It's about time Rol. 

others will be insane this holiday. its possible that mario kart wii, wii fit, wii music, wii play, wii sports and animal crossing could dominate the top ten for a long time. i expect wii music to outsell animal crossing at 5 million lifetime

Did you know that rock music was huge in Japan. Not just J-pop rock but American-British rock as well. Rythm games are also really popular the problem is that Guitar Heroes is basically Guitar Freaks and they have been playing that game in arcades for years.

I also think that this game will succeed far more in Europe than US because of how casual that game is and how expansive are the Guitar Hero and Rockand over there.

Thanks for the correction, I didn't know Japan had a guitar game.

Yeah. GuitarFreaks is pretty much the same as Guitar Hero. It's done by Konami just like DDR. Red Octane and Harmonix just add the great idea to make the game for the west and bundle it with a guitar controller.

Ooh ooh! The thread is hot. The thread is hot. Hah hah. The thread is hot. The thread is hot. Hah hah. (see 'Hot Boyz' for pun origin)

Like the new color coding feature in the sidebar that tells you where the discussion is going. Good job VGC!

OK OK OK OK o-o-o-OK!

Responding to my doubters (and congratulators)...

No, not ALWAYS right but often.

Bite your tongue!

Whoa there partner. Keep making predictions like that and people'll think you're crazy.

Alright where to begin?
Think I'm crazy once again, do ya? Well check this out.

Going by VGChartz's very own...charts, the last game released from the Wii series, Wii Fit from late May (in Americas anyhow), posted these numbers in the Americas alone:

American Chart for Week Ending 24th May 2008
http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php?date=39593&console=&maker=&boxartz=1

729,598

That's 729,598 Wii Fit packages sold between its Wednesday May 21st American release and VGChartz's Saturday May 24th cutoff sales counting period. May 21 = 1, May 22 = 2, May 23 = 3, May 24 = 4. That's a 4-day sales span and Wii Fit sold nearly 3/4 of a million units in that European workweek-style period.

Keep in mind that Wii Fit was much more expensive than the usual game package. Nintendo's usual releases run (U.S. wise anyhow) $49.99 ($50) but Wii Fit was going for $89.99 ($90) and STILL sold that kind of volume.

True, Wii Fit had a buzz behind it being a fresh idea with a snazzy marketing campaign behind it but even in a tough economy people found room in their wallets and pocketbooks to pick up a $90 magic bathroom scale and fitness game combo. Wii Music is at that easier to snap up $50 price range. Wii Music may not be quite as curiosity-arousing as Wii Fit's exergaming extravaganza but being a part of the Wii series with the packed-in phenomenon of Wii Sports, the Wiimote-bonus of the fun Wii Play, and now the exercising-meets-gaming power of Wii Fit, Wii Music will follow a similar trajectory of success. Believe it or don't but the Wii Series is yet ANOTHER Nintendo franchise and because of this will guarantee to pull in big numbers due to brand familiarity.

Check out the sales the following week—which so perfectly end on the last day of May—by VGChartz's very own figures:

American Chart for Week Ending 31st May 2008
http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php?date=39600&console=&maker=&boxartz=1

729,598
      +
104,054
      =

833,652

Like the Wii console itself this bulky product ran into supply shortages which kept the numbers lower than its potential. Wii Music is not strangled by such problems. It's just the disc alone so it will be easier to produce (Wii games make more notice in the store cases than the actuall Wii itself) and resupply and therefore sell. Starting off with such a high opening week figure won't make it too hard to surpass 1,200,000 from launch to end of the NPD's tracking period much less VGC's tracking period.

Want to know another reason why this will come to pass?

Wii's reputation is becoming bedrock and its future games will see better chances for super sales the further the life of the system continues. It's almost been a full 2 years and people KNOW that Wii is THE system to have. This is why Guitar Hero III and Rock Band have been selling better on the Wii long term. Even though supply still holds its game sales' potential back, the system captures early adopters, late comers, and everyone in between to contribute to the phenomenon.

Also, its userbase has grown a lot since last September so there's more sales potential within this vast and growing audience. Not only does it have that "Wii series franchise" thing going for it but it also has more people in Wii's existing base who would be more receptive to trying out a title like Wii Music. Like I said before there are those who still find it hard to play Rock Band and Guitar Hero despite those titles accessibility. Wii Music is not designed exactly like them and it's Nintendo's take on the music game genre. Not outsourced stuff like the Namco-developed Donkey Kongas or sadly ignored stuff like Nintendo EAD-developed Donkey Kong Jungle Beat on the forgotten Gamecube but music gaming with Wii identity on the most popular console on the scene, the Wii.

See what I'm talking about when you look at VGChartz's numbers when Wii Play came out in mid-February 2007.

American Chart for Week Ending 17th February 2007
http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php?date=39131&console=&maker=&boxartz=1

179,157

Now check out Wii Play on the next week:

American Chart for Week Ending 24th February 2007
http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php?date=39138&console=&maker=&boxartz=1

179,157
      +
122,050
      =

301,207

Now for the time period that covered the end of February (the short month):

American Chart for Week Ending 3rd March 2007
http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php?date=39145&console=&maker=&boxartz=1

301,207
     +
95,860
     =

397,067

Take off a few days and make a guesstimate of number of sales lost in that short subtraction and you'd get a number really close to this figure.

What a difference a year makes. Monthly Wii Play numbers consistently hang around that 200,000-300,000 mark except on the holiday season when the numbers start looking at half a million and a million. Games like these have legs longer than that Russian lady who was pictured in the Guiness Book of World Records with the world's shortest man. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/2969038/Worlds-smallest-man-meets-woman-with-worlds-longest-legs.html)

Unlike the February release of Wii Play, Wii Music comes out in close proximity to the salesstorm known as the holiday season. Late October, then all of November and all of December. People are STILL nearly 2 years later desperately trying to search for a mere Wii console. When they finally get one, they might want to find a few games to add along with it. Since it comes already packed in with Wii Sports they may naturally try to buy its brothers and sisters. "I got my Wii Sports so I gotta get Wii Play. Cool! It comes with an extra controller and hey look! It's a new one. This Wii Music looks like fun. I can't find Wii Fit anyhow (again!) so this'll do I guess."

To be honest with you my '3,000,000 by end of year in U.S. alone' number may be too low. Most certainly my '5,000,000 by end of year worldwide' number! It launches 4 days earlier on October 16th in Japan and will be an utter smash. When you get Europe and the rest into this mix, worldwide 5,000,000 may be much too modest.

I didn't specify whether that 750,000 minimum Wii Music opening week sales was worldwide or Americas alone. Worldwide that's a given so we'll have to see for Americas region. Nevertheless, there's no doubt that it can reach 1,200,000 October monthly NPD figures. There's also no doubt that it can make that 3,000,000 end year sales mark in U.S. alone or that it can best that 5,000,000 end year sales mark worldwide.

There's gonna be a hell of a lot of Wiis this time around after 2 Christmas seasons of hopeful buyers going home empty-handed. So salesbase will skyrocket soon to make my 60 million end of 2008 Wii sales worldwide come true. Europe is turning very Nintendoey and that's gonna help out tremendously in making sales numbers.

You're welcome, Gamerace. A wager?

Hmm, your Wii Music prediction thread...

And your current sig:

Oh you predicted the 20 million Wiis too? And you called Wii Fit over GTA IV accurately (wish I was around more at that time to make that foresight)? Maybe you're a worthy contender after all.

I don't do that ban bet stuff. I'm not into silencing nobody on the forums. Too many good posters here and it's best to hear everybody's input.

I CAN do signature additions though. How's "All Hail The Mighty Gamerace!" or "Long Live John Lucas!" or something of that nature? Let's discuss the terms.

I think I covered everything. Any questions anybody? Comments?
John Lucas

To be specific I agreed with your original prediction of 20m Wiis (since at that time I was new and not into making chest-beating prediction threads). Re: WiiFit I disagreed with you on your it'll outsell Halo 3 1st weeks prediction but did say it'll do better than GTAIV (at least individually not necessary 360/PS3 combined).   Check your own threads for specifics

I'm not into ban bets either, that's lame.   I was thinking betting a VC game but the sig idea is good too.  

Ah that's a good idea! Let's combine them! A VC game AND a sig change.

Duration of sig change? 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, half a year?

VC game gift of the winner's choice, of course. I like this idea! THAT'S how you do a bet!

John Lucas

Okay $10 VC or Wiiware bet (that's something nanaztips and I started.  Unfortunately I lost that one...)

I'm tempted to say 1 month sig chance but you post so infrequently these days I may not get much satisfaction out of 1 mth so let's go 3. Whatever the other guy fancies as long as it's in good taste.

So what do you want to bet on specifically? 750,000 1st week? 3m NA, 5m WW by end of 08 or all three? If it meets or exceeds you win, if not...

Sounds good to me.

All terms listed in thread like I stated previously.

It's on!

John Lucas