The article on the main page brought up some great comparasions. Keep in mind that in 2011, Nintendo will release the next generation system, marking the beginning of the end for the Wii- most generations only last 5 years! Take a look at all the previous yearly releases:

NES              1985

SNES            1991

Nintendo 64 1996

GameCube   2001

Wii               2006

Next gen      2011

I think by the time 2011 comes around, the Wii will have saturated the market as much as it can. Let's compare this to the DS which is 4 years old. It was released only a year after GBA Sp. The portable market is very different than the home console market, and the original Game Boy lasted a whopping 9 years before its true successor, the GBC debuted!

So that means 2008, 2009, and 2010 are the key years for Nintendo to sell the Wii, because once the next generation system debutes, the sales for the Wii will begin to fall dramatically. They should end up with 40 million by years end. They plan on having 50 million (shipped) by March.

How many will they end up with next year? I'm predicting around 65 million- about the NES' lifetime sales. That then leaves 2010 as the final year the Wii stands alone as Nintendo's home console. I'm guessing they may reach 75 million by the end of that year, and in 2011 when the next Nintendo comes out, the Wii sales will fall, but I still think it will reach over 80 million before then. I don't see it topping much more than 90 million personally, unless they can get some kind of HUGE jump in sales by 2010. I think it will end in the 80's. Keep in mind Nintendo controlls how many they produce, and it's up to them just how many they want to end at.

I think that with the success the Wii is having now, a successor won't come until 2012. If you notice, it was 6 years until the SNES was released after the NES and the NES had great sales. With the Wii ready to outpace it, don't expect to see a "Wii2" until 2012. I mean, if the GC can live 5 years....

As for lifetime sales, I see it selling more than the PS2. 2009 will be its peak year. 2010 will have 2008 sales. 2011 will be somewhere between 2006-2007 sales. Several million will be sold in 2012 assuming that's when the "Wii2" is released. I can imagine the Wii selling around 5m units a year on average from 2013-2015, like the PS2 is doing now in its 8th year.

That's 90% opinion and heresay. Sorry, but there're no promises that Nintendo plans on releasing a brand spanking new console in 2011. If I had to guess, it'd be 2012 at the earliest. And even when they do release their next console, Wii may still sell well afterwards, like the PS2 into this generation. Even the NES and SNES sold well after their respective "demise"(s).

Except that NES was released... 1983.

I doubt we will see N6 before 2012, 2012-2013 seems plausible. Nintendos problem will be N6 to beat Wii, so that Wii won't eat the next gen sales and Wii owners upgrade to the next gen. Wii will also sell well after the next gen is out.

As for the "15 million next year", i find it hard to believe Wii would sell so badly. With the current manufacture rate, Wii is a million short of 30M a year and realistically, the demand doesn't look like it's going down. Especially when you look at NES shipments; NES peaked in the Americas 3 years after its release in the region, which would be 1988, with 9 million shipped units of hardware.

I think you have to take into consideration when Microsoft and Sony release their next gen systems. While the release of Nintendo's new system will not be entirely dependent on the releases of those two, I'm sure Nintendo would like to release their new system around the same time as the others (or no more than one year later from the first one released)

so if Sony and Microsoft decide to extend the life of this generation I'm sure Nintendo would follow somewhat....maybe they wouldn't follow exactly, but I think they will take those releases into consideration

I doubt Nintendo will release any info about "Wii2" while Nintendo is looking at how the Wii is selling right now. Demand is not going to let up soon in fact it should be increasing as Christmas comes closer. Still, I believe Wii production is going slow down some time late 09 to early 10.

You are forgetting the growth in the market that will really affect numbers in the next 2 years.

China of course, but also India's middle class and Sth America too. Even traditional markets have all gone Wii crazy, but in some cases only recently, they will gross tons of cash in tp the future.

Then also remember Nintendo unlike any other time in history have the family friendly kids / parent / casual market all wrapped up.

Lastly, and this is definetly a first from my perspective, everybody that has another console still wants to get a Wii.Theres no competition for what niche Ninty is offering.

I think that Nintendo will unveil the Wii successor at E3 2011, then release it holiday 2012.

That would mean that 2009 and 2010 would be the peak Wii years which fits with the expected games to be released in 09. And many more should follow in 2010 because of MotionPlus and developers finally realizing some potential.

If they are gonna release the Wii successor in 2011, then they would have to announce it in 2010, which would affect the strong sales of Wii due to MotionPlus enabled games hitting their stride (and all games, really).

Anyway, that's just my opinion.

i see the next console 2012 at the earliest, i see 2010 being the peak year, the good game sof 2009 will act as the catalyst speeding up wii momentum

Considering Nintendo has shied away from E3 now... I don't think so.