I know there's been a gazillion topics about the 10 year plan of Sony's PS3 but I wanted to throw out a few thoughts I had as to why it "could" backfire on Sony ('could', not will).

Firstly, I am not trying to bash sony in any way.  These are just opinions and thoughts which have crossed my mind and thought they were rather valid.  I'm not saying the 10 year plan wont work as I'm very certain they will keep the PS3 alive for 10 years, much like the PS1 and PS2.  However, My question is:

Q. Is Sony going to release a new console before the PS3 has been on the market for 10 years.

A. I would say 'Yes'.  It would be foolish not to introduce a new system around the same time as, or at most a year later then their competitors for a number of reasons. 

a) Firstly, from a consumer perspective, the next generation of consoles from MS and Nintendo will make the PS3 seem like it is a last gen system. (Much like the PS2 is last Gen - I'll address this point shortly) - Only that there is no new system coming from Sony.  The graphical upgrade may not be huge or even much at all but to consumers, a product 5 years old is still 5 years old.  It will loose it's Sleek, and new feeling it currently has alongside the next gen consoles.

b) By 2012, the power of the Cell in the PS3 is going to be so insignificant that it will no longer be able to rely on its specs to push the system.  In fact, there are already CPU/GPU's available that blitz the Cell in the PS3... they will be hugely discounted and even obsolete themselves over the next 12 - 18 months so imagine the power in 3 and a half years from now and how cheap it will be, let alone in another 8 years.

c) By 2012, Stand alone BD players/recorders will be Cheap.  More then likely under $50 a pop for a player or $120 for a recorder. (You can already pick up models for under $200). This does not mean people will buy a PS3 for it's BD playing capabilities and play games on, Especially if the next gen systems come with BD players OR another medium which will more likely be the case.  Just like now, people are NOT buying the PS2 to watch DVD's on then just so happen to buy games for it.

d) The PS2 is at the tail end of it's life. Next year it will drop in sales even more and by early to mid 2010 we probably wont be able to buy them anywhere.  IF Sony do not release a Next gen system before the 10 year life span for the PS3, by it's 9th year, it's sales will be deminishing so much that by it's tenth year, (the year Sony bring out the next system), the PS3 will hardly be selling anything at all as it is now a weak (by comparison of tech at the time), 10 year old console.  It's profit/returns will be so low it will not offset any loss's on the PS4 and this will cause them to loose market share as they would be competing with cheap, 4 year old consoles and being 10 years old is a big difference.

e)  This being more speculation then anything else... What IS the Next gen systems going to be like?  Will they have HD graphics, super processing power and 3D Interactive user input?  Depending on what the User input will be like, the PS3 may look completely inferior alongside a new controle scheme.  I say this because the Wii controles have started a trend and I am certain, by the next xbox and Wii2.0, the PS3's controlls will be feeling like they are from the nes ere.  A Perrefrial addon is not going to egnite PS3 sales.  No addon in history has ever achieved that.  Much like the so called PS2 motion controles that where going to give the wii a run for it's money.

f) During the Next Gen, will the Wii keep selling really well into the Wii 2.0 life much like the PS2 has into the PS3's lifespan? I can't give a definative answere for this one.  The Wii has done something no-one (or not many) thought it would do.  Will it have huge legs and keep selling because of it's controls or will it suddenly stop selling upon next gen release?  I personally think it will be the PS2 of this gen and keep selling well into Wii 2.0's life.

All of my above points have led me to the conclusion that if Sony do not release a console before the 10 years plan for the PS3, then they will surely loose a large % of marketshare and leave the field open for another contender to take their place during the interim.

I personally believe they will release a PS4 around the same time as next gen (or a year later at most).  However, if they do this, it will have a relativly large impact on the sales of the PS3 and will prohibit it from stellar 100 Million + sales.

Unfortunatly, Both of my conclusions come off as backfiring for sony.  No console for 10 years, being the worst case senario for them, but as the PS3 has kind of already backfired on them anyway, (we can all agree Sony was expecting much more then what has happened so far), Introducing a PS4 and continuing the PS3 for 10 years is their best option.

Hope you enjoyed my post.

In fact I'll say it right now, if anybody in their right mind (i.e. not fanboys) think that Sony want to have the PS3 as their only home console for the next 8 years then they're dilutional. It's simply not in their plans.. Of course they'd love to have the PS3 selling like the PS1 and PS2 for near 10 years but atm that doesn't look likely..

That's true. I didn't even think of that one. After about 4or 5 years I begin to get sick and tired of a Console generation (going back to Snes days... while I had a Nes, I was still just a little kid and never got sick of that thing), and I don't think this Gen will be any different. in about 2 or 3 years I will be etching to see what new tech in gaming will be released.

There is no 10 year plan. Sony just said that last year when the sales of PS3 were rock bottom to take the heat of themselves just like HD fanboys say Wii is last gen to pretend their console is going to win this gen and just like Sony and Microsoft execs say they are not competing with Wii to hide away from the fact Wii is outselling them by miles.

I don't think any sane person seriously believes that PS4 (or whatever the next Sony console is) would not be released before 2016.

10 year plan is a myth. It is just Sony PR spin. I say lifespan of PS3 will be cut short due to it not being the market leading console. 7 to 8 years is maximum lifespan for PS3. PS3 is not a PS2 in regards to sales.

360 will last 5 to 6 years.

Wii will last 9 to 10 years.

what do you mean we won't be able to find ps3s in a few years. PS3 is selling faster than the 360

The first thing is with a 10 year plan it does not mean another system is not launched before the end of the last gen system.
I see the 360 lasting around 6-7 years New system launch 2010-2011
WII lasting 7-8 years new system launching 2011-2012
PS3 lasting 6-7 years new system launch 2011-2012 I think the lack of BC has hurt the PS3 and will hurt the PS4 if they continue this trend

Yes, but here's a new way of looking at it. If the Wii wins this console generation, going by past track record, Nintendo will still only release a console in the next generation that is comparable to the PS3  or 360 in power. So as long as the PS3 is getting good games and as long as big time movies are coming to blu-ray, then Sony doesn't have to release a new console until the generation after next. Especially if the Wii becomes the standard. Nintendo could still keep the Wii on the market without releasing a new console for a number of years (just look at the original Gameboy); however, eventually the Wii will reach market saturation and the PS3 will be able to be sold for only a fraction of its original cost thus generating much more sales for itself as well.

It is possible at this point in time that the only console line that is really prepping for a next gen is the xbox.

 I said PS2, not PS3, is at the end of it's life and by early to mid 2010, we won't be able to buy them anymore.

 This could be true.  If Nintendo are selling this many consoles, why would they be even considering another one so soon.

With your other point,  Perhaps Nintendo Will make it comparable to PS3 graphics wise. (I did actually say something along those lines in my origional post).

But, what will the user interface be like?  We have seen what the Wii has done and it proves the point that more then graphics could be the deciding factor for best sales.  An addon perephrial does not generally do as well as a new system with that control packed in.

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@tuoyo, supernova82 and xman: I think you're all pretty much in the ballpark. Any of those predictions is likely to happen.  I'm just looking forward to the Next Gen already.  If we're getting 1:1 this gen, next gen is only going to perfect that... then bring on the 3D holograms or VR systems a couple gens after that.! LOL.