So how long before HSG hits Japan? 2-3weeks?

Even more certain that this will (relatively) flunk in its first week - <100k for first week. What happens to the PS3 if/when this happens?

I really doubt HSG will flunk, but who knows.

If HSG, a rather casual game doesn't do too well, then it shows that the install base of the PS3 has nothing to do with the owners of the PS2, and are primarly more hardcore gamers, and not middle of the road, like PS2 owners were.

Was HSG even mentioned at E3?

Which I think is completely true.

The PS3 is too expensive to be a casual games device. And HSG doesn't seem to be a game that attracts hard-core gamers IMO. Look at the comparitive sales of "My Summer ..." last week.

The PS3 is doing badly (i.e. PSP like) with games anyway. It does seem to be adopted more as a BluRay player/media device.

The other issue I see with HSG is the Wiimote/WiiGolf. I personally don't see the point of playing any "standard controller" based golf game ever again. It would be like steering a car with a single non-analog button. If it came out with golf controller (or used the Sixaxis as a golf club for swinging) then it could work (anyone know if it does this?).

Anyway - I'm getting into trouble for staying up too late ;) Night all!

HSG is partly a casual game, but in Japan I think there are also many hardcore gamers that play it. It should certainly sell well amongst current PS3 owners in Japan, and the huge first shipment is obviously evidence of that.

I don't think Dragon Quest games typically have large first week multipliers. I'd say there's about a 80% chance the game stops between 600-900K. 1M would be very impressive.

America might be able to tack on 100K.

Within a couple weeks, it will be the #3 Wii game in Japan though, and the #1 full price game. That's a big breakthrough for third parties on Wii in Japan.

Erik i don't think dragon quest games usually come out so early in the lifecycle, and all the people that want to buy a Wii cannot right now. I think you're right it'll probably be around 750k though.

Erik has it right. This is very big if DQS can manage 700k+, as it's the first major full-price Wii game.

For the Wii to really do well, it has to shed the image of budget price Wii titles like Sports/Play, and begin to embrace the standard priced games that did well last generation. Should DQS have a decent normal multiplier, it spells good news. However, the worry could be that it ends up like a real Dragon Quest game, sells great 1st week, and bombs the next. Im not saying it will, but the next 2-3 weeks are very critical to gauge the Japanese market. If DQS does well, we should still have some decent, traditional games from the Japanese market for the Wii, as opposed to a permaflood of Wii Sports/Play/Diary/Fit/Baby Feeding titles.

mrstickball, they're coming anyways. Wii's install base is so much bigger and growing at so much faster of a rate in Japan that they have no choice but to put games for the Japanese on the Wii. It's not like the 3rd party 360 or PS3 games are selling well.

Did they put more Wiis in shops for this release?

I expect the game to sell high but under a million.