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Forums - Sony - Why the 10-year plan is feasible...

Pristine20 on 16 September 2008
HappySqurriel said:
Pristine20 said:

This is what sony is/should be devs don't need the extra processing power, why have it? I don't get it. You seem to be greeing with me yet arguing at the same time. Sony was smart in the hard drive case. Space wise, word is that the ps3 can actually go up to 1.5 tera bytes so it'll be around. Heard of the 160gb ps3? Thats a sign of future SKU's to come.

 

 

 

No, I'm not saying developers don't need the extra processing power, I'm saying they will be far more responsible about producing games at a development cost that the sales of the game will justify.

The question is "Do you think if Microsoft had 'overbuilt' the Zune in 2005 that it would be able to compete with the iPod Touch today?"

1. Zune was never that  much better than the ipod (hardware wise)

2. Even if it was, it was basically unnoticeable because an mp3 file is an mp3 file, they all play the same thing

3. Notice that the only new thing about the ipod touch is it's functionality (i.e it still does the same old stuff:play the same music and video). The gaming industry is different since game performance actually changes unlike music files. The ps3 isn't bottlenecked like the ps2 and the ipod were in this area because of its firmware and the ability to release new accesories. If touchscreen becomes the way to input, a touchscreen controller can be released, if motion is the only way, a wii-like nunchuk can be released, if virtual reality is the way to control, a more advanced eyetoy can be released. Get the drift? Other minor things can be updated by firmware untill the flashdrive finally fills up but we're talking YEARS here.

 



"Dr. Tenma, according to you, lives are equal. That's why I live today. But you must have realised it by now...the only thing people are equal in is death"---Johann Liebert (MONSTER)

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It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives"---Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler

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Pristine20 on 16 September 2008
RolStoppable said:
Pristine20 said:
RolStoppable said:

First, I agree with HS. Only the winning systems have long lifespans.

Second, you have it backwards. It's not Nintendo who has to catch up to current standards with their console, it's Sony.

I'm talking hardware specs...the wii is more powerful than the "over-engineered" machine now? You lost me...

No, that's not what I meant.

Graphics have hit the point where they are considered to be good enough, I think we agree on this. Now you think this will help the PS3 to have a long life, because obviously its graphics are good enough if the Wii's graphics are good enough. But this argument counts for both systems, so graphics won't be the reason why they feel outdated.

So something else comes into play: The controller and the user interface. The Wii is ahead of the PS3 in this regards and it will stay that way forever, because peripherals which aren't standard for a console usually fail due to lack of 3rd party support. The market has decided that the Wii is the way to go, so it's Sony who is in need of introducing a new console first, not Nintendo.

And motion controls can't be released for the current ps3 because it can't use two types of controllers like the wii right?

 



"Dr. Tenma, according to you, lives are equal. That's why I live today. But you must have realised it by now...the only thing people are equal in is death"---Johann Liebert (MONSTER)

"WAR is a racket. It always has been.

It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives"---Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler

Dgc1808 on 16 September 2008

I think ps3 willl get the ps1/2 treatment. A side console generating profit while there is a different console as the main. But I don't think PS4 will be here for a while. Nintendo and SONY [IMO] will have the Wii and PS3 selling units for quite some time as the main console. Don't know what to say about MS.....



4 ≈ One

BoleroOfFire on 16 September 2008
Pristine20 said:
HappySqurriel said:
leo-j said:
HappySqurriel said:

You can make all the reasons why the 10 year plan might possibly work, but the reality is that the only systems to (really) survive past the beginning of the next generation were the market leaders. The reason for this is simple, the market leader has value beyond its processing power and features because of its large library and solid support from third party publishers.

 

 So?

The ps3 isnt selling like crap like the xbox or gc were, and sony has a huge 1st party studio bigger than nintendo's as well.

The ps3 is selling very well, and jus tbecause its not selling better than paper(wii) doesnt mean its dead.

 

 

I never said that the PS3 was dead ...

What you seem to miss though is that projects on the scale of PS3 games have only (really) been justified because of the combined XBox 360, PS3 and PC market and as the minimum requirements of most PC games surpass the HD consoles abilities (within 12 to 18 months) and the XBox 360 is replaced (within 24 months) it will become very difficult to justify PS3 development; consider that Gamecube/XBox games were about 1/4 to 1/2 of PS3 development which means that the PS3 would need a userbase of 40 Million to 80 Million people before it was as good of a prospect to support as the XBox and Gamecube were.

Now, beyond that you have to consider who is currently (and fore the foreseeable future) buying the PS3 ... early adopter graphic-whore/videophiles ... these people are the most likely to buy into the "next generation" of consoles being that they will (easily) surpass the current generation of consoles in every way while still maintaining an affordable price point.

But you're missing the fact that there would be NO more uber-powerful consoles again. This gen, the wii taught everyone a lesson. Hence, those looking for power would have only the PC to look upon. 

You're also missing the fact that ps3 dev costs would have fallen greatly by then and  new consoles would spike such costs again. Most publishers aren't willing to go through that spike again. 

It is also possible for the ps3 to be between 40-80 million by then because it could have reached the $200 sweet spot where most sales are generated at that time. Also M$ themselves may not be too much in a hurry to release a new system.

Only ninty needs a new system due to hardware specs but they are the market leader and would love to sit on their laurels for as long as possible so me just may not be seeing new hardware in a while. In the previous episode, Pachter even suggests that the ps3 and 360 may be the norm for a LONG time like the SDTV because people seem to be satisfied with wii graphics even so whats the rush?

 

If that were the case then developers would only make games for the PS2.  Why bother spiking costs to develop for the 7th gen consoles? 

Sony will have to release a console before Nintendo as the PS3 is unlikely to lead this gen.  Natural selection has deemed the Wii to be stronger (note: I'm not referring to its hardware).  The rule is simple: adapt (e.g. release a new console) or die.   

 



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TWRoO on 16 September 2008
obieslut said:
i agree, the ps3 is the most future proof machine out of anything that has come out this gen.

the ps3 will have the longest life span out of any console ever made.

NES - 20 years
SNES - 14 years
Atari 2600 - ?? I think it was around 20 years as well.

And Gameboy (handheld console) - 14 years

---

Those are the hardware lives anyway... supporting software for NES/SNES stopped 1-2 years earlier (so 18 years and 12 years).... although for GameBoy a small amount of software was shipped through to 2006, so 17 years.

 



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patjuan32 on 16 September 2008

Sony is not going to stick with the PS3 for 10 years. They will keep the same architecture as the PS3 for the PS4, which will make it backward compatible with the PS3. Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony will have a new console on the market before the 10 year period. Besides gamers like the latest and greatest consoles as well as developers. Most if not all Western developers have left the PS2 and Most JRPG developers have moved own as well. This is what happened to the PSX, which had decent support during the first year of the PS2's life span but new software began to dry up and a lot of shovel ware was released for the system because of it's user base. Also the PS2 is on a constant decline in Japan and it has nothing to do with Sony. Consumers are moving to the newer platforms and portables.

This leads to my next point. The portable market has grown and will continue to grow. Developers are developing games for them and the costs are low and the returns are high. A lot of companies can survive and flourish just by supporting the portable market. The rising cost of develop for the home console will cause more developers to depend on the sales of portable games and will become part of their strategic plan. Therefore a console languishing in the market to recoup cost will falter. There are too many alternatives that will provide developers and publishers with funds to sustain or grow their company. Note: do not forget about the cell phone market. That area is growing really fast.



If Nintendo is successful at the moment, it’s because they are good, and I cannot blame them for that. What we should do is try to be just as good.----Laurent Benadiba

 

Alby_da_Wolf on 16 September 2008

@sieanr: I agree, a ten year plan doesn't exclude that PS3 will be the main console for a shorter period and will end its life as the low end model, just like PS2 is doing.
And in 4 to 5 years, due to HW progress and cost reduction, all three Sony, MS and Nintendo will be able to produce consoles 4 times as powerful as their current ones (Nintendo even more) at a cost lower than the current, and much lower than current gen launch prices, obviously a 4x computing power increase isn't as radical as PS2->PS3, but more than enough. Full BC will be easy and cheap too, if all will stick with evolutions of their current architectures, and Sony will be able to give PS2 BC too with very little costs, by then.

Edit:

@Pristine20: I think too that granting to 3rd party SW developers a long life for the platform makes wonders to please them.

One thing I'd like to add: BD movies are starting having more affordable prices, this is another help, maybe getting smaller as BD players get cheaper, but stil a help.



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Chrizum on 16 September 2008

I don't know, the PS3 is still the least succesful console of this generation. I can see it being relevant through 2013, no longer.



FilaBrasileiro on 16 September 2008

The PS3 is self sustainable though therefore it is not losing money. Can you please post a link to the gametrailers video you talked about on #4?



Squilliam on 16 September 2008

In 2011 at 32nm process node a console manufacturer will be able to release a console which is at least 4x more powerful than the current generation of consoles on half as much silicon. Progress is always going to happen and people won't understand why such power is needed until it actually starts being used.



Tease.