 550 450 250 3,240
darkjonnyx 150 220 200 240 400 350 440 650 500 250 3,400
Darthdevidem 150 190 220 270 590 410 560 750 630 310 4,080
dexorosourus 175 200 275 325 550 450 550 600 700 350 4,175
DMeisterJ 160 230 210 220 400 350 430 770 660 240 3,670
haxxiy 140 170 220 260 490 350 450 670 550 300 3,600
koffieboon 155 180 270 320 550 430 510 700 660 290 4,065
MANUELF 170 210 250 300 650 460 600 750 590 320 4,300
NinjaBlade360 175 235 240 300 440 450 480 505 615 275 3,715
non-gravity 150 210 200 280 530 390 470 570 500 250 3,550
Noobie 175 210 205 250 400 330 440 510 480 280 3,280
ph4nt 170 210 260 310 520 480 540 750 630 310 4,180
Pineapple 160 190 210 280 500 400 470 600 500 270 3,580
postofficebuddy 180 220 210 250 600 400 500 575 750 300 3,985
Skeezer 160 210 240 280 470 400 480 620 500 300 3,660
theprof00 210 265 290 310 515 400 500 645 500 270 3,905
TWRoO 165 220 250 310 590 460 540 715 590 290 4,130
Veggie 140 210 250 300 600 400 600 750 600 300 4,150
zexen_lowe 180 210 250 290 450 440 500 570 500 260 3,650
Zucas 180 220 300 350 550 400 480 700 550 280 4,010
                     
Jadakiss1217 170 210 240 340 580 500 580 750 620 280 4,270












Original - - - - - - - - - - 0.000
Final - - - - - - - - - - 0.000


---

DS week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 Total
09tarheel 380 420 500 650 1,170 1,000 1,250 1,750 1,950 870 9,940
BHR-3 385 425 530 735 1,330 1,150 1,300 1,700 1,630 625 9,810
Blacksaber 600 700 800 850 1,400 1,250 1,350 1,800 1,600 600 10,950
Carl2291 625 725 825 900 1,350 1,100 1,100 1,650 1,500 625 10,400
darkjonnyx 470 530 630 800 1,400 1,200 1,400 2,000 1,600 750 10,780
Darthdevidem 500 570 640 810 1,410 1,290 1,470 1,880 1,730 830 11,130
dexorosourus 425 450 500 650 750 850 900 1,000 1,100 600 7,225
DMeisterJ 650 750 850 950 1,300 1,000 1,050 1,500 1,300 650 10,000
haxxiy 410 510 540 670 1,010 960 1,060 1,560 1,260 610 8,590
koffieboon 390 470 560 785 1,355 1,175 1,450 1,875 1,775 850 10,685
MANUELF 420 460 520 600 1,300 1,000 1,150 1,450 1,100 800 8,800
NinjaBlade360 530 610 690 860 1,390 1,165 1,330 1,875 1,635 655 10,740
non-gravity 390 470 630 820 1,380 1,220 1,420 1,700 1,600 600 10,230
Noobie 470 580 690 850 1,700 1,500 1,620 2,030 1,470 830 11,740
ph4nt 420 500 600 720 1,250 1,150 1,400 1,700 1,450 800 9,990
Pineapple 500 550 630 810 1,450 1,270 1,500 1,800 1,650 800 10,960
postofficebuddy 390 430 500 550 1,200 900 1,050 1,300 1,650 800 8,770
Skeezer 450 540 630 800 1,400 1,250 1,520 1,800 1,720 750 10,860
theprof00 555 630 695 905 1,610 1,350 1,550 2,020 1,875 760 11,950
TWRoO 400 480 600 790 1,420 1,280 1,450 1,830 1,700 750 10,700
Veggie 360 410 480 710 1,400 1,250 1,600 1,900 1,700 800 10,610
zexen_lowe 420 500 600 690 1,050 1,120 1,340 1,900 1,800 850 10,270
Zucas 450 560 670 820 1,400 1,150 1,500 1,900 1,750 800 11,000












Original - - - - - - - - - - 0.000
Final - - - - - - - - - - 0.000


---

PSP week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week 9 week 10 Total
09tarheel 180 170 190 230 380 340 400 490 520 280 3,180
BHR-3 155 165 180 235 410 365 420 520 450 260 3,160
Blacksaber 160 170 180 200 300 250 350 550 500 250 2,910
Carl2291 170 190 210 230 330 250 240 450 390 180 2,640
darkjonnyx 170 170 190 230 350 320 370 520 440 250 3,010
Darthdevidem 200 210 215 230 390 320 435 650 580 300 3,530
dexorosourus 150 210 180 250 350 250 275 325 400 250 2,640
DMeisterJ 230 200 220 250 450 350 370 390 650 250 3,360
haxxiy 150 250 230 240 420 300 400 650 500 350 3,490
koffieboon 195 205 205 220 355 350 425 585 540 345 3,425
MANUELF 150 250 270 300 400 330 400 650 480 300 3,530
NinjaBlade360 140 175 185 220 325 320 405 575 525 245 3,115
non-gravity 210 180 170 190 340 320 400 600 520 280 3,210
Noobie 310 210 225 265 470 440 510 590 470 330 3,820
ph4nt 180 230 250 310 520 480 540 750 630 340 4,230
Pineapple 180 190 220 260 440 420 480 660 600 330 3,780
postofficebuddy 200 210 230 280 575 440 500 580 710 330 4,055
Skeezer 150 200 240 270 450 400 460 620 570 260 3,620
theprof00 200 230 260 350 520 500 505 795 690 440 4,490
TWRoO 200 185 195 230 430 400 470 640 550 320 3,620
Veggie 140 170 220 260 420 370 410 520 460 270 3,240
zexen_lowe 190 220 250 290 430 470 530 620 530 300 3,830
Zucas 170 200 230 270 420 300 420 650 450 250 3,360












Original - - - - - - - - - - 0.000
Final - - - - - - - - - - 0.000


---

 

 

---

  [                         Total 10 weeks                        ]
[                          Highest week                          ]

Wii PS3 X360 DS PSP Wii PS3 X360 DS PSP
09tarheel 9,860 5,430 3,990 9,940 3,180 1,800 880 600 1,750 490
BHR-3 8,220 5,220 4,005 9,810 3,160 1,450 1,000 680 1,700 520
Blacksaber 6,560 4,460 4,050 10,950 2,910 1,100 750 670 1,800 550
Carl2291 7,790 5,140 3,240 10,400 2,640 1,250 970 550 1,650 450
darkjonnyx 8,950 4,890 3,400 10,780 3,010 1,700 900 650 2,000 520
Darthdevidem 8,970 5,050 4,080 11,130 3,530 1,500 900 750 1,880 650
dexorosourus 5,875 4,450 4,175 7,225 2,640 850 700 600 1,000 325
DMeisterJ 7,240 4,430 3,670 10,000 3,360 1,100 900 770 1,500 390
haxxiy 7,790 5,510 3,600 8,590 3,490 1,370 940 670 1,560 650
koffieboon 8,845 5,380 4,065 10,685 3,425 1,525 1,015 700 1,875 585
MANUELF 7,580 4,430 4,300 8,800 3,530 1,200 780 750 1,450 650
NinjaBlade360 7,975 4,695 3,715 10,740 3,115 1,450 810 505 1,875 575
non-gravity 8,600 5,220 3,550 10,230 3,210 1,400 900 570 1,700 600
Noobie 7,915 5,110 3,280 11,740 3,820 1,300 1,010 510 2,030 590
ph4nt 9,790 4,850 4,180 9,990 4,230 2,100 800 750 1,700 750
Pineapple 7,225 4,930 3,580 10,960 3,780 1,300 850 600 1,800 660
postofficebuddy 7,430 5,325 3,985 8,770 4,055 1,100 880 575 1,300 580
Skeezer 7,510 5,450 3,660 10,860 3,620 1,350 920 620 1,800 620
theprof00 8,520 5,245 3,905 11,950 4,490 1,530 885 645 2,020 795
TWRoO 8,860 4,840 4,130 10,700 3,620 1,590 870 715 1,830 640
Veggie 8,320 4,620 4,150 10,610 3,240 1,500 800 750 1,900 520
zexen_lowe 7,780 4,890 3,650 10,270 3,830 1,300 800 570 1,900 620
Zucas 8,230 4,450 4,010 11,000 3,360 1,450 750 700 1,900 650











Jadakiss1217 8,600 5,660 4,270 - - 1,500 1,000 750 - -
                     
                     


---

 

 



I think Ninty will have quite ample supply. I actually did some research and investigation into some trends earlier today to just see what Wii could accomplish both hardware and software wise when comparing it to last year's numbers. And ya know it was very simply done but I came around to some pretty large numbers so as long as they have the supply(2.4 million a month along with reserves should be enough) this will be huge. Like it wouldn't surprise me to see this from NPD:

Oct 2008- 1.00
Nov 2008- 1.75 million
Dec 2008- 3.00 million

And that's just for America. Add another 1.5 million from Japan and 5.25 million from Europe and in the last 3 months you got epic numbers. Of course we are only talking about last 10 weeks but that would be about 11 million for the last 10 weeks worldwide which is surely stunning.

And I won't even get into software which I must say will be unlike anything else for Wii this year. I can only imagine what it'd be like if it had a sleuth of games like PS360 has for this holidays but games like Wii Fit and MK Wii will probably outsell anything they release during it.



pretty good way 4 ranking us TWRoO man was i close 4 the wii i don't think 360 will get much of a boost next week cause GOW2 comes out like one day b4 the week ends i'm quessing like 225k

i did my avereges 2 fit a weekly basis and just adjusted a little if they weren't close 2 a decent total looking back i wish i would a gave more 2 all 3 consoles for week of dec 27 and jan 3 i think that will b my downfall



                                                             

                                                                      Play Me

I'm LAST? Aww crud.

Well, it's not me being bad, it's you guys being good. Take that as a compliment. Actually I was awesome (JK).

At least it can only go upwards from here :D

Well, of course it could go sideways, or downwards as I lose by more...

 

Overall, I liked my way of ranking better :P

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS