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Forums - General - McCain's Convention Bounce Essentially Gone

tokilamockingbrd said:
akuma587 said:
tokilamockingbrd said:
I would guess Barack is hoping that the economy keeps getting worse. It seems to be his "winning" message.

There are still what 48 days left, and the debates. Obama's ties with Freddie and Fannie are just now coming to light, and most of these polls were taken from Sunday-Tuesday, when the crash happened and all. Also for Obama to win he will need a 2-3 point lead. He is doing well with younger voters, but they do not turn out as well as the old fogies mccain has locked in. Another thing these polls were taken around the time or before it was made public the hack job that CBS did on Palin's interview. So we shall see. I expect the momentum to shift back to McCain then back to Obama several times before election day. It looks like whoever has the mo going at that time may win.

Remember Obama is a poor debater. He got crushed by Hilary, so you cannot count on one side or the other now. Also Palin is pretty quick on her feet, and she is affable, so even if Biden debates better, if she is "likable" she will hold her own. Most people in America like Palin, I think it was 40% Favorible, 30% unfav (which is higher than Obama and Binem),

Right now people are in Panic mode about the economy so do not count your chickens before they hatch.

You are just plain stupid if you think Obama had any influence whatsoever in the government bailing out Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac.

You are also assuming that the polls accurately reflect the electorate, which is not necessarily true because they can only legally call land lines.  Many young and even 30 year-old people have ditched their land line.  My mom is 48 and she got rid of hers.  This is a flaw that pretty much no poll can overcome as they tend to skew towards older people in this day and age.

 

Obama had no connection to bailing out Fannie and Freddie. I am saying is part of the reason they needed to be bailed out. Him and all of the other People in Congress who were lobbied to leave them alone. It was not an Obama thing, it is a washington thing. McCain tried to point this out in 05, but Congress including Obama made no move. Chris Dodd the person in charge of the oversight of F & F amd was given the most campaign contributions, isn't that ironic? Guess who was no. 2... Barack Obama.

Now John McCain DID recieve some money for his campaign from F & F, but it was all individials, and from not the company itself. And it ammounted to about 1/8 of what Barack recieved (in only a faction of the time, the data is totals from 1989 to present). These are all facts. You cannot argue them. What you can argue is the motive behind the cash Obama recieved, but not the fact he was the #2 recipient. Also, JM is on the Congression record slamming F & F in 05, you cannot argue with any reason that McCain did not make an attempt to stop the corruption that led to the collapse of the housing market. If I was BO I would try to not mention F & F or the loan crisis because it will blow up in his face... he should lead the disscussion other place... Like saying for 50,000th time that McCain is Bush's bitch. That may work, but it is too soon to tell.

 

lol... somebody's been watching Fox news.  I enjoy tuning in from time to time just for the giggles, but seriously man, it will rot your brains if you watch too long.

As far as Fannie and Freddie, neither campaign is clean. 

"More: "Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, was president of the Homeownership Alliance, which advocates the expansion of homeownership through low-interest mortgages funded by Fannie and Freddie. Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr., who is heading McCain's vice presidential vetting panel, was a lobbyist for Fannie Mae. Mark Buse, a longtime McCain aide, lobbied for Freddie Mac before returning to McCain's Senate staff."

Moreover: "Obama also has ties to the firms. James A. Johnson, the former head of his vice presidential vetting panel, was a chief executive of Fannie Mae, as was Franklin D. Raines, who said this week that he has been consulting with the campaign on housing issues. Maria Echaveste, a top Clinton White House official whose husband, Christopher Edley Jr., is a close Obama friend and adviser, has lobbied for Freddie Mac, and former commerce secretary William M. Daley, a top Obama backer, was an in-house lobbyist."

McCain co-sponsored a bill in 2005 to impose new oversite on F&F, Obama introduced his own bill in 2006 to stop abusive lending.  Both campaigns have money ties and lobbyist ties to this entire mess.  Pretty much everyone in politics do.  Both presidential candidates also proposed reform, and both were shot down.

 



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HappySqurriel said:

In the context of the original post, I do think that it is interesting that Obama is leading in national polls while sites like pollster.com and electoral-vote.com show John McCain winning the electoral college. Now I could be wrong, but I suspect this is because Barack Obama is winning in states with low per-capita electoral college votes by a very wide margin, while McCain is winning states with high per-capita electoral college votes by a much smaller margin.

From my experience, state polls generally lag behind national polls because they are not done so regularly.  However, there have been a lot of state polls recently, which makes the discrepancy less severe.

 



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

HappySqurriel said:

In the context of the original post, I do think that it is interesting that Obama is leading in national polls while sites like pollster.com and electoral-vote.com show John McCain winning the electoral college. Now I could be wrong, but I suspect this is because Barack Obama is winning in states with low per-capita electoral college votes by a very wide margin, while McCain is winning states with high per-capita electoral college votes by a much smaller margin.

That has been a democratic party complaint.

The electoral college gives slightly more per capita voting power to the smaller states to make sure they  don't get bullied by the states with more people.  Well that and because of the whole slaves thing... but i mean we don't have slavery anymore.

It also hurts independents.  I mean Ross Perot got 12% of the vote or something crazy like that... yet no electoral votes.  If he got electoral votes his party could of really stuck around as a real third option.

There are advantages to it as well and a lot of problems with a direct popular vote format.  So it's an interesting conudrum.



akuma587 said:
The collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have been catastrophic, at the same level as AIG.

 

 

Yes, In fact even worse. They HAD to bail out F & F, it would have been really bad. The problem is the corruption that led to the collapse. F & F can be linked to the root of the housing woes. It all started with their corruption and it trickled down.

 

My whole point was McCain noticed it and tried to do something. It is only speculation as to why Obama recieved so much money from them. It could be something like because he is a Minority (which would not be that bad) or it could be bad, and he was helping F & F escape regulation and oversight.

McCain is not an advocate of heavy regulation. He prefers strict oversight. (which is similiar except it is more hands off). Any of the 2 might have saved F & F. Heavy regulation is bad because it makes everything(cept certain things, like public works) less effcient. Oversight allows the Gov to keep an eye on corruption without interfering with the markets. George Bush might have been slightly Lasse Fare (spelling?), McCain is a classic liberal.



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

tokilamockingbrd said:
akuma587 said:
The collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have been catastrophic, at the same level as AIG.

 

 

Yes, In fact even worse. They HAD to bail out F & F, it would have been really bad. The problem is the corruption that led to the collapse. F & F can be linked to the root of the housing woes. It all started with their corruption and it trickled down.

 

My whole point was McCain noticed it and tried to do something. It is only speculation as to why Obama recieved so much money from them. It could be something like because he is a Minority (which would not be that bad) or it could be bad, and he was helping F & F escape regulation and oversight.

McCain is not an advocate of heavy regulation. He prefers strict oversight. (which is similiar except it is more hands off). Any of the 2 might have saved F & F. Heavy regulation is bad because it makes everything(cept certain things, like public works) less effcient. Oversight allows the Gov to keep an eye on corruption without interfering with the markets. George Bush might have been slightly Lasse Fare (spelling?), McCain is a classic liberal.

Yeah, that's how i like my government too... All Teddy Roosevelt style.  You don't restrict anybody from doing what they're doing.... but you keep a big stick to whack em on the fingers anytime you see them reaching into the cookie jar.

 



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HappySqurriel said:

In the context of the original post, I do think that it is interesting that Obama is leading in national polls while sites like pollster.com and electoral-vote.com show John McCain winning the electoral college. Now I could be wrong, but I suspect this is because Barack Obama is winning in states with low per-capita electoral college votes by a very wide margin, while McCain is winning states with high per-capita electoral college votes by a much smaller margin.

 

 That is what happened in 2000.

Gore Won NY, CA, Mas, Maryland, Vermont, Illinois and a few others by a HUGE margin, Bush won Ohio, Florida in a VERY close race. Texas was the only big state bush won handily in.

As for Akuma mention of lagging state polls. The battle ground state polls are kept up much better. They are done several times a week.



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

why are we wasting our time for on stupid polls. the media think these polls are so accurate and they waste a lot of time discussing these stupid polls when they the media should be talking about real problems that we are dealing with. mccain is running a real smart campaign and him getting palin on the ticket helped his base a lot and gave a lot of air time remember their is never any bad publicity. obama should be leading a whole lot and obama campaign is getting very desperate obama is attacking like a lipstick pittbull and that will hurt him in the long run why, because he ain't change he is more of the same. people will not vote for a black guy i know it is sad but it is the truth i know a lot of hillary supporters that will not vote and may have switched. i have a gut feeling that nj, ny, and cali could become red states.



Kasz216 said:
HappySqurriel said:

In the context of the original post, I do think that it is interesting that Obama is leading in national polls while sites like pollster.com and electoral-vote.com show John McCain winning the electoral college. Now I could be wrong, but I suspect this is because Barack Obama is winning in states with low per-capita electoral college votes by a very wide margin, while McCain is winning states with high per-capita electoral college votes by a much smaller margin.

That has been a democratic party complaint.

The electoral college gives slightly more per capita voting power to the smaller states to make sure they  don't get bullied by the states with more people.  Well that and because of the whole slaves thing... but i mean we don't have slavery anymore.

It also hurts independents.  I mean Ross Perot got 12% of the vote or something crazy like that... yet no electoral votes.  If he got electoral votes his party could of really stuck around as a real third option.

There are advantages to it as well and a lot of problems with a direct popular vote format.  So it's an interesting conudrum.

Also, the electoral vote is redistrubted once every 10 years, so every 10 years California is way behind in electoral power.  The population (and thus % of popular vote) here grows insanely fast, but our % of electoral vote grows super slow in big steps decades apart.  At any given election, your vote in Ohio is worth more than my vote in California.  Not to mention that the Electoral College mandates that campaigns only care about swing states.

And Ross Perot got 18.9% of the popular vote in 1992!!!  Then 8.8% in 1996.  Either way, the electoral college has become a scam that keeps us stuck with a 2 party system and makes the popular vote meaningless.  It's a good way to distribute Congressmen and Senators, sure, but they don't need to re-calculate votes based on those numbers anymore.



The Ghost of RubangB said:
Kasz216 said:
HappySqurriel said:

In the context of the original post, I do think that it is interesting that Obama is leading in national polls while sites like pollster.com and electoral-vote.com show John McCain winning the electoral college. Now I could be wrong, but I suspect this is because Barack Obama is winning in states with low per-capita electoral college votes by a very wide margin, while McCain is winning states with high per-capita electoral college votes by a much smaller margin.

That has been a democratic party complaint.

The electoral college gives slightly more per capita voting power to the smaller states to make sure they  don't get bullied by the states with more people.  Well that and because of the whole slaves thing... but i mean we don't have slavery anymore.

It also hurts independents.  I mean Ross Perot got 12% of the vote or something crazy like that... yet no electoral votes.  If he got electoral votes his party could of really stuck around as a real third option.

There are advantages to it as well and a lot of problems with a direct popular vote format.  So it's an interesting conudrum.

Also, the electoral vote is redistrubted once every 10 years, so every 10 years California is way behind in electoral power.  The population (and thus % of popular vote) here grows insanely fast, but our % of electoral vote grows super slow in big steps decades apart.  At any given election, your vote in Ohio is worth more than my vote in California.  Not to mention that the Electoral College mandates that campaigns only care about swing states.

And Ross Perot got 18.9% of the popular vote in 1992!!!  Then 8.8% in 1996.  Either way, the electoral college has become a scam that keeps us stuck with a 2 party system and makes the popular vote meaningless.  It's a good way to distribute Congressmen and Senators, sure, but they don't need to re-calculate votes based on those numbers anymore.

Yes you are correct. States like CA, Florida, S.C., Texas, Arizona, Neveda, and N.M. would be a bit higher now than they were last census, and states like Illinois, Mich, Wis, P.A., NY, and such would be a tad lower. But I do not think it affect the election too much. Since some are red states and some are blue. Maybe 2-4 points overall.

 



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

About state polls, many of the electoral college polls do an average. Today a batch of polls done before the major bailouts came out, messing with the averages.



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