Well guess you can take GTA4 out of the equation now. The numbers do look very good though. What I am more interested in is next years numbers, because after PGR4, Halo3, Lost Odessy, Blue Dragon, and Mass Effect Drop this year, what is left for 360 next year. All I have slated is Fable 2, Alan Wake, Too Human, Elveon, Huxley, and Halo Wars. I just don't see that standing up to MGS4, FFXII, Killzone, LBP, White Knight Story, the Getaway, GT5, Wardevil, LA Noire, and Infamous. I am not trying to be a dick or anything (didthat a few days ago), but I just don't see anything to compeleing that I can't get on my PC. I think Gears, Alan Wake, Eleveon, Fable 2, and Huxley will be fine on my PC. And yet again Halo will not persuade me into a 360.

true kbg but the titles coming out this year will be for christmas, when its most important.
Right now microsoft is focusing on titles this year, while ps3 is for next year (ill finally get a ps3 when those titles come out and price drop) for now im sticking with my xbox because of this christmas but there are some pretty good games announced right now

right now sony has better but who knows

update 8 august '07.

My conclusion is that my numbers for the 360 in 'others' were pretty near and those for america were to high but that's because there were rumours for a price drop.
Next week we will see a huge jump for the 360 in sales for america I think sales might hit 65 k or something.

1/ I think u are a bit too high for ur america hardware sales prediction ...
3M in 2 month ... (and without GTA now)

2/ 65k ?
I dont know but it will give us an idea of the "Xbox360 demand" for the NA market.

 With madden releasing together with a price drop the sales will raise 80 - 90% not as much as the 134% the PS3 had with the pricedrop.

 i'm not trying to flame you.... just like taking down in boxes your compact text

Fable 2, I see it doing quite good as it is the game people wanted instead of the first one (it's kind of the KZ2 of it's category if you see the analogy) of course it won't beat a MGS 4 or FF, but it's not PC kind of game in my opinion and i'm not sur it's released on PC is it ?

alan wake, good question that one could be a PC game.... but peronally I see more a silent hill like game selling on console than PC... especially since that game is going to be a crazy resource eater and if you want to have great graphics you'll have to probably upgrade your PC...

too human it can get a certain PS 2 crowed though and some japs... I don't know enough about the game to extrapolate..

Elveon, same thing as too human but that one has been so silent lately I4m even wondering if they still are going to release it lol

same thing with huxley, but that one if comes out could be a big blast among FPS players halo fan and MMO JAPS FREAK.... so that one if well branded can be a surprise....

Halo wars can surf on the halo frenzy but it's a RTS and I don't see it working on XB.... but who knows they might have cooked one balanced for XB and fun to play.... wait and see....

you maybe forgetting Banjo-Kazoie 3 that could attract some kids on 360.. personally I Don't see any platformer on PS3 or XB being big sellers... it's just not really their crowed anymore...

Dark messiah blablabla (lol) I see that doing better than elveon right now... but because of the low exposure of elveon

infinite undiscovery could be a hit but we don't know enough yet either

now you are forgetting a lot of titles that are still under code names or TBA

 I won't start a full list because I'm lazy (but things like GOW 2, halo project (the peter jackson stuff), dead or alive, ninja gaiden, project delta, condemned 2, dead rising 2 etc......)

now to that you add all the games we don't know about at all there is still hop for games...

 MGS4, big seller without a doubt but the port menace is still flying around, and it's not coming at the best periode to attract non fan people in the PS3

FFXII, that one is probably not coming before 2009 if I understood.... so maybe a little early to put it in 2008 competition... but definately is going to be a seller too

Killzone 2, if GOW 2 is coming out too next year I don't see that game do better in sale than GOW 2 especially if it doesn't evolve from what we saw (which I doubt i won't) but I don't see in that title a big seller or at least not an un matchable competitor

LBP, I don't know why I don't believe in that title (at least not for a PS3 crowed) but I'm probably wrong

White Knight Story, never heard of it so there is already a problem of communication on that title if they want to get some people to buy PS3 with that

the Getaway, GT5, Wardevil, LA Noire, and Infamous the rest beside GT 5 for sure and LA noire maybe I don't really think the other are unrichable....

so for what I see now MGS 4 and FF are the only 2 big contenders, the rest are not big mamoth in my opinion or at least like I said not unmatchable.... and MS as yet to announce their line up for 2008 where Sony already started widely... so I'm pretty confident on the future line up.... so i'm confident on the sales... especially if the result of this year holiday season is in favor of XB.... because then they'll have to prove to the editor that they must stay exclusive.... because trust me even square enix will not stay with Sony if they don't jump significantely in the sales.... and right now it's not happening yet... (the bump even if goes on is not a jump enough yet)

So you have some good points.... but the XB 2008 line up is not even close to be started to unfold... LGC and TGS will be the turning points for both constructor... but at last E3 I really percived Sony into panic mode compare to MS (I'm not discussing the entertainikng factor of both conference) you don't show a line up for 2008 that early especially if you don't talk at all of your 2007 (or close)..... it's like if baseball team was trying to sell baseball tickets for 2007 season and say they are going to be good in 2008... it's really not the best way to go to make your sales go up for christmas and rensure the dev teams at the same time.... so we really need to wait until the end of TGS... to really start to se the picture on both side and compare...  

Your November and December numbers are insane. I don't think the 360 will approach the numbers it posted last year. The PS3 is gaining momentum and the 360 is losing momentum. Last holiday may very well be the best holiday the 360 will ever see.

The price cuts were poor and the Halo benefit may not pour into December like the Gears of War one did. It doesn't have the 'first mover' advantage like Gears did (being the first big FPS on the platform) and also it will have to be better than Gears to sell as many consoles.

 I do agree since last holiday Xbox 360 was already on the market and the Wii and PS3 was starting to launch...This holiday season looks pretty exciting considering the Wii is in high demand and Halo 3 is releasing for the Xbox 360...Also PS3 might be in for a shocker considering Sony is bringing out a healthy dose of exclusives....such as Ratchet and Clank, Lair, Heavenly Sword and many others...so this Christmas its going to be a close war.....O_O

The most difficut think to gauge is the extent of demand for Halo there will be by non-360 owners. Obviously, the 360s sold for Gears will have affected this demand to some extent. Further, the 360 failure rate will affect this demand. The price will affect this demand, and the availability of the Wii (if it's available) as well as the PS3's possible Christmas price of $499 or inclusion of games/controllers as a bundle around Christmas may affect it as well.

One of Microsoft's biggest issues thus far is that their audience tends to be among the core gamers who are a little more 'plugged in' regarding the goings on in the game industry. A larger portion of them are willing to buy a console for one game, but a larger portion is also aware of the 360's reliability issues. Last year MS was very successful in no small part due to $100 rebates and other good deals offered around the Christmas season.

So there are a lot of factors here. Last year is no indicator of Microsoft's success this year because too many things have changed.  If I were going to make a prediction -- and because we don't know how MS will play its cards this is a half-blind prediction -- I think they may break a million units sold in December, but I don't think it will be by much and I strongly doubt they'll find any magic formula to break a million in November as well.  World Wide.

Oblivion seems to have better legs then TB in the 2nd week.

I lowered my numbers for both games : Oblivion 125k -> 90 k and TB 90 k -> 80 k