It's definitely a matter of 'When' versus 'If' at this point. So what are your predictions for when the Wii will have sold more systems than the GameCube in each territory and worldwide?
To help those playing along at home, here are the current numbers:
|
| GameCube | Wii |
| Japan | 4.02M | 3.10M |
| Americas | 12.81M | 3.72M |
| Other | 4.76M | 2.49M |
| World | 21.59M | 9.30M |
In Japan, Nintendo only needs to sell about 900K more Wiis to surpass the GameCube's lifetime sales. The Wii is averaging around 80K a week, which would put the Wii on top in 11.5 weeks. Hopefully increased supplies allow Nintendo to cut the time down to 10 weeks (the week ending September 23rd). To put that in a slightly different perspective, the Wii will outsell the GameCube (that had an effective lifespan of about five years) in less than one year on the market.
Skipping the Americas for a second, Nintendo will have to work a little harder in the 'Other' territories. The Wii is about 2.27M consoles behind the GameCube's installed base outside of Japan and the Americas. Nintendo is shipping the fewest units to these 'other regions' with average sales of about 60K per week. At this pace, it'll take 38 weeks for the Wii to catch up. Any production increases will be proportionally split as they are now (i.e. Europe and company will continue to get fewer units than Japan and the Americas). So with only 24 weeks left in the year, it won't happen in 2007. But with a small increase in the numbers and solid holiday sales, Nintendo should be able to accelerate the crossover point and the Wii will overtake the GameCube in the ‘Others’ in late January 2008 (the week ending January 27th).
Back to the Americas: Land of A Lot of GameCubes. While many may consider the GameCube a failure, selling 13M systems is nothing to sneeze at. And it's a large number that’s going to take a while for Nintendo's Wii to catch up to. While the Americas seem to be getting a slightly higher allocation of units, it's nowhere near the proportions for the actual sales of the GameCube. (As an aside, it's interesting to note how well balanced sales are among the three territories. Of course we can't say that this is driven by demand since the Wii is still supply constrained and the system is virtually sold out worldwide.) If the Wii continues to average 100K a week, it will take forev… I mean 90 weeks (almost two years!) to make up the 9.1M difference. I’m sure this is unacceptable to both Nintendo and the Americas, however. But even with a huge increase in supply, this milestone won’t happen in 2007. Look for the Wii to finally overtake the GameCube about a year from now in summer 2008 (rough estimate, the week ending June 28).
As for the worldwide installed base, Nintendo has already conservatively estimated that they will have made a total of 20M machines by the end of March 2008. But most people agree that Nintendo will attempt to hit that number by the end of 2007. I know it would look great in Nintendo’s 2007 annual report to tell shareholders that the Wii has outsold the GameCube by the end of Nintendo’s fiscal year -- March 31, 2008. And they will do everything they can to make that happen.
Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.
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