@KBG29

"Microsoft and Sony will be marketing the crap out of Banjo, and Little Big Planet both of which are in direct fire with Nintendos core audiance. Home will also be launched very soon, and it is going to be one of the biggest services Sony has ever took part in."

I thought that LBP was targeted to Wii casual gamers. :p
And has Home yet to get definate launch date ?

"Not to mention both consoles also allow users to rent SD and HD movies directly onto the console. Microsoft has a very well known name brand behind there service in the form of netflix,"

Doesn't work that well in Europe. And Netflix is for U.S. only.

"We will finally start to see new exclusives once to twice a month the remander of the PS3's prime years. "

And have those exclusives been that helpful in past ? Maybe for couple weeks.

"Next year most retailers will only be offering HDTV's, this will obviously expand the growth of the HD market and with more people having HDTV's the liklyhood that they will pick up a HD compatable device such as PS3 or 360 will only become greater."

Sigh, how many times have we been through this Hdtv-discussion on these boards ? I can't even count how many times. Casuals don't care for those things. Even if they have Hdtv (like myself), it doesn't mean they won't play Wii.
I have Pc for Hd-gaming (have been long ago before Ps3 and 360 came out ;) )

"and renting movies from DLC providers, the need for a console or media box with a large amounts of storage will only grow. Both the PS3 and the 360 are ahead of their time. With every year both systems become more and more of a usefull device for anyone in or out of gaming."

You know Htpc's have been out for long time.

@kabhold

"Would you buy a HDTV to just watch analog broadcast? I enjoy a great resolution. And graphics. Realize the difference."

You know that many countries don't broadcast Hd-resolutions. (At least not in Europe)

"All I'm saying is that I will not buy any game for the wii if it's available on a HD console. And if it isn't I won't buy it unless it's a great game. which the wii is lacking (Unless it's made by nintendo)."

You can go see my game collection on my profile for Wii games and almost all others games coming out for Ps3/360 also come to pc anyway.

"When my friends come over and see the difference.....well they make a decision."

I take all of your friends are "core"gamers. Most of my friends are "casual"gamers and they have had blast with Wii and with Ps2+Buzz.

In my opinion Wii will get that 50% sometime around Q2-Q3 next year.

If I had to guess I would say sometime next year. Part of me says it won't happen though, that's a lot to ask.

I have a 52 Inch full HD television, and i only have a Wii. I have no interest in getting an HD console (used to own an X360 but it died on me) and definitely little interest in Blu Ray at the current price levels.

I think there is this big assumption that having a Full HDTV somehow leads directly to large sales of Blu Ray players and HD consoles. I think many people underestimate the reason for buying HD televisions. People are not necessarily as concerned with the HD component as with the fact that these screens are large, thin and very attractive.

People aren't not delaying buying X360's because they do not have HDTV's, it is because the Wii is more innovative and perceived as more fun. Thats why the Wii is still selling double the amount of the X360 even though the X360 is now cheaper.
Blu Ray is not doing well simply because it is qualitatively not much better than the DVD, or at least not enough to warrant the steep difference in price in terms of the hardware but also in terms of disk price.

I think the PS3 and the X360 will sell more combined this holiday than the Wii because there will not be enough Wii's in the market to avoid this. I do however think that Wii may slip above the 50% mark sometime next year, maybe around April.
In the longer term though, the Wii will probably fall below the 50% mark ( Even I may get a PS3 when it costs $199).

It will either happen this year, or 1st quarter of next year, or it will not happen until either the 360 or PS3 stop selling.

It's still supply constrained in the US, and Nintendo has said there will be major supply increase in November and December. Not sure if that means the start or end of November.

it won't happen

Keep dreaming. It's not going to happen

It will happen guaranteed.

360 and PS3 can only have so many price cuts, and Wii is still supply constrained in America, and also has the power of multiple price cuts and new colors / bundles.

the Hd twins are pulling out all the stops very early, Wii is saving them, if Wii isn't past both combined by early next year, it will probably take till September 09, this all depends on stock in America really, and once Wii gets some games in Japan, it's going to take off.